Saturday morning climate rap: The greatest scientific fraud of all times

What is "climate change"?

Very few people know.

 To Climate Realists, climate change means Earth's climate is always changing. That's reality. But not to Climate Alarmists. To them "climate change" means predictions of future climate doom. That's their fantasy.

Scary predictions of the future average temperature (aka "climate change") are completely unrelated to past average temperature measurements and reconstructions.

 

The greatest science fraud is not an inaccurate average temperature history -- in fact, that history is almost irrelevant to the Climate Alarmist predictions of future climate doom.  

 

The predictions of climate doom, for the FUTURE climate, are NOT based on the PAST climate. They are also NOT based on data -- there are no data for the future. The scary predictions are based on unproven theories and wild guess speculation. The predictions claim future average temperatures will be rising two to three times faster than in the 1975 to 2020 period, even with similar CO2 increases every year.  As people with common sense should know -- predictions are rarely correct. In fact, every prediction of environmental doom since the 1960s has been wrong. 100% wrong.  

 

The prediction of climate doom began in the late 1950s with a small group of scientists led by oceanographer Roger Revelle. They stated their CO2 beliefs with uncertainty, like real scientists did at the time, and did not seek to get scary headlines in the mass media. Which would have been difficult in the 1950s, because even though CO2 levels had been rising since 1940, there was global cooling from 1940 to 1975. That cooling trend was much later "adjusted" away by smarmy government bureaucrats, because it contradicted their preferred 'the CO2 level controls the global average temperature narrative. Reality from 1940 to 1975 was inconvenient, and could not be explained ... so it was changed.

 

The Greatest Scientific Fraud Of All Time starts with the lack of data for historical average temperature compilations before World War II. See the charts at the link below for locations of the few land weather stations that existed before 1920:  https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2022/02/locations-of-land-weather-stations-many.html

Climate reconstructions are not real time temperature data. They are estimates based on climate proxies. They are not accurate. They may have  margins of error of  +/-  2 degrees C. or more.

We know from anecdotes that some centuries in the past 100 years were unusually cool, and others were unusually warm.

We know from geologists that Canada was covered by a thick ice glacier about 20,000 years ago, which had melted by 10,000 years ago, with no help from CO2 emissions.

We know from physicists that our planet is not in thermodynamic equilibrium -- the climate is always changing.

The predictions of future climate doom ignore the falling temperatures, as CO2 levels rose, from 1940 to 1975 -- originally reported as almost -0.5 degrees C. global cooling by NCAR in 1975 ... later "adjusted" to no global cooling at all by NASA-GISS, gradually over many decades, so few people would notice.

The measured warming from 1910 to 1940, although based on not very accurate measurements, happened with almost no CO2 increase = natural global warming. But all natural causes of warming and cooling in the past are ignored by the IPCC, which described natural causes of climate change as "noise" in 1995.  

The greatest fraud is 65 consecutive years of predictions of a coming global warming crisis, first specified in the 1979 Charney Report, of warming at a rate much faster than has been experienced since then.  By "since then", I mean the period since 1979 with reasonably accurate global average temperature compilations made using data collected by NASA weather satellites in the troposphere -- a stable environment where the greenhouse effect occurs.

The weather satellites capture about 95% of Earth's surface temperatures, and require guessing for the 5% of the surface area over both poles.  Alternative land surface temperature compilations require at least 4x more guessing for missing data (called "infilling", but guessing is more accurate). And that is the percentage of guessing done today -- there was far more guessing one century ago, as you can clearly see at the link above.

Prior to World War II, there were too few weather stations on land. Prior to 1920, the few weather stations were mainly in the US, Europe and the West coast of Australia.  

Ocean surface temperatures were "measured" haphazardly with buckets and thermometers, almost entirely in Northern Hemisphere shipping lanes. There were very few ocean surface temperature measurement in the Southern Hemisphere, which is mainly oceans. 

The bottom line is no temperature data before 1979 are accurate enough for science ... other than the broad statement that Canada is warmer now than it was 20,000 years ago, when covered with a thick ice glacier.

There are many hundreds of climate reconstruction studies that DID NOT FIND a flat temperature trend for several thousand years before the 1900s, as falsely claimed by the IPCC.

There are three land weather stations in Central England that have measurements since the 1600s. They reflect about +3 degrees C. warming in Central England since the cold 1690s, during the coldest decade of the Maunder Minimum low solar energy period. There are no other measurements worth quoting before satellite data starting in 1979.

Climate reconstructions suggest the period from 5000 to 9000 years ago, called the Holocene Climate Optimum, was at least as warm as today, and most likely slightly warmer. That was a good climate for humans and animals. Today's climate is even better -- good for humans, animals and for plants too, with more CO2 in the atmosphere than thousands of years ago. The current climate may be the best climate for humans, animals and plants in the history of our planet.

Another 50 to 100 years of global warming similar to the 1975 to 2020 warming, would be even better.  Especially when you know the prior warming period mainly affected colder, high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, mainly during the six coldest months of the year, and mainly at night (TMIN). Think of warmer winter nights in Siberia. And let's hope for more of that !