Climate Rap: The CO2 ECS versus CO2 TCS confusion

Let me add some details to a climate rap from two days ago:  Honest global warming chart Blog: Climate Rap: Stop the ECS wild guessing, and just observe the harmless actual global warming (elonionbloggle.blogspot.com)

The well publicized IPCC-guessed prediction of the future climate (ECS) is for several centuries in the future, not in 50 to 100 years: There's another IPCC-guessed prediction called TCS that refers to the next 50 to 100 years:

In several centuries (ECS in AR6): +2.5 to +4.0 degree C.
In 50 to 100 years (TCS in AR6): +1.4 to +2.2 degree C.

I previously talked about ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) -- an estimated temperature change that takes several centuries, resulting from a doubling of the CO2 level, from roughly 400ppm to 800ppm, plus a very strong (imagined) water vapor positive feedback. 

That's the only estimate the IPCC publicizes. They never mention that several centuries are required for that result. ECS numbers scare people more than the IPCCs other CO2 estimate: TCS.

IPCC reports also include TCS (Transient Climate Sensitivity), which is the estimated temperature change from a doubling of CO2, in about 70 years. Not centuries.

IPCC 2021 AR6 WG1 says doubling CO₂ leads to forcing of 3.78 W/m² (p. 945) which leads to a TCS (70-year timescale) response of 1.8℃ (1.4-2.2)

The +1.4 to +2.2 degree TCS range gets no publicity.

People read the +2.5 to +4.0 degree C. ECS range

They are often mislead to believe ECS means in 50 to 100 years.

In fact, ECS means after several centuries.

It is TCS that refers to after 50 to 100 years.

TCS is a lower range that gets no publicity!

All of these ECS and TCS numbers are guesses, not facts.

I would imagine a guess about the global average temperature in 70 years is nearly worthless. And a guess about the global average temperature in several centuries is completely worthless -- yet that guess is the foundation of CAGW and Nut Zero.

This rarely known IPCC misinformation about ECS reveals that government bureaucrat scientists can't be trusted !

Repeated from my earlier comment:

"From 1979's The Charney Report, until a few years ago, the effect of a doubling of the CO2 level was claimed to be +3.0 degrees C. +/- 1.5 degrees C. -- a range of +1.5 to +4.5 degrees C. 

That is called the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS). Think of ECS as a guess about the long-term effect on the global average temperature if the CO2 level doubled"

"To scare people more, the current ECS range from the IPCC AR6 report (2021) is from +2.5 degrees C. to +4.0 degrees C."

"The current ECS range for the latest CMIP6 batch of climate computer games (2022) is even larger, from +1.8 degrees C. to +5.6 degrees C."