THE IMPORTANT POINT is that people who are normally over optimistic about the electric grid, are suddenly worried this Spring about blackouts this Summer.
They
have nothing to to gain by making such predictions. People will be angry
with blackouts that affect them, whether they were predicted or not. And if the
blackout predictions are wrong, the "experts" will look like fools, and their next
blackout prediction, which might be correct, may get ignored. So I have to
conclude that risks of local blackouts this Summer are real.
Ye Editor can't stand predictions for longer ahead than the next quarter. I don't publish articles that make long term predictions, or delete them from articles I do publish. Simple reason: They are almost always wrong. I also try not to publish articles that duplicate others already published. This article is a prediction, although for this Summer, just ahead. And I've already published a few similar articles.
The greater use of weather dependent wind and solar power with insufficient fossil fuel or battery backup, makes the electric grid less reliable. The risk of rolling blackouts, or worse, increases.
Only very rarely can a blackout can be predicted years in advance. After rolling blackouts affected 3.2 million Texans in February 2011, an August 2011 FERC report said they'd happen again unless the entire Texas energy infrastructure, even beyond electric power plants, was "winterized". The response to the report was a decade of windmill construction, that just made the problem worse -- Texas wind speed is low in February, when the coldest weather hits the state.
Then
in February 2021, the weather was colder, and the cold weather lasted longer, than in February
2011. Although ERCOT had projected wind energy output at only 6% of nameplate
capacity, the Texas windmills were not equipped with optional blade deicers.
With up to half the ERCOT windmills stopped due to blade icing, actual wind
output was only 4% of nameplate capacity -- 2/3 of the forecast. But In the few hours before the
blackouts, wind power approached zero, as it often does for an hour or
two each week. Texas did not have enough functioning fossil fuel backup
to offset the loss of only 6% of wind power nameplate capacity. And they had minimal capacity interconnections with other US electric grids.
And then 5 million Texans faced unplanned blackouts.