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Sunday, July 19, 2020

(A) Climate models can be wrong for 30 years and still be right

REFERENCE:
Maher et al., (2020) 
Quantifying the role 
of internal variability 
n the temperature 
we expect to observe 
in the coming decades, 

Environmental Research Letters, 
Volume 15, Number 5


ANALYSIS:
Climate science models 
have over-predicted 
global warming, 
by 2x to 3x,
since the 1970s.

In real science, that would
prove their assumptions
about climate change were
wrong.

Yet they claim their models 
are better than ever.

Any discrepancy from reality
is just "internal variability".

This new study documents 
the dominance of internal 
variability in decadal-scale 
global temperature changes.

Claiming the models 
are right even if 
we experience
a global cooling trend 
during the next 
15 or even 30 years,
despite rising 
greenhouse gases.


From the paper:
"We confirm that 
in the short-term, 
surface temperature trend 
projections are dominated 
by internal variability, 
with little influence 
of structural model 
differences or warming 
pathway. 

Additionally we demonstrate 
that this result is independent 
of the model-dependent 
estimate of the magnitude 
of internal variability."

"Internal variability" 
is the approved term.

If you say "natural variability",
instead of "internal variability;
the leftists will character
attack you !

Warming. 

Blame man made CO2.

Cooling. 

Blame man made CO2.

Your knee hurts.

Blame man made CO2.

CO2 causes 'everything'.