"Since the publication of the Charney Report in 1979, the estimate of influence on global temperatures from doubling carbon dioxide remains at 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C.
It has stagnated for forty years, since the beginning of space age instrumentation that can systematically measure what is occurring in the atmosphere.
We can measure changes in temperature of atmosphere and changes in the greenhouse effect.
Yet, the IPCC and its followers including NASA-GISS largely ignore what is being measured in the atmosphere.
Unfortunately, this is a characteristic of institutionalized science, it cannot accept change.
Both relativity and quantum physics were strongly opposed by classical physicists.
Even Einstein initially opposed quantum physics.
But the data continue to compile, the earth is not warming as projected by the IPCC.
Western science journals have ignored other ways of estimating the influence of adding CO2 to the atmosphere.
The IPCC knows best has been the chant.
On August 23 a relatively new journal, the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, broke form and published a study displaying atmospheric data using the HITRAN database to estimate the extent to which doubling CO2 will increase global temperatures.
The study extends to water vapor, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O).
http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12
The results are similar to laboratory results from decades of experimentation in spectroscopy, the study of how electromagnetic radiation interacts with matter (mostly atoms and molecules).
Although he did not understand it in the modern context, in 1859 John Tyndall used spectroscopy to study how certain gases (which he called greenhouse gases)
slow the cooling of the land masses at night, preventing them from entering into a deep freeze, thus killing life as we generally know it.
By far, the principal gas is water vapor.
The new study provides separate support that the principal greenhouse gas is water vapor.
The abstract states:
“From this data it is concluded that H2O is responsible for 29.4K of the 33K warming, with CO2 contributing 3.3K and CH4 and N2O combined just 0.3K.
Climate sensitivity to future increases in CO2 concentration is calculated to be 0.50K, including the positive feedback effects of H2O, while climate sensitivities to CH4 and N2O are almost undetectable at 0.06K and 0.08K
respectively.
This result strongly suggests that increasing levels of CO2 will not lead to significant changes in earth temperature and that increases in CH4 and N2O will have very little discernable impact.”
Of major interest to TWTW is the climate sensitivity of CO2 going from 200 parts per million volume (ppm) to 400 ppm, and from 400 ppm to 800 ppm.
With the calculated feedback, the sensitivity is 0.46°C (0.8°F) for going from 200 to 400 ppm and 0.50°C (0.9°F) for going from 400 to 800 ppm.
These are very similar to calculations by Wijngaarden and Happer, which are used by Howard Hayden as expressed in last week’s TWTW.
From the above, the real question is does it make sense to destroy the modern economy to prevent a warming humans cannot feel?
Why do the IPCC and its followers insist that a warming from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution is from CO2 emissions when it is ever clearer it is largely natural variation?
The journal has editors in China and India.
Why should the leaders of these countries respect western governments which implore they stop using fossil fuels which have lifted so many from dire poverty?
No doubt they will insist that the West show them how it is done.
As stated in the conclusion:
“Feedback effects play a minor role in the warming of the earth.
There is [not], and never can be, a tipping point.
As the concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, the temperature sensitivity to those increases becomes smaller and smaller.
The earth’s atmosphere is a near perfect example of a stable system.
It is also possible to attribute the impact of the increase in CO2 concentrations from the pre-industrial levels of 280ppm to the current 420ppm to an increase in earth mean temperature of just 0.24 Kelvin, a figure entirely consistent with the calculated climate sensitivity of 0.50 Kelvin.”
The new study is not without issues.
It is less comprehensive than prior studies by Wijngaarden and Happer.
It does not contain details that describe the greenhouse effect and how it changes, including how greenhouse gases cool the atmosphere.
For example, the greenhouse effect changes with altitude and latitude.
Water freezes out at the tropopause, which changes with latitude and the seasons.
In the polar winters there is little or no water vapor, thus the greenhouse effects there of the less important greenhouse gases."
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Monday, September 6, 2021
" the estimate of influence on global temperatures from doubling carbon dioxide remains at 3°C plus or minus 1.5°C. It has stagnated for forty years"
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