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Monday, January 17, 2022

Monday morning climate rap; Talking about computer games and "Nut Zero"

Here in Michigan USA where I live, we loved the global warming since the 1970s, and want a lot more. We'd love to retire our snow shovels some day.

NUT ZERO is based on always wrong wild guesses of a coming global warming crisis that began with US oceanographer Roger Revelle in 1957.

Computer models came much later.

They were programmed to support those scary climate predictions that had existed for about 20 years.

Computers predict whatever they are programmed to predict.

They were programmed to predict exactly what governments paid bureaucrat scientists to predict.

It's obvious accurate temperature predictions were not a goal, because the predictions average about 100% faster global warming than actually happened since 1975. 

There has been no increase of accuracy for the past 40 years. 

The one climate model that least over predicts warming, the Russian INM model, gets no special attention. 

It's averaged with several dozen other models, all of which over predict warming by even more than the Russian model.

Back testing the models, they failed to predict the actual global cooling from 1940 to 1975, and grossly under predicted the actual global warming from 1910 to 1940 with very little CO2 increase.

Concerning NUT ZERO:
There is only a vision statement and many rapidly growing nations have not bought into it: China, India, most Asian nations, African nations and just about every undeveloped nation in the world, although many have their hands out for some green climate slush fund money.

There is no Nut Zero feasibility study

There is no Nut Zero plan

There is no Nut Zero cost estimate.

There is no small scale 100% unreliables prototype
anywhere on this planet.

Early indications from the UK, Germany, Australia, California and Texas are that a high percentage of renewables makes the electric grid less reliable, 

and the cost of electricity moves much higher, especially when including the subsidies and tax credits, which are HUGE per unit of power generated for wind and solar power.

I have several decades of experience developing complex three year project plans for developing manufactured products. 

So I know what a real process plan looks like.
That background leads to my conclusion:

The reason NUT ZERO is not going according to plan, is that there is no plan.

A vision statement, with many important nations not buying in, is NOT a plan.