***************
Limits in Statistics:
As Richard Feynman stated: “If there is something very slightly wrong in our definition of the theories, then the full mathematical rigor may convert these errors into ridiculous conclusions.” (TWTW, Mar 26). Such errors often result from over reliance on statistics. A real problem arises when politicized scientist, bureaucrats, and politicians claim the ridiculous conclusions are science facts, the same as physical evidence.
On his web site Roy Spencer discusses such a problem when “Explaining Mauna Loa CO2 Increases with Anthropogenic and Natural Influences.” He writes:
“SUMMARY
“The proper way of looking for causal relationships between time series data (e.g., between atmospheric CO2 and temperature) is discussed. While statistical analysis alone is unlikely to provide ‘proof’ of causation, use of the ‘master equation’ is shown to avoid common pitfalls.
One statistically based model using anthropogenic and natural forcings suggests ~15% of the rise in CO2 being due to natural factors, with an excellent match between model and observations for the COVID-19 related downturn in global economic activity in 2020.”
Spencer then goes through several attempts to correlate the changes in CO2 with changes in other trends:
“Global anthropogenic emissions, tropical sea surface temperature (ERSST), global average surface temperature (HadCRUT4), the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Mauna Loa atmospheric transmission (mostly major volcanoes), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).”
He writes further:
“The first thing we notice is that the highest correlation is achieved with the surface temperature datasets, (tropical SST or global land+ocean HadCRUT4). This suggests at least some role for increasing surface temperatures causing increasing CO2, especially since if I turn the causation around (correlate dSST/dt [change in sea surface temperature over time] with CO2), I get a very low correlation, 0.05.
You might wonder, if the IPCC is correct and all of the CO2 increase has been due to anthropogenic emissions, why doesn’t it have the highest correlation? The answer could be as simple as noise in the data, especially considering the emissions estimates from China (the largest emitter) are quite uncertain.”
Here is a major problem is using land-based surface temperature data used by many global climate modelers – it is extremely noisy because the effects of urbanization have not been removed. Many developing countries are experiencing intense urbanization as populations move from rural areas seeking a better way of life. Further, in developed countries much of the data is from airports, which have experience intense urbanization. Failure to remove the effects of urbanization results in ridiculous conclusions from global climate models.
Spencer concludes:
***************
The former Professor of Physical Geography at the University Centre in Svalbard, Norway, and Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Oslo, Norway, discusses air temperatures; oceans; sea level; sea ice; snow cover; and storms and hurricanes.
Regarding air temperatures, he writes:
“Many figures in this report focus on the period since 1979 – the satellite era – when access to a wide range of observations with nearly global coverage, including temperature, became commonplace. These data provide a detailed view into temperature changes over time at different altitudes in the atmosphere.
Among other phenomena, these observations reveal that a Stratospheric temperature plateau has prevailed since 1995. “Since 1979, lower Troposphere temperatures have increased over both land and oceans, but most clearly over the land. The most straightforward explanation for this is that much of the warming is caused by solar insolation, but there may be several secondary reasons, such as changes in cloud cover and land use.”
The Argo Program, which uses robotic floats to monitor ocean temperatures around the globe, and at different depths, has now achieved 18 years of global coverage, growing from a relatively sparse array of 1000 floats in 2004 to more than 3900 in December 2021. Since 2004, these floats have provided a unique ocean temperature dataset for depths down to 1900m. The data is currently updated to August 2020.
Although the oceans are much deeper than 1900m, and the published Argo data series still is relatively short, interesting features are now emerging from these observations. For example, since 2004, the upper 1900m of the oceans have experienced a globally averaged net warming of about 0.07°C. The maximum net warming (about 0.2°C) affects the uppermost 100m, mainly near the Equator, where the greatest amount of solar radiation is received. He recognizes that a careful examination of the details is needed as more data comes in.
He then discusses the problem of sea level:
“Global sea level is monitored by satellite altimetry and by direct measurement using tide gauges. While the satellite record suggests a global sea-level rise of about 3.3mm per year or more, data from tide gauges all over the world suggest a stable rise of 1–2mm per year.
The tide gauges indicate no recent acceleration (or deceleration) of sea-level rise. The marked difference (a ratio of about 1:2) between the two datasets has no universally accepted explanation, but it is known that the satellite observations face complications in areas near the coast (see, for example, Vignudelli et al. 2019). Whatever the truth, the tide-gauge data are more relevant for local coastal planning purposes”
In the Climate Symposium 2020, the late Tom Wysmuller of the Right Climate Stuff Team recognized the 1 to 2 ratio and stated it was from a programming error in calculating sea levels from satellite altimetry. Interestingly, NASA emphasizes the observations from space on sea levels and ignores observations from space on temperatures. Selective science?
