"Warming" is worse than we thought ... because climate models keep getting worse

SUMMARY:

Once again 

the UN's  IPCC 

is about to tell us 

( expected in 2021 ) 

to trust an average 

of climate computer 

games, that have 

consistently 

over-predicted

global warming 

since the 1970's ?

The IPCC 

uses an average

to obscure 

the only model 

with a good 

track record:

 -- INM-CM, 

a Russian 
climate model 

that currently 
guesses 

about +1.9⁰ C. 

of global warming 

from a doubling

of the CO2 level, 

which is 
more warming 

than we've had 
since 1975

( even if you assume, 

a worst case,

with no proof,

that ONLY CO2 

causes global 

warming. )

but at least it is

a reasonable guess,

relative to actual

warming in the past.

What do you call it when

climate models consistently 

over-predict global warming,

for 50 years in a row, and the

ONLY model that seems to 

work well ( Russian INM-CM ) 

is deliberately obscured, 

by averaging predictions

of dozens of almost all

"too hot" climate models 

together ?

That is called science fraud !

And if a computer game 

makes wrong predictions,

as almost all do, then they are

just expensive computer games,

not real models of any climate

change science on our planet !

As I have said here, about 

1,267 times before, a computer 

model predicts whatever its

owners want predicted.

A model produces a personal

opinion, not real data, such as

measurements and observations

of the real world.

DETAILS:

The coming climate change crisis

has been "coming" since the 1970s.

We've been hearing 

predictions of 

a climate crisis

for 45 to 50 years !

This is NOT about an actual

climate crisis, just an imaginary

crisis "coming" in the future.

 The "crisis" is alleged to start 

after 325 years of intermittent

global warming, since the 1690s,

which has made the climate

more moderate, and 

more pleasant.

It is claimed that global warming

will continue, which I celebrate

here in Michigan USA !

And that is a reasonable guess !

But FUTURE global warming 

is claimed to be 100% bad news, 

completely the opposite of 

PAST warming, which was 

100% good news.

There is no logical reason 

to make that wild guess 

year after year !

We have already had 

at least +1.5 degrees C. 

of global warming,

possibly +2 degrees C. 

since the 1690s,

and one of the 

biggest climate changes 

has been warmer winter 

nights in Alaska,

( at least since 1975 ).

Back in 2016 some scientists 

compared climate models with 

reality since 1979.

They picked 1979 only because

a new, and potentially much more

accurate measurement, 

began in 1979.

The use of weather satellites 

to indirectly measure warming 

in the troposphere !

Why the troposphere ?

The troposphere is the

most important location

because that's where 

greenhouse gas warming

actually happens.

The troposphere is not 

warmed by man made 

land use changes

and economic growth 

near the thermometers.

Only a small area near both

poles is missed by satellites,

and has to be guessed.

Surface "measurements"

include far more guessing

for areas with 

no thermometers,

and/or missing data.

1979 happens to be 

the satellite data

starting point, 

but 1979 is also

just a few years 

after the current 

period of warming 

began in 1975.

A 1979 staring point 

makes climate models

look their best ... 

yet they still average 

predictions of 

100% more warming (2x)

than actually happened.

In fact, CO2 levels began rising

after 1940, especially after 1950.

And there was no surface warming

measured from 1940 to 1975,

before the weather satellite era.

If you started measurements

in 1940, the climate model 

predictions would average 

close to triple (3x) 

the actual warming,

especially if you excluded

the one Russian model 

that seems to work well.

Every seven years 
the United Nations 

Intergovernmental 
Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC) 
forecasts the average 

global temperature 
in 2100, or even 

beyond.

Calculations based on 

“general circulation models,” 

or more comprehensive 

“earth system models.”

Each report is based on 
a batchof models 
grouped together as the 

“Coupled Model 
Intercomparison 

Project”  (CMIP). 

The fifth batch, 

CMIP5, was used for

the 2013) IPCC report.

CMIP models 
can be accessed

at a Netherlands website 

known as KNMI 
Climate Explorer. 

The Russian INM-CM4 

(Institute for 

Numerical Mathematics–

Climate Model Four), 

predicted the least warming 

of all the CMIP5 models.

The 2013 IPCC 

report predicted 

a climate “sensitivity” 

( average global warming 

resulting from the doubling 

of atmospheric carbon dioxide ) 

of  +1.5⁰C to +4.5⁰C, 

a guess from the 1970s, 

that never seemed to change.

The sensitivity of the "cold"

Russian model was +2.1⁰C.

at that time.

The CMIP6 batch of models 

are gradually being released 

to the public, and so far,

the range of global warming 

predictions is even larger 

than before. 

This suggests an even larger 

over-prediction of future 

global warming is coming 

next year !

The revised 

Russian 

INM-CM4.8 

model actually 

dropped 

its sensitivity 

to +1.8⁰C, 

down from +2.1 C.

and their 

next-generation 

model, INM-CM5, 

assumes about 

+1.9⁰ C. of CO2 

sensitivity.

Fourteen of the 

40 CMIP6 models 

( available at the time)

had sensitivities 

higher than 

the upper limit of the 

UN’s 2013 range, with two 

at a scary +5.6⁰C. by 2100 !

For over 40 years, the sensitivity 

has been wild guessed with a 

HUGE  +1.5⁰C  to +4.5⁰C. range.

CMIP6 seems to be heading 

toward an even larger

+1.5⁰C to +6.0⁰C.  range !