The
next post here is the best article I read in the past 24 hours. Dr. Happer is a brilliant scientist. I happen to agree with most of what he says. His claim is that CO2 is
a minor, harmless greenhouse gas, and more CO2 in the atmosphere improves plant growth on our planet. That
has been my position since launching this blog. But I don't publish
articles here only because I agree with them, or wrote them -- I publish
articles that make sense.
My main difference with Happer is that he believes
a doubling of CO2 would cause +1 degree C. of global warming, rather
than the +3 degrees C. (+/- 50%) claimed by the IPCC, based on a guess
from the 1970s (made famous in the 1979 The Charney Report) ... which was not much different
than +4 degrees C. claimed by a scientist in the late 1800s.
I disagree
with all of them.
The correct answer on the warming effect of doubling the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, is "we don't know". A worst case estimate can be done by cherry
picking the 1975 to 2020 period, with the fastest rate of global warming in the
era of man made CO2 (since 1880) -- and blaming all that warming on CO2. That worst case estimate suggests a doubling of CO2 would cause
no more than +1.5 degrees C. of global warming, which could take a
century.
So +1 degree C. is a reasonable estimate. But the right answer
is still "we don't know -- a common answer for climate science
questions. With only a BS degree, I have one advantage over those smarty
pants Ph.D. scientists -- I am perfectly comfortable when saying "no one
knows", while they are not. I suppose there is some unwritten rule that
if you have a Ph.D. (or are a politician) any question answered with "no
one knows", or "I don't know", marks you as a science big dummy. Like another Kamala
Harris, or AOC, or Greta Thunberg. Or even worse, like Al Gore or John Kerry, who should know better.
As
I grow older, I realize there are an alarming number of subjects I know
nothing about. A real decline from when I was a teenager, and knew
everything! That's why almost every article here is by authors other
than me. My skill is to judge which authors make sense. That's the main benefit
of my BS degree -- I'm an expert on BS -- detecting it, not spouting it.
And I'm going to keep writing that joke until someone laughs.
If
you want to learn one thing about climate science from this blog, just
remember my first and only climate prediction, coming about one hour
after I began studying climate science in 1997. At the time, my primary hobby was
editing a for profit financial newsletter: ECONOMIC LOGIC, starting when I was
earning my Finance MBA in 1977. I made a bet with a classmate who was touting some stock market newsletter. I told him anyone could write and sell a financial newsletter. And I did. In 1997, after 20 years of editing ECONOMIC LOGIC, I decided I'd better learn
about climate science, because the attack on fossil fuels was going to
slow future economic growth. Cheap fossil fuels are the foundation of
economic growth.
After my first hour of climate science reading, I was
stunned -- predictions of climate doom were based on unproven theories
and speculation. And 100 year climate models that couldn't predict the
climate in the next year. I had just stumbled on a tall, steaming pile of
farm animal digestive waste products! That's when I created the most
accurate climate prediction in human history. As satire, of course, but
it summed up the fact that humans had no ability to predict the future
climate:
"The climate will get warmer, unless it gets colder."
Believe it or not, 25 years later, I still can't create a more accurate prediction. And that is the first lesson of climate science. Just ignore the wild guess predictions of doom.
You've been living with global warming since 1975. unless you are a young whippersnapper. It has been harmless. We
love the warmer winters here in Bingham Farms, Michigan, and la lot ess snow. How can people live
with global warming for decades, and enjoy it, but still fear future global warming? My answer is" I don't know" .
I stopped publishing ECONOMIC LOGIC in early 2020, after 43 years, although the supplementary EL blog is still alive, and well, at www.EL2017.Blogspot.com
My climate science and energy blog was ten times more popular than my economics blog. All those predictions of climate doom create excitement. They're all baloney, of course, but they are exciting baloney. They excited me enough to start learning about climate science in 1997.
I had grown up with great skepticism about all predictions, so I never fell for predictions of climate doom. In economics, the only excitement is perhaps one recession every decade. And US economists, as a group, have NEVER predicted a recession. Their predictions are no more accurate than climate scientist predictions!
Ye Editor