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Tuesday, March 8, 2022

Electric Grid Reliability is Everything, by Donn Dears

NOTE:
I visit about three dozen climate and energy websites every day to find at least four good articles and some charts for this blog. I've never recommended any other website because they lack consistency. The most consistent website of all is by a retired engineer, who writes a few concise articles every week: Donn Dears.

              https://ddears.com/donns-articles/

Almost every Dears is so good, I add it here -- maybe once a year there's an article I  have issues with. You should bookmark the Dears website. No other energy website is that consistent.

My "job" here as editor to to determine which writers know what they are talking about. Donn knows what he is talking about. And he communicates with concise, easy to read articles. I wish the articles by science Ph.D.s that I find were concise and easy to read. Experts on any subject should be able to present their knowledge with simple and easy to understand English. Otherwise I have to summarize their papers, and that's work. After being retired for 17 years, I'm completely allergic to work!

Source:
 

SUMMARY:
"A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article cites several situations where the grid is stressed, and includes this admonition by a professor at Wayne State University:

“Everything is tied to having electricity, and yet we’re not focusing on the reliability of the grid. That’s absurd, and that’s frightening.”

He, and all Americans, should be terrified by the addition of wind and solar to the grid and how baseload, dispatchable power plants, i.e.,  natural gas, coal-fired and nuclear, are being removed from the grid.

DETAILS:
A recent WSJ article, The Power Struggle, raised the importance of grid reliability, but claimed that electric grid failures were caused by climate change.

The claim that climate risk is undermining grid reliability is an illusion.

The WSJ article correctly diagnosed the danger of  blackouts, but incorrectly determined that the cause was climate change.

It is their proposed cure, i.e.,more wind, solar and batteries for storage, that is causing the problem.

As usual, some of their assumptions are wrong.

For example, the WSJ article said:
    “Wind and solar technologies have become increasingly cost-competitive and now rival coal, nuclear and, in some places, gas-fired plants.”

And:
   “Unlike electric systems in Europe, distribution and transmission lines in the U.S. were typically built overhead instead of buried underground, which makes them more vulnerable to weather.”

And:
   ”Wind and solar farms, whose output depends on weather and time of day, have become some of the most substantial sources of power in the U.S., second only to natural gas.”

Here are some facts:

    Wind and solar are not less costly than existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), coal-fired or nuclear power plants.

They are also not less costly than new NGCC power plants.

And they are, without question, far more costly when the cost of batteries, needed to backup up wind and solar, are included in the cost of generating and distributing electricity.

    Transmission lines in Europe are above ground except for a few DC transmission lines, mostly used to span waterways, just as in the US.

The US has many more suburbs which resulted in distribution lines being built above ground, but distribution lines in new developments, since the 1960s, have largely been built underground.

I place the time as the 1960s because I was a manager at the plant making distribution transformers when we began making pad-mounted transformers used for underground distribution.

Subsequently, in the 1990s, while living in Reston, I happened across one of the compact pad-mounted transformers we had shipped to the Reston developer, Bob Simon, in 1963.

    Wind and solar are not a substantial “source of power” generated by all power plants serving the grid.

Together, wind and solar only provided 10.6% of the electricity in 2020.

Rather than solving problems, wind and solar are creating problems and increasing costs.

Reliability

Wind and solar are increasing the likelihood of blackouts.

This is explained in the book, The Looming Energy Crisis, Are Blackouts Inevitable?

These two recent article provide some details about why using wind and solar  are hurting reliability.

Texas Remains in Peril
https://bit.ly/3AD06Vd

TX and CA Canaries in the Coal Mine
https://bit.ly/3dd2NSZ


Cost

Wind and solar are increasing costs for two reasons:

    Their actual costs are larger than reported in the media.

    Wind and solar must have backup, usually using batteries, and the cost of storage is not included in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).

The cost of storage is usually paid for by the utility.

These two recent articles provide some details concerning costs.

    Objective analysis of Wind Energy
https://bit.ly/3yI6MiS

    Lazard Wind and Solar Costs, Part 1 

... wind and solar require 25 times more critical materials than NGCC power plants, resulting in the US being dependent on other countries."