Zhang, Y., Wang, S.,
Zhang, X., Hu, Q.
and Zheng, C.
2020
Association between
moderately cold temperature
and mortality in China.
Environmental Science
and Pollution Research
doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08960-5.
SUMMARY:
Approximately 90%
of the temperature
related deaths
from this study
were attributed
to cold weather
Climate alarmists
keep predicting
global warming
will increase
human death
rates.
It is cold weather,
not warm weather,
that causes
excess deaths.
Extreme cold
kills far more people
than extreme heat.
That has been known
by doctors for over
a century !
DETAILS:
Zhang et al. (2020)
studied 15 Chinese cities
using data from 2010-2016.
They looked at
daily mortality and
meteorological data
from the capital cities
of 12 provinces
(Harbin, Changchun,
Shenyang, Urumqi,
Shijiazhuang, Xining,
Lanzhou, Nanjing,
Hefei, Chengdu,
Kunming, and
Guangzhou)
and three
municipalities
(Beijing, Tianjin,
and Shanghai).
The fifteen locations
were well-distributed
latitudinally from
23 to 46°N.
Results in Figure 1 below,
show the overall cumulative
exposure-response
curves for the
15 locations along
with their corresponding
minimum mortality
temperatures (MMT) and
histograms of the
frequency distribution
of average daily
temperatures.
Calculated attributable
mortality fraction due to
non-optimum temperatures
( both hot and cold )
are presented for each city.
The MMT varied in each
of the cities from
the 71st to 93rd
percentiles of
temperatures,
with an average
78th percentile.
Because the MMT
is higher than the 50th
temperature percentile,
these data suggest
human adaptation
and preference
for temperatures
on the warm side
of the observed
temperature
spectrum.
For calculations of
attributable mortality
fractions (AMF).,
Zhang et al. report that
"over all the cities,
the total attributable
fraction of mortality
caused by non-optimum
temperature, including
both cold and heat,
was 12.65%,"
varying from 7.03%
in Kunming to 21.07%
in Xining.
The mean AMF for all cities
due to cold weather was
11.38%, but only 1.27%
for hot weather.
Cold weather
is far more deadly
-- the AMF value
is nine times greater
in this study.
Figure 1.
Histograms of the
frequency of the
daily average
temperatures
in the 15
Chinese cities.
Vertical solid lines
represent city-specific
minimum mortality
temperature (MMT).
The lines
(red lines on the right)
above and below
(blue lines on the left)
MMT refer to the cold
and hot effects,
respectively.
Shaded areas
represent 95%
confidence intervals
(CI).
The attributable mortality
fractions for both cold
(AMFC) and hot (AMFH)
temperatures for each city
are also presented.