*************** The Great Barrier Reef:
1/ Tropical ocean waters are generally nutrient poor and the symbiotic algal cells which give corals their colors are living near the lower nutrient limits for healthy plant growth. Their metabolism is sensitive to temperature and to achieve high efficiency it is fine-tuned to an optimum temperature range of only few degrees. Different strains of the algae are optimized to the differing seasonal temperatures and geographic regions.
2/ The strains of algae living in the tissues of corals change in accord with seasonal changes in water temperature. Such changes are usually gradual and the change in algae is not visually apparent.
3/ However, a more rapid change in temperature can result in the existing algal strain being expelled from the corals and [the coral] appearing bleached. Such rapid changes in temperature are not rare. Atmospheric cold fronts can result in sudden cooling. Likewise, calm periods lasting a week or more in warmer months can result in several degrees of warming near the surface when wave-driven mixing and water flows across shallow reefs fade away.
4/ If a temperature change is only brief, as in the wind returning after a calm period, the expelled algal strain may just be re-established. If the change is seasonal, a new strain of algae may replace the previous one. Such recovery can be relatively quick. A few weeks after a bleaching event, corals usually appear normal again.
5/ Bleaching mostly affects shallow reef areas where it is also conspicuous. In deeper channels and on the edges of extensive shallow reef flats where tidal flow of warm water off shallow areas occurs, some bleaching may extend a few meters deeper. Extensive reef areas at depths below about 10 meters are generally unaffected. The vulnerable shallow areas are also subject to occasional devastation from storms, floods or even just a good rain if it occurs when corals are exposed by a low tide.
Unfortunately, news reports and unscrupulous scientists claim changes are permanent when they are not, including those from heat events. Indeed, GBR is not the most diverse coral reef, “It is also worth noting that the average sea surface temperatures on the GBR are a couple of degrees cooler than they are in the Coral Triangle area of northern Indonesia and the southern Philippines, where coral reefs reach a peak of biodiversity [not] found anywhere [else] on Earth.”
On April 10 she went to John Brewer Reef, described as one of the worst bleached sections.
She found:
“There was some bleaching, especially around the perimeter of John Brewer Reef – on the sandy sea floor where the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) surveyed and concluded coral cover is never more than 30% – but most of John Brewer Reef is still covered in more than 80% colorful corals. This high percentage is denied by AIMS because they never survey the reef crest.”
It appears that relying on reports of the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) is similar to relying on reports claiming dying grasslands from those who tour only the edge of the desert.
15 Great Barrier Reecoral photographs from the Jennifer Marohasy website, enhanced for clarity by Ye Editor:
https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2022/04/epicentre-of-mass-coral-bleaching-still.html
***************
The Energy Crisis?
Donn Dears brings up that thanks to its industrial strength, during World War II, the United States was considered the Arsenal of Democracy. Now, thanks to its oil and gas resources, greatly expanded by hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling it can be considered the Energy Arsenal of Democracy. TWTW adds Canada because US refineries are dependent on heavy crude for efficient refining to all necessary products. According to the EIA:
“In 2021, the United States imported about 8.47 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum from 73 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs), refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels. Crude oil imports of about 6.11 million b/d accounted for about 72% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports in 2021, and non-crude oil petroleum accounted for about 28% of U.S. total gross petroleum imports.
“In 2021, the United States exported about 8.63 million b/d of petroleum to 176 countries and 4 U.S. territories. Crude oil exports of about 2.98 million b/d accounted for 35% of total U.S. gross petroleum exports in 2021. The resulting total net petroleum imports (imports minus exports) were about -0.16 million b/d in 2021, which means that the United States was a net petroleum exporter of 0.16 million b/d in 2021.
“The top five source countries of U.S. gross petroleum imports in 2021 were Canada (51%), Mexico (8%), Russia (8%), Saudi Arabia (5%), and Colombia (2%).”
Exports to Mexico exceeded imports from Mexico. With Canada and Mexico, North America can be energy independent of authoritarian governments.
The question is when will Washington and the Canadian Prime Minister stop using false claims of dangerous global warming based on shoddy studies by the UN to cripple the vibrant fossil fuel industries?
***************
Number of the Week: $94.8 Trillion:
According to accountant Paul Homewood,
“Eight emerging markets — India, China, Indonesia, Kenya, South Africa, UAE, Nigeria, and South Africa [South Africa repeated] — will together need $94.8 trillion in transition finance from developed markets if they are to meet climate goals.
“India will need investments worth $12.4 trillion, nearly half of U.S. GDP, from developed nations and investors to help its economy transition to net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, according to a report. Without capital inflows and grants from the developed world, emerging economies including India’s will see household consumption fall by 5% on average each year, according to a study by Standard Chartered Plc.”
At the time of the Paris Agreement, the UN claimed it would need $100 Billion per year. Now it is $100 Billion a year for a thousand years? The next time John Kerry berates politicians in Indonesia to leave coal in the ground, as he did when he was Secretary of State under Obama, will he bring his personal checkbook?"