"The green-left Australian Academy of Science has produced another outburst of climate doomism: “The risks to Australia of a +3 degree C. warmer world.”
... The fourteen Academy people wrote sagely in 1976, “We conclude that there is no evidence that the world is now on the brink of a major climatic change.
There is ample evidence that the world’s climate has changed widely during the geological past, and while there is every expectation that it will continue to change in the future, the time scale of these changes is in the range of thousands to hundreds of thousands of years rather than decades or centuries.”
The Academy report of last March (is) ... a vanity project, with the authors citing their own works multiple times, especially chair
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (16 self-citations), Mark Howden (11 times)
Lesley Hughes (10 times),
Will Steffen (10 times), and
David Karoly and John Church (8 times).
Even Sarah Perkins-Kilpatrick, who is supposed to be reviewing the document, is reviewing herself as she’s cited seven times in the references.
There is scientific etiquette that a reviewer does not review his/her own prior publications, yet here we see senior climate scientists doing just that.
Reviewer Jason Evans is cited nine times.
Another reviewer is Martin Rice, who works for Tim Flannery’s propaganda outfit Climate Council, but he features only four times in the body of the report.
Perkins-Kilpatrick is convinced by her climate models that warming is turbo-charging everything (but apparently not our cool summer of 2020-21, nor the current deep freeze in the Northern Hemisphere).
The above-mentioned Will Steffen’s co-authored piece on “climate tipping points”, was headlined,
“The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.”
... The Australian Academy’s 3deg scare paper in March, also co-authored by Steffen, draws on that Steffen et al Nature article and re-produces its text and graphics of tipping point “domino effects”.
... (CO2 growth scenario) RCP8.5 assumes little mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and is associated with global warming of +4°C. or more above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
... RCP8.5 is used in the body of the report to imagine horrible warming outcomes, e.g. hailstorms
... The misuse of scenarios in climate research means that much of what we think we know about our collective climate future may be ... misleading or wrong, and as such, ‘uncomfortable knowledge’.
... The consequences of RCP (CO2 growth rates) scenario misuse include
... the creation of a vast academic literature with little to no connection to the real world, and an unwarranted emphasis on apocalyptic climate futures that influences public and policy-maker perspectives.
... The IPCC scenario process has been led by a small group of academics for more than a decade,
and decisions made by this small community have profoundly shaped the scientific literature and correspondingly, how the media and policy communities interpret the issue of climate change.
Canadian investigative journalist Donna Laframboise has provided detailed history on Professor Hoegh-Guldberg, under the header,
The WWF Activist in Charge at the IPCC (March 30, 2014).
Among other things, she accuses him of using “drama queen language”, such as this (you be the judge):
The world is currently facing the greatest challenge of all time … Humanity is at the crossroads.
The message is quite simple and the choice stark: act now or face an uncertain, potentially catastrophic future
… World leaders can change the history of the planet and directly influence the survival of millions upon millions of people …
Basically, the future is looking very gloomy unless we act immediately and decisively.
Laframboise wrote,
The fact that he has spent his career cashing cheques from Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) was no impediment to him participating in the latest [Fifth] IPCC assessment.
The geniuses there decided he wasn’t merely lead-author material, but that he deserved to be placed in charge of a chapter it’s called The Ocean.
... James Cook University’s Professor Peter Ridd was sacked in 2017 for demanding audits of alleged systemic flaws in Barrier Reef scientists’ methodology.
He’s now taken his case to the High Court.
As a further example of contested reef science, researcher Dr Jennifer Marohasy has challenged the standard methodology of assessing GBR coral die-back from the window of an aeroplane overflying at 120 metres.
She says this is too high to give realistic results and when she has dived or used a drone on the same reefs, she’s found the corals perfectly healthy.
... The Academy paper appears even more ridiculous when set against the views this month of Obama’s chief scientist of the Energy Department, physicist Steven Koonin, who is by no means a sceptic.
He expects only +1degree C. more warming this century – hardly worth spending trillions to combat and easy to adapt to.
Further, he says the scientists, politicians and the media have generated a narrative that is ... demonstrably false.
That includes the “extreme weather” meme which the IPCC itself rates as “low confidence” – and which the Academy paper touts at least 27 times.
The models can’t even agree on the current actual global temperature to within 3degrees C. while claiming 1 percent precision on key variables.
The modelers’ guesses on the temperature impact of doubled CO2 have not improved in 40 years and are now diverging even more widely, Koonin gripes.
... The Academy – its members are overwhelmingly taxpayer-funded – wants to force Australia’s blue-collars, tradies and non-public servant middle classes into unpalatable and dark-green lifestyle changes.
One example: “large-scale adoption of EVs [electric vehicles].”
Let’s check the data (the report does not).
EV sales last year were just 6,900, up a mere 182 cars on 2019.
That 6,900 total was not even 1 per cent of car sales.
To date in 2021, EV sales (excluding Teslas at $73,000 upwards but including hybrids) are just 0.6 per cent.
Last year 50 per cent of sales were fat gas-guzzling SUVs, up from 45 per cent in 2019.
The Academy wants to push us into EVs via government subsidies and by penalties/restrictions on normal cars.
... Now check back into the real world, as described in a Federal Department of Industry, Science and Energy paper published last February:
Currently, closing the total cost-of-ownership gap with battery electric vehicle subsidies would not represent value-for-money.
The Academy leaves it to the omniscient government to fix the “adjustment challenges” to jobs and industries arising from its pro-EV policies.
Otherwise, “Australia will be left with an inefficient car fleet, dependent on mostly imported oil, for many years to come.”
What’s “inefficient” about my little family car Hyundai i30 (price new, $23,000)? It carries us like a charm on a whiff of petrol.
The Academy calls for “an immediate halt to new thermal coal mines and coal-fired power stations” and expects the bureaucracy to somehow find coal workers better jobs or earlier retirement. ...
... The Academy’s climate doomism is squandering prestige built over half a century.
Someone there should have run a check on its +3degree C. warming nonsense before the Academy does any more damage – to itself."
The UK is copping its frostiest April in at least 60 years, CO2 notwithstanding, according to its Met Office.
Notes:
IPCC’s Third Report 2001:
“In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
(Chapter 14, Section 14.2.2.2. )
IPCC’s Fifth Report, 2014:
111 out of 114 model runs showed temperatures above actual data.
[chapter 9, text box 9.2, page 769]
The last official IPCC statement was a footnote in IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. SPM page 16.
It reads ‘No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.’
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Friday, April 30, 2021
"The Australian Academy of Drama Queens"
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