Originally titled: "The Math of the Paris Agreement", but who would ever click on that? Concerning the voluntary Paris Climate Agreement. I see it as political virtue signaling at its worst -- with no penalties for missing CO2 emissions targets. And a goal of net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 is not feasible. The +1.5C pathway requires global emissions to be at least 55% lower in 2030 than in 2019 (25 gigatons versus 55 gigatons). But the Paris Agreement Article 4.1 exempts the developing nations from any obligation to even constrain their CO2 emissions growth before 2030, let alone cut their CO2 emissions !
Here's the math:
Developing nations
current CO2 emissions
are about
-- 35 Gigatons,
-- with 40 expected in 2030,
under current policies.
Developed nations
current CO2 emissions
are about
20 Gigatons,
with 20 expected in 2030,
under current policies.
So, in total, the current
global CO2 emissions are about
-- 55 Gigatons (35 + 20),
-- with 60 (40 + 20) expected in 2030,
under current policies.
The 2030 Paris Agreement
target is 25 Gigatons.
To achieve that science-free,
arbitrary target of +1.5C,
developed countries
would have to reduce
their CO2 emissions
to a negative number !
That is not reasonable !
That is not feasible !
That;s an idiotic, arbitrary goal
to reduce the CO2 level,
on a planet
whose current CO2 level
is unusually low, based on
geologic history !
End of ranting and raving.
The truth has been told.
And I feel better now!