SUMMARY:
The observed
(measured)
50-year
trend is only
+0.086 C./decade
of regional warming.
(a barely significant trend).
The older CMIP5
average of
42 computer model
trends is 4x as large
at +0.343 C./decade
of regional warming.
The latest CMIP6
average of 13 new
computer models
(13 available now)
is 5.7x as large,
at +0.495 C./decade
of regional warming.
Regional temperature
forecasts by computer
models, even when
averaged, make the
so-called models
look like the
silly computer
games they are.
The global
average
temperature
predictions
are also inaccurate,
as you should expect.
But they seem fine
for 'goobermint' work,
and the mass media
never report on their
inaccuracy.
So you could infer
that government
bureaucrats with
science degrees
are paid for scary
climate forecasts,
whose accuracy
does not matter.
This climate con game
to frighten the general
public, has been
in progress
since the 1970's.
A frightened citizen
usually calls on
his or her government
to "do something".
And that is exactly
what leftist politicians
want to hear !
More power
to save
the world
(from a fake,
always coming,
since the 1970s,
but it never arrives,
climate "crisis" ) !
Let's consider
a new review
of the climate
computer games:
On July 3rd, 2020,
Roy W. Spencer, PhD,
wrote in his blog:
"For the last 10 years I have consulted for grain growing interests, providing information about past and potential future trends in growing season weather that might impact crop yields.
Their primary interest is the U.S. corn belt, particularly the 12 Midwest states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Oklahoma, the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Michigan) which produce most of the U.S. corn and soybean crop.
I realize this is just one season (summer) in one region (the U.S. Midwest), but it is immensely important.
The U.S. is the world leader in production of corn (which is used for feed, food, and fuel) and behind only Brazil in soybean production.
Blatantly false claims of observed change in Midwest climate have fed the popular opinion that U.S. crops are already feeling the negative effects of human-caused climate change, despite the facts.
Contrary to popular perception, the U.S. Midwest has seen little long-term summer warming. For precipitation, the slight drying predicted by climate models in response to human greenhouse gas emissions has not occurred ... .
The following analysis includes the available model output at the KNMI Climate Explorer website.
The temperature observations come from the statewide data at NOAA’s Climate at a Glance website.
For the Midwest U.S. in the summer (June-July-August) we see that there has been almost no statistically significant warming in the last 50 years, whereas the CMIP6 models appear to be producing even more warming than the CMIP5 models did."
CHART BELOW:
"Fifty years (1970-2019) of U.S. corn belt summer (JJA) warming since 1970 from observations (blue);
the previous CMIP5 climate models (42 model avg., green);
and the new CMIP6 climate models (13 model avg., red).
The three time series have been vertically aligned so their trend lines coincide in the first year (1970), which is the most meaningful way to quantify the long-term warming since 1970.
While the CMIP6 trend will change somewhat as more models are added, it is consistent with the report that the CMIP6 models are producing more average warming than their CMIP5 predecessors.
I am showing the average of the available models rather than individual models, because it is the average of the models which guides the UN IPCC reports and thus energy policy."