THE BIG PICTURE:
The US climate
is LESS extreme,
or more moderate,
than it used to be.
The US average
land surface
temperature is
slightly warmer,
over the
past century
but that appears
to have been
BENEFICIAL.
NOTE:
I'm using official data for the U.S., mainly from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Of course I do not trust anything official, because bureaucrats are mainly leftists, and leftists WANT to show more global warming and more extreme weather events. Leftists also lie a lot. ... But I decided to summarize these official data, even if biased, because they show little U.S. warming since the 1990s, and a more moderate U.S. climate today, with FEWER extreme weather events.
I know you will never hear that from the biased mainstream media. Would they be honest and tell you the climate is wonderful ? Of course not ! Climate alarmists areso dumb they don't realize more moderate weather is one symptom of a greenhouse gas warming. Significant warming of the Arctic, with less warming of the of the tropics, REDUCES the temperature differential between the Arctic and the tropics. That reduced temperature differential should result in a more moderate climate in the Northern Hemisphere, and in the U.S. too. And that is EXACTLY what has happened,in spite of what you hear -- the hysterical false warnings, and always wrong scary climate predictions, from the "climate change howlers".
SUMMARY:
• The average
U.S. temperatures
rose by
+ 0.15°F. per decade
since 1895, with the
increase much larger
in the winter.
• Little rise
in temperatures
since the
mid 1990s.
• Summers
were hottest
in the 1930s.
• Heat waves were
LESS intense
after 1960.
• Cold spells are
much LESS severe
than they used to be.
• Central and Eastern regions
have become wetter, with a
large REDUCTION of drought.
Little change in the West.
• The climate is wetter,
but floods are NOT
getting worse.
• Hurricanes are
NOT more frequent,
or more powerful.
• Tornadoes are
LESS common,
especially the
stronger ones.
• Sea-level rise
is NOT faster than
in the 20th century.
• Wildfires now burn
only a small FRACTION
of the acreage burned
before World War II.
DETAILS:
TEMPERATURE:
A rapid rise until about 1940, the a decline until the 1970s, even as the atmospheric CO2 concentration rose. Then a rapid rise to the 1990s, but almost no U.S. warming since then. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures increased by +0.13°F and + 0.17°F per decade, respectively. Winter temperatures increased +0.23°F. per decade. Summer and fall temperatures rose +0.11°F. per decade. Winter, spring and fall thad little or no warming since the mid-1990s. Summers had a steady warming since the mid-1990s, but are still lower today than in the 1930s.
Much higher temperatures were experienced in most of the US prior to 1960. And not just the 1930s. Temperatures were also high in the 1910s, 1920s and 1950s. Heat waves peaked before the 1960s. No extreme heat waves since the 1980s, except for the hot summer of 2012. There was a significant reduction in extreme cold spells over the 20th century.
WARNING: Large "adjustments" were made to the US temperature record by NOAA around 1999, REDUCING temperatures in the 1930s by around 0.9°F. ! ... I suppose people in the 1930s were not smart enough to read a mercury thermometer? Or maybe NOAA didn't want the 1930s to be recorded as the hottest U.S. decade?
RAIN and SNOW:
Precipitation has been increasing since the 1950s. The trend since 1895 has been +0.19 inch per decade, making the average precipitation today about 10% higher than in 1895. The wettest year was 1973. More important is the absence of extremely dry years -- last one was 1988.
In most regions, droughts were most severe during the 1930s and 1950s. In the northwest, the worst droughts were in the 1920s -- the 1960s for the northeast. In he west, recent droughts matched earlier ones, but are NOT more frequent, or more severe, than ever before in that region. In every region there was a decline in the frequency of extremely dry years.
The southwest had a much higher number of wet years in the 1910s and 1980s. Since 1990, the southwest has returned to normal. The upper Midwest, northern Rockies and Ohio Valley had their highest frequency of extremely wet years in the last decade.
Overall, most of the US now has a wetter climate than it did in the early 20th century. But extremely wet years in the last two decades are not unprecedented. A US Geological Survey in 2011 analyzed 200 stream gauges in four regions across the US. It found that none of the 200 regions had evidence of flood magnitudes increasing.
A 2017 study, by Hodgkins et al., reviewed major floods from 1204 sites in North America and Europe. It found the number of significant trends was about the what was expected due to chance alone. Changes in major floods were dominated by the Atlantic Ocean Multi-decadal Oscillation, a natural climate cycle unrelated to CO2, rather than by long-term trends.
HURRICANES:
NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD) compiles Atlantic hurricanes that made U.S. landfall in the lower 48 states since 1851. During the Civil War period, however. no hurricanes were recorded. Since 1851 there have been 294 hurricanes, an average of 1.7 per year --but only 10 in the last decade, well below average. Many years had no hurricanes making landfall, but then 1886 had seven ! No data suggest hurricanes making landfall are becoming more frequent.
