"Climate science" is the most bizarre "science" ever:
- The future climate is claimed to be certain, but
- The past climate is constantly changing, from frequent "adjustments" to the data !
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We know with high confidence that Earth's climate has been changing for 4.5 billion years.
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Ice sheets developed, and sea level fell, several times.
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When Ice sheets began melting about 15,000 years ago, and the sea level began a 400+ foot rise, emissions from coal power plants and SUVs certainly didn't start, or cause, that warming.
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Historical cooling and warming was natural, not manmade, and not related to CO2 levels in the air.
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Studies of Greenland and Antarctica ice cores show that oceans warmed from natural causes, and as they warmed they gradually released some of their dissolved CO2 into the air -- increasing CO2 levels in the air.
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These ice core studies found that temperature peaks were FOLLOWED by CO2 peaks 500 to 1,000 years later.
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The "global warming cult" wants us to believe natural changes to the climate stopped in the middle of the 20th century.
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Suddenly, with no explanation, they claim manmade carbon dioxide (CO2) became the sole "climate controller".
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They claim more manmade CO2 in the air MUST make the world warmer, because CO2 in the air slows heat loss (infrared light waves) from the Earth.
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They fail to mention this effect is mainly from the first 100 parts per million by volume (ppmv) of CO2 in the air.
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An additional +100 ppmv of CO2 has much less of a warming effect.
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The CO2 increase in the prior century, from 300 to 400 ppmv, had no correlation with average temperature, indicating it was a minor factor in the +1 to +2 degree F. temperature rise from 1880 to 2015.
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The next +100 ppmv increase of CO2, from 400 to 500 ppmv, will cause less warming than the minor effect of the prior +100 ppmv increase, from 300 to 400 ppmv.
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So any additional warming, from a CO2 rise from 400 to 500 ppmv, may be too small to measure, or there will be no warming if CO2 has absorbed all the infrared radiation it can absorb.
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There is no reason to fear more CO2 in the air, and one very good reason to want more CO2 in the air: More CO2 accelerates green plant growth.
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It always surprises me that the Global Warming - Anti-CO2 Cult first became popular in the 1970's, because rising CO2 in the air from about 1940 to 1975 was accompanied by global cooling, not the global warming they predicted !
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In 1975, a few scientists who wanted attention predicted a coming global cooling catastrophe, based on the falling average temperature from 1940 to 1975.
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The covers of TIME and NEWSWEEK featured predictions of a coming global cooling catastrophe !
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The average temperature of the world also failed to rise from 1998 to 2015, as manmade CO2 rose a lot -- all five compilations of the average temperature showed a flat temperature trend for 12 to 18 years. (three surface measurements, and two satellite measurements, all based on NASA data.)
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In early 2015, NASA (and NOAA in the Commerce Department) was very upset a 12-year global warming "pause" was making computer game predictions of a coming climate catastrophe look foolish.
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Even worse, Americans were ranking global warming as only #19 of their 20 most important issues.
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Even worse, Americans were ranking global warming as only #19 of their 20 most important issues.
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So in May 2015 NASA/NOAA arbitrarily "adjusted" their raw data to erase the global warming "pause".
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They never mention 99.999% of Earth's history has no average temperature data, so no one knows what a "normal" average temperature is.
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They never mention all their measurements were made during a warming trend, so a "new record" only means the warming trend has not yet reversed to a cooling trend.
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NASA/NOAA's May 2015 adjustments were MUCH larger than seven prior "adjustments" going back to October 2010.
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Six of the eight NASA "adjustments" since 2010 created global warming out of thin air, especially the May 2015 adjustments.
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Data source:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/09/noaancei-temperature-anomaly-adjustments-since-2010-pray-they-dont-alter-it-any-further/
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The chart below shows the cumulative effects of NASA/NOAA "adjustments" to the average global temperature data compiled from surface measurements -- not all the "adjustments", just recent "adjustments" from October 2010 through May 2015.
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There is no good explanation of why data are repeatedly "adjusted", and why the adjustments usually increase the global warming reported from 1880 to 2015.
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If data are repeatedly adjusted, you no longer have real data -- you have human estimates of what the raw data should have been !
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I assume there will be more "adjustments" in the future, and there will be more warming from the "adjustments".
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This is no longer science, it is non-science (nonsense).
Cumulative average temperature "adjustments" from October 2010 through May 2015:
Cumulative average temperature "adjustments" from October 2010 through May 2015:
Data source:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/09/noaancei-temperature-anomaly-adjustments-since-2010-pray-they-dont-alter-it-any-further/
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With a wave of a "magic wand", NASA/NOAA made the 12 year average temperature "pause" disappear from the surface measurements.
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NASA did not "adjust" data from their weather satellites because they, and all other "global warmers", completely ignore satellite data -- the NASA satellites are not even mentioned in their own climate press releases.
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These weather satellite data are the only true global temperature measurements available -- they show no warming in the past 12 to 18 years -- and say 1998 was the hottest year since they were launched in 1979.
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No need to mention conflicting data from the weather satellites -- NASA/NOAA are too busy trying to scare the general public about a coming global warming catastrophe, using far less accurate, and non-global, surface measurements.
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When 2014 failed to be the hottest year since 1880, NASA just adjusted the data, completely ignored their +/- 0.1 degree C. margin of error, and reported the 2014 average temperature in hundredths of a degree C. !
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NASA then claimed 2014 was +0.02 degrees C. hotter than 2010, which is a meaningless claim with a +/- 0.1 degree C. margin of error ... but by doing that, they could claim 2014 was the hottest year on record (since 1880), making their boss, Mr. Obama, happy.
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In my opinion, the true margin of error is at least +/- 0.5 degrees C., because much of the Earth's surface has no thermometers, so the average temperature in many areas is just a guess -- a guess made by bureaucrats who want to scare the public by showing them a rising average temperature trend.