"Car makers will face production delays on millions of electric vehicles as mining for lithium fails to keep pace with soaring demand, according to Rystad Energy.
Mining capacity can cope with current demand in electric vehicles, but car makers will face “a serious lithium supply deficit” from 2027, the energy research firm predicted.
The supply crunch is expected to hit just before the UK’s ban on new petrol and diesel sales begins in 2030.
It warned the shortage could triple the price of lithium by the end of the decade unless new investment in mines is made soon.
James Ley of Rystad Energy warned that major disruption was brewing for electric car manufacturers.
“If more mining projects are not added to the pipeline quickly, the energy transition of road transport may need to slow down,” he said.
The shortage will mean the production of 3.3m electric vehicles will be delayed in 2027, growing to 20m in 2030, according to Rystad.
Lithium is one of the key components of the rechargeable batteries used in such cars.
Rystad estimated that it can take up to seven years to get a new lithium mining project up and running.
Demand for lithium carbonate equivalent is estimated at 300,000 tonnes this year but is expected to rise to 2.8m tonnes by 2028.
“More investment decisions to build new lithium mining projects need to be added to the pipeline, and fast,” the report said.
“Although lithium-ion is not the only battery technology, it is far superior in electric vehicle applications and won’t be substituted by anything else this decade.”
Some interesting comments by readers:
"The problem as ever has been exacerbated by politics. The rush to ban ICE cars is a direct result of all and sundry falling for the climate emergency zero carbon scam. The best solutions are found through technology and innovation, not self serving politicos. As with renewable energy the true cost is slowly revealing itself and people are waking up to the impoverishment that awaits."
"It remains to be seen how long the useful life of Li-ion batteries proves to be. Also as regards any process for their recovery/scrapping. It could be that Lithium recovery is a practical proposition and therefor a secondary source of the material.
I have yet to read the details of the cost of batteries as a proportion of the total cost of cars but it could be that the battery capacity is so compromised after 5-7 years use that a new battery will be essential.
So it sounds like reality may prove expensive and a car with a dead battery will have a scrap value only. So it’s not likely that one battery will last the life of the vehicle.
A level of planned obsolescence that Detroit could have never dreamt of."
"Anyone who ever used a mobile phone or a laptop already knows exactly how long is the lifespan of lithium batteries. They last about 1000 cycles, as advertised. Or 3-4 years if you charge once in 1-2 days. So theoretically, car batteries should last long enough, if you have a 300 km range battery, and drive 12000 km a year, that amounts to just 40 full cycles a year, meaning the battery should be good for 20-25 years. But if electric cars are to be used for long distance travel, “fast” charging will probably ruin their batteries much much faster.
And as far as I know, lithium scrap isn’t worth anything, it’s much cheaper to mine and refine new lithium than to refine it from dead batteries. If prices for lithium increase due to shortage, maybe it will make sense to reprocess it. But prices for EVs will consequently increase as well."
"And just to show what fun owning a battery car would be a Tesla has crashed and burst into flames in the US. Even 4 hours and 30,000 gallons of water didn’t work so the fire crews just let it burn out.
Nobody sensible puts water on a lithium fire. It doesn’t work and hazardous gases are released.
There are chemicals readily available that snuff lithium fires and with the growing use of Li-Ion batteries in cars/trucks we should soon be seeing them on every fire truck."
" USGS estimates worldwide lithium resources to be at 80 million tonnes, and as with all minerals it is scaled upwards every year despite continued extraction, as new deposits are discovered.
NMC-811 batteries require 0.111 kg/kWh of pure metal lithium. Older technologies could use up to 25% more, but it’s unlikely they will be used in a massive EV build outs.
80 mT and 111 T/MWh amount to 720 TWh of batteries just from what is discovered today, enough to manufacture 12 billions electric cars (each with a 60 kWh battery).
You’ll run out of cobalt or nickel well before you run out of lithium. But then again, new reserves of these metals will be discovered in the future as well, and next generation batteries will almost certainly use less materials."
"The Chinese have slowly purchased many of the world’s best strategic mineral sources and they have some of the best lithium mines. Meanwhile “Sleepy Joe” is doubling down on climate change."
"Despite their superior driving/passenger characteristics, after more than a decade of commercially available EVs the percentage of them on the road belies any acceptance ……… for several reasons with the main ones being cost, range, charge time, and charge availability. Even a complicit media can’t hide the truth."
"The highest portion of cost of running a motor car is depreciation. Has anyone considered what this may be with a £20,000 plus EV? Will anyone buy a 3-4 year old car knowing it may soon need a new battery at £7,000?"