Sea Level: Rise and Fall – Slowing Down to Speed Up, by Kip Hansen

 FULL ARTICLE HERE:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/03/sea-level-rise-and-fall-slowing-down-to-speed-up/ 

 

"Yes, I do know that acceleration technically, means just a change in velocity.  But, in every day English, we use acceleration to mean an increase in velocity – speeding up — and deceleration  as a decrease in velocity – slowing down.  I mention acceleration and deceleration because one of the major talking points of IPCC reported findings about sea level rise, the incessant media mantra, is that “Sea Level Rise is Accelerating”.

LONG ESSAY ALERT: With apologies, this essay is for those who are interested in sea level rise and the question:  Is sea level rise accelerating?   It takes a lot of words and illustrations to explain the true situation.  Those with limited time can just accept this simple answer and move on: 

“Probably not at all, just maybe a wee tiny little bit that will not make any difference over the next century or two.”

Is sea level rising?  Yes, of course it is.  It has been rising since about 1750-1775, coinciding with the end of the Little Ice Age.  This is widely accepted as shown below:

How do we know?  The important aspect of sea level is how it affects the land at the edges of the oceans.  The water level there is measure by tide gauges at the ports and harbors of the world.  

 

The levels recorded by tide gauges are of local Relative Sea Level (RSL) – the level at which the sea surface hits the land.  This measurement includes both the actual rise in the sea surface height (think: distance from the center of the Earth) plus any vertical movement (VLM) of the tide gauge itself, either up or down.  

 

In many locations the land mass itself is subsiding (sinking) due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) as the land mass readjusts itself for the melting of the glaciers of the last great  Ice Age and at most tide gauge locations, the structure to which the tide gauge itself is attached, such as a pier or dock or sea wall, is also itself subsiding due to compaction of the soil underneath and the fact that many such locations are built on man-made filled substrate.  

 

To see if sea level is rising, it is only necessary to look at high quality tide gauge records for whom the VLM is known to be relatively constant.

Bottom Lines:

1.  Globally sea level is rising.  It has been rising since the end of the Little Ice Age and will continue to do so unless there is a major change in the planetary climate leading to another similar cold period.

2.  There is no good, sufficient or convincing evidence that global sea level rise is accelerating – there is only hypothesis and speculation.  Computation is not evidence and unless the results can be practically viewed and measured in the physical world, such results must not be presented as such.

3.  It is not scientifically legitimate to splice tide gauge records to satellite records – ever – as they measure different physical things.  As the tide gauge record extends to the present and continues to improve in quality, it should stand alone.   Tide gauge records apply only to the locality of the tide gauge and its Relative Sea Level.

4.  The global tide gauge record is quantitatively problematic, but individual records can be shown as qualitative evidence for a lack of sea level rise acceleration.

5.  Sea level and sea level rise are part of the modern scientific controversy generally known as Global Warming or, more recently,  Climate Change.  Most facts presented in discussions on all sides of the issues involved are more than likely to be opinions and, as always, opinions vary.  Wildly. 

6.  Only actually measured, validated raw data can be trusted and even then, you have to really understand what has been measured, exactly, and how it has been measured.  One such example is the original data record of your local tide gauge – unadjusted, untampered-with, un-averaged. 

Author’s Comment

This field-wide effort to convince the world that sea level rise is accelerating is very destructive.  Localities on sea shores are being forced to try to plan and prepare for frightening sea levels that will not be seen for centuries, if ever.

The situation could be likened to civil engineers of 1900 being forced to plan their streets and highways to accommodate the speeds and sizes of today’s high-powered automobiles and tandem tractor trailers. The difference being that today’s cars and trucks actually materialized, while the scary IPCC-projected RCP8.5 sea levels never will.