Energy geopolitics -- a new Cold War is being waged in Germany, Belarus, and Bulgaria -- all key natural gas pipeline transit states for Russian natural gas exports to European nations.
The U.S. wants to “decouple” Moscow and our EU allies. The U.S. goal is to weaken Russia's energy interests, and replace it with American and other industry competitors.
The US-backed, and Polish-led, “Three Seas Initiative” is vying to become a serious player in Central & Eastern Europe, with the construction of new LNG and oil terminals for facilitating America's plans. Any pipeline delays that increase the costs of Russian energy exports will reduce Russia's revenue from these sources, which account for 40% of its budget -- a very large dependence on energy exports.
THE FRONTS:
Germany:
Without Germany's support, Moscow's energy sales plans for Europe won't succeed. Berlin does have the chance to say no to the U.S., and ensure that the German-Russian Strategic Partnership continues. Intense U.S. pressure on the German authorities has delayed the final leg of Nord Stream II underwater natural gas pipeline.
http://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-nord-stream-2-pipeline-war-1230.html
Berlin signaled that it might rethink its commitment to this energy project, leaving everyone confused, with the pipeline almost completed, but construction stalled. America isn't all to blame, since Germany is responsible for its recent confusing and provocative statements.
Belarus
After failing to convince Lukashenko to break off ties with Russia, after this summer's Wagner incident, a plan was hatched to overthrow him so that his replacements can turn the country into another Ukraine (holding Russian energy exports to Europe hostage). It's planned that Russian pipelines will be phased out in the worst-case scenario, although this would happen gradually since Europe can't immediately replace such natural gas imports with American and other ones. “Losing” Belarus, together with Nord Stream II, would deal a heavy blow to Russia's natural gas exports.
Bulgaria
The Turkish Stream pipeline is expected to transit through this Balkan country en route to Europe, but the latest anti-government protests there threaten to topple the government! Azerbaijan's TANAP and the Eastern Mediterranean's GRISCY pipelines might help Southeastern Europe compensate for the loss of Russian resources, though the latter has yet to be constructed ,and is only in the planning stages right now. Eliminating Turkish Stream, or delaying the project, would hurt Russia's already very limited Balkan influence.