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Thursday, October 1, 2020

Wildfires -- lots of talk -- talk is cheap ... but almost no prevention -- prevention is expensive

MY  TWO  CENTS:
I've never heard climate science knowledge from President Trump until I heard him say this about the science of climate change, related to the fires in California: “I  DON’T  THINK  SCIENCE  KNOWS”  Trump got that right !   Common sense says the public utility money and resources wasted promoting and building renewable energy "farms" should have been spent on cleaning up nearby fuel and trimming the trees near transmission lines.

In the western states, up to 90% of the wildfires are considered to be human-caused, either by accident, carelessness, or deliberate. Human caused includes transmission lines, of course. Fires started by lightning however, are not a freak occurrence. That's how nature thins the forests.

The 1900 population of California was 1.5 million. Now almost 40 million, the most populous state, although the 2019 growth rate was only +0.13%. 38.5 million more people since 1900 should mean a lot more accidental fires, and more deliberately set fires too.

The State of California owns less than 3% of California’s forests. Timber companies own about 13%. Another 27% are also privately owned, but mostly by people with less than 50 acres.  The federal government owns the remaining 57%.  So President Trump blaming California Governor Newsom, for poor forest management, is ignoring the 57% majority of the forests owned by his own federal government!

Global average temperatures are irrelevant for California. It is the local California temperatures that determine how temperatures COULD be affecting fires. We don't have local temperatures for every hour of the day. But we do have minimum and maximum temperatures. WRCC data shows local maximum temperatures at the point of ignition of California’s largest fires has cooled since the 1930s. Extreme high temperatures are NOT promoting the big fires. 



California grass and chaparral are ALREADY completely dry by the end of a typical summer drought, so additional heat from local warming can't make them any drier!  About 70% of California’s 2020 burnt areas have been in grasslands. The "dead" grass is so dry by the end of California’s annual summer drought that they are totally insensitive to any added warmth from local climate change.


The "Smokey Bear Strategy" of putting out all fires while they are small helped get us where we are today. We are very successful in suppressing fires and manage to stop something like 97% of all the fires, leaving more fuel for the next fire.

Cheatgrass, an invasive weed, covers over 100 million acres in the west. But no politician will spend money to eliminate an invasive species that typically fuels wildfires in remote areas, far from big towns and cities.

Huge fires that burn more than 100,000 acres are on the rise in the western United States, the result of unintentional changes to the forests through a century of misguided forest management. The majority of poorly managed forests are on federal lands. Congress has chronically underfunded federal land management agencies responsible for fire mitigation on public lands.

Little money or effort has been spent to prevent severe fire threats. Why not promote a controlled burn, or clear dead wood? bNo, politicians forced utilities to spend that money for keeping transmission lines safe on more windmills, no matter if the power goes off when the wind does not blow.

When Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992, one of the first things he did was to meet his environmental supporters from LA, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle to promise them that he would shut down logging in the western National Forests. He kept that promise.  The U.S. government owns the majority of land in the Western USA, and most of the forest lands. Tens of thousands of loggers, logging truck drivers, planer mill operators, lumber graders, etc. were laid off in the western states, including lots of Native Americans.

When the lumber mills were in operation there were thousands of men who cut down diseased trees in the forests. They built thousands of miles of roads into the forest areas, making it easy to get back into the woods to fight fires in the outback. They also had lots of equipment that you could use to fight forest fires: caterpillar tractors, graders, fire trucks, chainsaws, and helicopters. Along with incoherent Forest Service policies that oscillated between fighting every fire, to letting them burn. The forests have been mismanaged for many decades.


Prescribed fires are needed, but are not completely safe. The Cerro Grande fire outside Los Alamos, New Mexico was a prescribed fire. Authorities lost control of it, and it burned about 430 homes. Controlled burns often cause thick smoke, exacerbated by the relatively damp fuel being burned, The danger of the fire getting out of control is too high when the fuel is dry.


I wonder about the accuracy of the claimed Australian aborigine wisdom and tradition about their forest management. Aborigines had no significant written language to transfer experiences through generations. The accounts we have today were originally verbal.  After academic and bureaucratic re-writing, maybe we have lost the Aborigine bushfire wisdom forever?
   
Primitive societies usually burn forests and scrub to make way for agriculture. We may misinterpret that as prescribed burns for forest management. When outsiders moved into Australia, they found no evidence of any wild, uncontrolled fires.


Is global warming causing forest fires that stop at the 49th parallel ?
As California and Oregon burn this year, western Canada is having a quieter than usual wildfire season due to rain, and COVID lock-downs keeping people closer to home, and away from forests.


Global fires have DECREASED, according to NASA. They still manage to put a negative spin on it, of course, but there are fewer fires.
 https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2017/nasa-detects-drop-in-global-fires
    
I'm waiting for the increased greening of the planet, caused by more CO2 in the air, to be blamed for more wildfires!


MY  ATTEMPT  AT  COMEDY:

Since most fires are started by humans, rather than lightening, I can understand how a warmer climate could lead to more fires. Warmer weather makes people less comfortable, and leads to more protests, more riots, more looting, and more arson. Just a few tenths of a degree of warming, along with the fear of a coming climate catastrophe, has a strong correlation with trouble making. And that can turn a normal soft spoken young man into a masked thrower of molotov cocktails at police, or a looter of high end stores, or a crazed arsonist. And this is based on the science of human behavior -- even a small amount of additional heat causes humans to behave like wild animals !