First of all, the fracking industry, as a whole, has not been profitable. Investors have lost a lot of money. On the other hand, with no fracking, there would be an 80% decline in natural gas production in the United States. That lower supply would have to increase natural gas prices here.
We would not be able to export natural gas to Asia or to Europe. That would make Russia an even more important natural gas supplier -- already Europe’s largest supplier of natural gas. It also helps Australia and the UAE -- the largest natural largest suppliers of LNG to Asia.
A fracked well’s production declines rapidly. By the end of two years, the well is only producing at around 20% of what it produced originally. It continues to produce at around 10% of its initial rate for many years.
If fracking is stopped, the amount of oil produced by the United States will decline by over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) at the end of two years, i.e. , (7 mb/d x 0.8). If working from home reduces oil demand somewhat, it may only be necessary for the US to import 4 mb/d, slightly less than the decline in production. That lower U.S. supply could increase oil prices here depending on what OPEC nations do.
EU global warming policies may result in less demand for oil over the next few years. Outside the United States, demand for oil may only increase by 1 mb/d. With the US importing 4 mb/d, demand for oil from outside North America would increase 5 mb/d over the next few years.
The US will have to begin importing natural gas after about two years. The price of natural gas at the Henry Hub is currently under $2 per Million Btu, while the price for imported LNG will be at least $6 per Million Btu. There would be a need to convert LNG export terminals to LNG import terminals, and also build new LNG import terminals.
China pays little attention to climate change. China has more than 1,000 gigawatts (gw) of coal-fired electricity generating capacity, which generates 49% of the world’s coal-fired electricity, making China the world’s biggest carbon-dioxide emitter. its coal use is still expanding.