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Monday, February 8, 2021

Climate models are computer games that make wrong climate predictions

 Source:

 

"For the 40-year period of satellite observations of temperature trends, 1979 to 2019, the observed temperature trends are compared with model runs. 

 

The observed average warming trend is +0.17 degrees C per decade. 

 

The model average over the period is a warming of +0.40 degrees C per decade. 

 

If global climate models cannot describe what has occurred in the past 40 years, there is no logical reason that they can describe what will occur in the next 40 or 80 years.


Simply put, the UN IPCC modeling effort and its participants are not trying to understand the greenhouse effect and how greenhouse gases influence temperatures.

 

Is this what they are afraid to let the public judge?


Also interesting is the graph of the 5-year running mean of tropical temperature anomalies using CMIP-6 models (the latest being used by the IPCC). 

 

The trends from three weather balloon data sets and weather analysis data are also included. 

 

Here one can see the general agreement between satellite data, weather balloon data, and reanalysis. 

 

( but ) Since the early 1990s there is a growing disparity between observational datasets and modeling. 

 

That disparity is now greater than the actual atmospheric warming trend.


NASA announced that Gavin Schmidt, the head of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS), has become a Senior Climate Advisor to the Biden Administration. 

 

Thus, the GISS model (GISS-E2) is of particular interest among those Christy examined. 

 

It too overestimated the warming of the tropical atmosphere at 30 to 40,000 feet by about two times, though not as badly as some other models.


Hopefully, the Biden Administration will not continue the modeling deceptions. 

 

Instead, it will follow the lead of John F. Kennedy. It will be honest with the American people, and not be afraid of them."