Major hurricanes are defined as Category 3 to Category 5. The years 2004 and 2005 had seven major hurricanes! But the following 11 years set a record with NO major hurricanes making U.S. landfall. No data suggest major hurricanes making landfall are becoming more frequent.
There have also been 18 Category 4 hurricanes since 1900, with the busiest decades being the 1940s and 1950s. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes combined have actually been declining, in both frequency and strength, during recent decades ... although that statistic may be data mining.
TORNADOES:
WARNING: Official U.S. data go back to 1950, but records were unreliable prior to 1970. Satellites, Doppler radar, cell phones, development of spotter networks by National Weather Service (NWS) offices, and a much larger population, make it much easier to spot tornadoes in recent decades. There are now damage assessments by NWS teams for tornadoes not one person actually witnessed in real time. Many of the weaker tornadoes, that would have gone unrecorded in the past, are now being recorded.
Tornadoes are categorized by wind speeds on the Fujita Scale, from the weakest EF-0, to the strongest EF-5. The EF-0 and EF-1 tornado count has dramatically increased with new technology to spot them. NOAA advises to look at only EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes, whose records are much more consistent. Since 1970, EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes have had a DECLINING trend. EF-4s and EF-5s have sharply DECLINED. Not one EF-5 tornado has been spotted since May 2013, the second longest "quiet" period on record. This compares with a total of 36 EF-5s spotted since 1970.
SEA LEVEL RISE:
The relative sea level is the mean sea level related to a local reference land level. It includes and movement AND sea level changes (the height of the ocean relative to the center of the Earth).
U.S. land movement is mainly isostatic -- happening after the melting of the huge and heavy glaciers, from about 20,000 to 10,000 years ago. The land gradually rebounds without the weight of the ice on it. The area to the south of where the glaciers were tilts downwards to maintain equilibrium. The land is rising in the northeast, but from New York south to Florida, the coast is sinking by -0.5 to -3.0mm per year. There's land subsidence (SINKING) due to water extraction and construction too. The Mississippi Delta is subsiding rapidly due to dredging of channels. and destruction of wetland flora, which have led to erosion.
So we end up with a wide range of sea-level rise along the east coast, from +1.89 mm per year in Maine, to +4.7 mm per year at Sewell's Point, in the heart of Chesapeake Bay -- the site of a huge old comet or meteor crater from about 35 million years ago, that causes land to sink under the water! The Battery sea gauge in Manhattan, New York City, and Fernandinha Beach gauge in Florida, are more typical of the coast, with long-term rises of +2.87mm and +2.15mm per year, respectively. After allowing for land subsidence (sinking) of about -1mm and -0.5mm per year, respectively, the absolute sea-level rise can be estimated at about +1.8 mm per year. San Diego, on the west coast, is +2.20mm per year. There's NO evidence of an acceleration of sea-level rise due to global warming. If you don't believe me, check out the links to many tide gauges on stable bedrock that have long term records, from around the world:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9410170
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9414290
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8726520
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8452660
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=9447130
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8771450
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8670870
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8665530
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8461490
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8443970
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8638610
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8418150
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8534720
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=2695540
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=1619910
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=1820000
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=1612340
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=1890000
U.S. STATE TEMPERATURE
AND RAIN RECORDS:
NOAA's State Climate Extremes Committee, since 2006, reviews all potential new state temperature records, and also the records previously declared. The process is detailed, including weather station site visits. Half of the U.S state high temperature records were set in the 1930s, with the 1910s also a high decade. There have only been three state heat records set in the last two decades. The distribution of 1930s heat records was wide, ranging from Pennsylvania, to Florida, to Montana, to North Dakota, and even to Hawaii. Twenty-three state heat records were set in 1936, but records also fell in 1930, 1931, 1934 and 1937.
State rainfall records, for a 24 hour period, show a clear increase in frequency, peaking in the 1990s. Although the number of state records in the last two decades fell back to the level of the 1960s, and 1970s. Rainfall records may be skewed by the growth in the number of recording stations from the 1950s, which increases the chance of recording a local extreme rain event.
The raw data below show the United States was hotter in the past. According to NOAA's data, 23 of the 50 U.S. state all-time record high temperatures were set during the 1930s, while 36 of 50 occurred prior to 1960 (data below from July 2020):
ALABAMA
September 6, 1925,
112F (44.4C)
Sin Centreville
(about 50 miles south
of Birmingham).
ALASKA
June 27, 1915
100F (37.8C)
Fort Yukon,
located north
of the Arctic Circle.
ARIZONA
June 29, 1994.
128F (53.3C)
Lake Havasu City,
on the western edge
of Arizona, on
ARKANSAS
Ozark, located along
the Arkansas River,
recorded 120F (48.9C)
on August 10, 1936.
CALIFORNIA
July 10, 1913,
Greenland Ranch,
now Furnace Creek Ranch,
n California’s Death Valley
134F (56.7C) --
the United States’
hottest day on record.
