"In 2020 W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer submitted a paper on the “Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases” to the journal Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics.
The paper has been ignored.
Those physicists are experts on Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physics (AMO) and spectroscopy, the study of the interaction of electromagnetic radiation and matter (including atoms and molecules).
Spectroscopy is applicable to many fields of physics, chemistry, and biology.
Chemist John Tyndall started using it in 1859 to study radiative heat transfer from the Earth to find why the Earth was warm enough to support life.
Tyndall coined the term "greenhouse gases", the dominant one being water vapor.
Tyndall realized that the greenhouse effect is critical for human existence, without it the land masses would be far too cold every night for plant life to grow. (Also, without carbon dioxide no plant life would exist.)
The van Wijngaarden and Happer paper relies on a comprehensive set of observations and calculations known as HITRAN, an acronym for high-resolution transmission molecular absorption,
compiled under Air Force contract by the Atomic and Molecular Physics Division, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
It is a compilation of spectroscopic parameters (defining characteristics) that can be used to predict and simulate the transmission and emission of light (electromagnetic energy) in the atmosphere.
Using these data, which apply to cloudless skies, van Wijngaarden and Happer calculate the influence that increasing water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, nitrous oxide, and methane have on temperatures.
The observations and calculations confirm major conclusions by Tyndall and decades of laboratory experiments.
Water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas, but it is not increasing significantly with a warming planet.
Further, the influence of additional carbon dioxide diminishes greatly with concentrations above one hundred parts per million in volume (ppm), which is far less than that which naturally occurs.
Overall, carbon dioxide provides roughly twenty to twenty-five percent of the total greenhouse effect but doubling the concentration would only increase the total greenhouse effect by a little over 2 percent.
And given the existing influence of water vapor, the influences of the other gases on global temperatures are insignificant.
The November 13 TWTW discussed that at the Heartland Conference, physicist Tom Sheahen reported why the paper was an outstanding example of using the scientific method to get the physics right.
The authors calculated the cumulative radiation leaving the earth,
calculated what is delayed in the atmosphere,
the greenhouse effect,
and found that that the remainder matched satellite measurements of radiation leaving the atmosphere (going into space).
Further, no one has done such thorough calculations before and showed they matched observations.
Sheahen emphasized that the agreement of calculations with observations is the key factor which certifies that their computational model is correct.
That's the proper use of the scientific method. Van Wijngaarden & Happer calculated the intensity of electromagnetic radiation (infrared radiation)
leaving the atmosphere above the Sahara desert (low humidity);
the Mediterranean (normal humidity) representative of the temperate regions of the earth;
and wintertime Antarctica.
Antarctica is remarkable since the relatively warm greenhouse gases in the troposphere, [mostly CO2, O3 and H2O] radiate more to space than the thermal radiation from the cold ice surface would through a transparent atmosphere.
One can add that this is an example of the importance of convection transporting heat from the tropics to the polar regions where it is lost to space.
[The surface temperature used in the calculations is 190 K (minus 83 C, minus 118 F)].
Sheahen underlined that agreement between theory and experiment (and observations) is THE HALLMARK of good science.
The method used by van Wijngaarden and Happer meets that criterion.
Therefore, it can be trusted to make predictions about hypothetical states where the concentrations of the various gases are changed.
The model of van Wijngaarden and Happer, validated by physical evidence, was used to forecast the effects of increasing greenhouse gases on escaping radiation, which in turn affects temperatures.
At current concentrations, increasing water vapor and carbon dioxide have a tiny effect on temperatures; the term is "saturated."
The effects of increasing the other greenhouse gases are virtually imperceptible.
Consequently, their method is far superior to that used in the global climate models featured in IPCC reports and its followers.
Those models begin with different (and highly questionable) initial assumptions, and greatly exaggerate atmospheric temperature increases compared with actual observations.
In their paper, “Methane and Climate” discussed in the November 6 TWTW, van Wijngaarden and Happer conclude:
The net forcing increase from CH4, and CO2 is about 0.05 watts per meter squared per year.
“Other things being equal, this will cause a temperature increase of about 0.012 C [per] year.
Proposals to place harsh restrictions on methane emissions because of warming fears are not justified by facts.”
It is important to remember that these calculations are based on “clear skies,” no clouds.
If and when a solid theory on cloud formations is developed, then the calculated influence of greenhouse gases on temperatures should be lower.
Clouds reflect significant sunlight, preventing it from reaching the surface, cooling the surface."
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Monday, January 24, 2022
Mild Harmless Greenhouse Gas Warming: Happer & Wijngaarden
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