Source:
"Bjorn Lomborg:
"Hurricanes in 2021 were unprecedented — as in unprecedentedly few.
Globally, 2021 had the fewest hurricanes ever in the satellite era (1980-2021).
With 16 strong (Cat 3+) hurricanes, 2021 was the second-lowest strong hurricane year since 1980.
Globally, 2021 was a weak hurricane year.
When measured by total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), 2021 was the 9th weakest year.
Did you see that reported anywhere?
Hurricanes in 2021 were weak and exceptionally few.
But we heard lots about North Atlantic hurricanes.
Conveniently, North Atlantic is the only basin where hurricanes are stronger.
Does this leave us well-informed?.
But we hear lots about names storms (hurricanes + weaker storms).
Ever-easier to detect, so numbers keep climbing (4 of 2020s 30 named storms wouldn't have been named in 2000!).
Not as relevant, but hey, scary numbers."
Globally, 2021 was a weak hurricane year.
When measured by total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), 2021 was the 9th weakest year.
Hurricanes in 2021 were weak and exceptionally few.
But we heard lots about North Atlantic hurricanes.
Conveniently, North Atlantic is the only basin where hurricanes are stronger.
Does this leave us well-informed?.
But we hear lots about names storms (hurricanes + weaker storms).
Ever-easier to detect, so numbers keep climbing (4 of 2020s 30 named storms wouldn't have been named in 2000!).
Not as relevant, but hey, scary numbers."
Weather & Climate Disasters Are Declining Globally:
Extreme weather expert Roger Pielke, Jr.:
“The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,” notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack.
“The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved.
So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.”
Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.
Consider also that according to data from the U.S. National Weather Service from 2000 to 2020 only four of the strongest category of tornadoes were observed (which are labelled as F/EF5 tornadoes)
In comparison, from 1954 to 1974 36 (!) such powerful tornadoes were observed.
Our research on tornado damage in the United States over many decades shows a decline that is suggestive of an actual decline in tornado incidence.
Based on the IPCC assessment of the literature, along with the underlying data and research,
the only scientifically valid answer to the question of whether greenhouse gas emissions and associated climate change are leading to more or more intense tornado outbreaks — a “new normal”
— is that neither tornadoes nor the most intense tornadoes have increased since at least the 1950s.
Tropical cyclone activity below-normal in 2021 across Northern Hemisphere & US tornadic activity also below-normal
– Meteorologist Paul Dorian:
“Tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere has been below-normal in 2021 in much the same way as it was last year.
Specifically, while the Atlantic Basin featured above-normal tropical activity in this year and last, the Pacific Ocean experienced below-normal conditions in both years leading the way to below-normal levels across the hemisphere as a whole.
In terms of tornadoes, it has been another below-normal season in the US with no EF-5’s recorded.”
Extreme weather expert Roger Pielke, Jr.:
“The data show that from 2000 to 2021, the number of global weather and climate disasters declined by about 10%, which is very good news and completely contrary to conventional wisdom,” notes Pielke over at his new Honest Broker Substack.
“The period since 2000 is viewed as the most reliable for data reliability, but it is safe to say that even since 2000, coverage has improved.
So the 10% decline is possibly an underestimate.”
Note that even the WMO report shows a decline between the 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 periods.
Consider also that according to data from the U.S. National Weather Service from 2000 to 2020 only four of the strongest category of tornadoes were observed (which are labelled as F/EF5 tornadoes)
In comparison, from 1954 to 1974 36 (!) such powerful tornadoes were observed.
Our research on tornado damage in the United States over many decades shows a decline that is suggestive of an actual decline in tornado incidence.
Based on the IPCC assessment of the literature, along with the underlying data and research,
the only scientifically valid answer to the question of whether greenhouse gas emissions and associated climate change are leading to more or more intense tornado outbreaks — a “new normal”
— is that neither tornadoes nor the most intense tornadoes have increased since at least the 1950s.
Tropical cyclone activity below-normal in 2021 across Northern Hemisphere & US tornadic activity also below-normal
– Meteorologist Paul Dorian:
“Tropical cyclone activity across the Northern Hemisphere has been below-normal in 2021 in much the same way as it was last year.
Specifically, while the Atlantic Basin featured above-normal tropical activity in this year and last, the Pacific Ocean experienced below-normal conditions in both years leading the way to below-normal levels across the hemisphere as a whole.
In terms of tornadoes, it has been another below-normal season in the US with no EF-5’s recorded.”