The coming
climate crisis,
allegedly coming
since the 1970s,
is based on climate
computer games
that often use the
RCP8.5.worst-case
CO2 emissions
growth rate scenario.
Fears is driven by
the worst case
RCP8.5 scenario.
RCP stands for
“Representative
Concentration
Pathways”
-- guesses of
how much CO2
will accumulate
in the air, from
burning fossil fuels,
in one century.
The United Nations’
Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
created four RCP
scenarios a decade ago.
RCP2.6 refers to
a low CO2 emission
scenario.
In the middle are
RCP4.5 and RCP6.0.
RCP8.5 predicts
unprecedented
increases in global
CO2 emissions.
For RCP8.5:
From the 1920s to 2000,
global coal consumption
stayed between 15 and 20
gigajoules per capita,
peaking at 20 in 1960,
falling back to 15 by 2000,
then rising to about 23
earlier this decade with the
industrialization of China
and India.
The International Energy
Agency expects coal use
will gradually return to the
15-20 gigajoule per capita
range by 2040.
But the RCP8.5 scenario
guesses that coal use
will rise to about
30 gigajoules by 2040,
45 gigajoules by 2060 and
70 gigajoules by 2100.
No one seriously
believes that a
"return to coal"
will happen !
RCP8.5 also projects
so much economic growth
that today’s poor countries
will be richer in 2100
than the wealthiest
countries are today !
RCP8.5 is a VERY unlikely
worst-case scenario.
Yet many scientists
and economists
have been using RCP8.5
as a 'business-as-usual'
forecast.
Climate Alarmist Game:
-- Feed RCP8.5 into
a climate model,
predict a catastrophe,
then call it the “likely”
scenario if we don’t
radically cut CO2
emissions.
A more realistic
business-as-usual
RCP scenario
would make
future global warming
estimates harmless,
just as actual global
warming in the past
325 years has been.
Such a study
would not get
any media
attention.
Last fall, in
Nature magazine,
climate experts
Zeke Hausfather and
Glen Peters scolded
colleagues for
misleading the public
by using RCP8.5,
and thereby distorting
the policy debate.
In the 1970s and 1980s,
scientists also made
CO2 projections
-- reality came in
near the bottom end:
For at least 30 years
the IPCC has used
exaggerated CO2
emissions growth
scenarios.
Atmospheric sensitivity
to CO2 estimates
are also
much higher than
justified by actual
measured warming
in the past 75 years
( based on a worst
case estimate assuming,
with no proof,
that rising CO2 levels
were the ONLY cause
of past global warming.)
RCP8.5 takes
climate alarmism
to new heights.