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Thursday, August 2, 2018

Three minute summary of climate change

In the ever changing 
climate on Earth:

(1) 
The causes of global warming 
are just a list of educated
guesses, with too many people
ASSUMING carbon dioxide
controls the average temperature,
with no scientific proof of that, 
and

(2) 
The future climate 
has been impossible to predict.



The good news, 
is rarely mentioned:
  Our planet's climate 
has been improving 
for hundreds of years, 
following an 
unusually cold period 
in the late 1600s,
that coincided with
unusually low
solar activity.

Adding CO2 to the air 
by burning fossil fuels,
may have caused some
global warming, but
no one knows how much.

Scientists do know 
more CO2 in the air
has been beneficial
for the "C3" plants 
used for food
by humans 
and animals.

For "C3" plants, 
the optimum CO2 level 
is in 800 to 2,000 ppm
far above the current 
level of 400 ppm.

The optimum CO2 range
is based on thousands 
of real scientific studies***,
not the computer model
simulations so common 
in modern climate "science".

***References:
  20 page summary of CO2 - plant growth studies here:


The best climate 
for our planet
is the climate
that produces 
the maximum 
growth rate of 
plants used for food.

That's why people 
with common sense,
using real science, 
prefer more CO2
in the air, not less !

Although CO2 
is a greenhouse gas,
and should cause 
an unknown amount 
of global warming, 
the warming so far 
has been pleasant, 
and harmless.

The observed warming was:
Mainly from 1975 to 2003,
mainly in the northern half
of the Northern Hemisphere,
mainly at night, and 
mainly in the winter 
and spring.

There's no scientific evidence
CO2 caused any of the warming
after 1975 -- that's just 
an unproven assumption.

If we want to calculate 
a worst case guess 
for CO2 warming,
we can assume that
CO2 caused 100% 
of the warming 
since 1975, 
(100% is far more than 
the UN's IPCC claim
of "over 50%"),
and then use 
that assumption
to estimate the
global warming
that MIGHT 
be caused 
by a doubling 
of the CO2 level.

The worst case estimate,
is a doubling of CO2 levels
would increase 
the average temperature
by a mere +1 degree C.
( aka:  a CO2 "Transient
Climate Sensitivity" 
of +1.0 C. )


How long would it take for
the current CO2 level to double?
  Answer: 
133 to 200 years !
     (133 years at 3 ppm / year 
         CO2 growth, to
     (200 years, at 2 ppm / year 
        CO2 growth.


So, why do some politicians,
and government bureaucrats
with science degrees,
claim adding CO2 to the air
will cause a 'climate crisis'? 
  Answer:
Telling the truth
is not something 
that leftists do well !

But they sure know 
how to 'use a crisis' 
to expand the powers
of the government ! 

And it doesn't matter
if it is a real crisis,
such as a war,
or a fake crisis,
such as the claim of a
coming climate change
catastrophe --
-- it only matters that
people get scared, 
and then demand
that their government
'do something' !

The leftists
always want
a more powerful
government,
and they know
fighting a "crisis"
is the easiest way 
to grow the government !


Richard Greene,
      since 1953
audiophile,
   since 1965
libertarian, 
   since 1973
BS degree in 1975,
   State University of New York
MBA degree in 1977,
   New York University
Economics newsletter editor,
   since 1977
Married,
   since 1983
Living in Bingham Farms, MI,
   since 1987
Climate science reading,
   since 1997
Lazy, retired 'bum', 
  since 2005
Does not trust politicians.
Does not speak French !