COLORADO
114F (45.6F) twice
— once on July 1, 1933,
in Las Animas,
and again in Sedgwick
on July 11, 1954.
CONNECTICUT
106F (41.1C) twice
— in August, 1916
in Torrington,
and in July, 1995
in Danbury.
DELAWARE
Millsboro hit 110F (43.3C)
on July 21, 1930.
FLORIDA
On June 29, 1931,
Monticello in
Northern Florida
reached 109F (42.8C).
GEORGIA
Georgia’s 112F (44.4C) twice
— once in Greenville in August
of 1983, and once in Louisville
in July 1952.
HAWAII
100F (37.8C)
in Pahala in April, 1931.
IDAHO
118F (47.8C)
on July 28, 1934,
in Orofino.
ILLINOIS
Eastern St. Louis
touched 117F (47.2F)
on July 14, 1954.
INDIANA
116F (46.7C)
on July 14, 1936,
in St. Joseph County.
IOWA
Keokuk — the 118F (47.8C)
on July 20, 1934.
KANSAS
21F (49.4C) twice,
both times in 1936
— on July 18 in Fredonia,
and six days later in Alton.
KENTUCKY
Greensburg hit 114F (45.6C)
on July 28, 1930.
LOUISIANA
August 10, 1936 —
P lain Dealing 114F (45.6C).
MAINE
North Bridgton
hit 105F (40.6C)
twice in the same week
Independence Day in 1911,
and then 6 days later.
MARYLAND
109F on four
separate occasions
— twice in August 1918
in Cumberland,
once in Frederick
in July 1936, and once
on July 3, 1898,
in Boettcherville.
MASSACHUSETTS
Chester touched 107F (41.7C)
on August 2, 1975.
MICHIGAN
Stanwood
was 112F (44.4F)
on July 13, 1936.
MINNESOTA
115F (46.1C) in Beardsley
in western Minnesota
on July 29, 1917.
MISSISSIPPI
July 29, 1930,
Holly Springs
reached 115F (46.1F).
MISSOURI
Warsaw was 118F (47.8C)
on July 14, 1954.
MONTANA
117F (47.2C)
on two occasions
in Montana
— once in Glendive
in July 1983, and once near
Medicine Lake in July 1937.
NEBRASKA
Three places
hit 118F (47.8C) —
Geneva on July 15, 1934,
and both Hartington
and Minden during
the same week
in July 1936.
NEVADA
Laughlin, Nevada
125F (51.7C)
on June 29, 1994.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Independence Day in 1911,
Nashua reached 106F (41.1C).
NEW JERSEY
Old Bridge hit 110F (43.3C)
on July 10, 1936.
NEW MEXICO
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
recorded the hottest day
the 122F (50C)
on June 27, 1994.
NEW YORK
Troy reached 108F (42.2C)
on July 22, 1926.
NORTH CAROLINA
Fayetteville was 110F (43.3C)
on August 21, 1983.
NORTH DAKOTA
Steele reached 121F (49.4C)
on July 6, 1936.
OHIO
Gallipolis,
on the Ohio River,
reached 113F (45C)
on July 21, 1934.
OKLAHOMA
120F (48.9C)
reached four times
Oklahoma, all in
the year 1936
— once in Poteau,
twice in Altus,
and once in Alva.
OREGON
1898 hit 119F (48.3C) twice
— in Prineville, and in
downtown Pendleton.'
PENNSYLVANIA
Two days in a row,
July 9 and 10, 1936,
Phoenixville hit
111F (43.9C).
RHODE ISLAND
Providence hit 104F (40C)
on August 2, 1975.
SOUTH CAROLINA
The capitol
reached 113F (45C)
on June 29, 2012.
SOUTH DAKOTA
120F (48.9C) twice
— once on July 5, 1936
in Gann Valley, and again
on July 15, 2006
in Fort Pierre.
TENNESSEE
Perryville on the Tennesee River
hit 113F (45C) twice in 1930.
TEXAS
120F (48.9C) twice —
once on August 12, 1936,
in Seymour, and once
on June 28, 1994,
in Monahans.
UTAH
St. George hit 115F (46.1C)
on July 5, 1985.
VERMONT
The town of Vernon
reached 107F (41.7C)
on July 7, 1912.
VIRGINIA
100F (37.8C) three times
— twice in the first week
of July 1900 in Columbia,
and once on July 15, 1954,
in Balcony Falls, Glasgow.
WASHINGTON
118F (47.8C) twice —
once on Ice Harbor Dam
near Ash on August 5, 1961,
and once in Wahluke
on July 24, 1928.
WEST VIRGINIA
112F (44.4C) twice
— in Moorefield
on August 4, 1930
and in Martinsburg
on July 10, 1936.
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin Dells
on the Wisconsin River
hit a high of 114F (45.6C)
on July 13, 1936.
WYOMING
115F (46.1C) twice,
once in Basin
on August 8, 1983
and once on the
Diversion Dam
by Wind River
Reservation
on July 15, 1988.