Total Pageviews

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

An important connection between solar energy variations and the average temperature makes sense, but historical data are not convincing

It makes sense to me 
that solar energy variations
have more of an effect 
on Earth's climate 
than man made CO2.

But ... 
the connection between the sun, 
and the average global temperature
has been so inconsistent,
based on the limited data we have,
its possible we're not measuring 
the solar attributes that really matter,
because:

(1) 
There is no observed 11 year 
average temperature cycle
to match the 11 year 
average sunspot cycle.

(2)
The Maunder Minimum 
in the late 1600s 
did coincide with 
below average temperatures,
and some famines in Europe,
but three other solar minimums 
in the Little Ice Age period 
did not.

I know sunspot counts 
are not the same 
as modern 
satellite measurements 
of TSI (total solar energy),
and temperature measurements 
in England are not 
a global average temperature
... so we do have limited data
for the Little Ice Age period.

The limited data show
not one of the four Little Ice Age 
solar minimums 
( very low sunspot 
counts, used as a proxy 
for low solar energy )
had the ideal temperature trend 
one would expect if small solar
energy variations were important to
the average temperature of our planet.

The ideal "signature" 
would be that 
the solar minimum years
were colder than average, 
and also got colder 
as the minimum continued. 

The Wolf Minimum 
was not unusually cold,
but the temperature
did have the 
expected downtrend.

It was unusually cold 
a few decades BEFORE
the Sporer Minimum began, 
perhaps the coldest period during 
the Little Ice Age.

Then it was cold again when the 
Sporer Minimum began,
but got warmer 
during that minimum, 
which makes no sense.

The Maunder Minimum 
was generally cold,
but the got warmer
during the minimum, 
which makes no sense.

The short Dalton Minimum 
was not cold, 
and the temperature
was warmer at the end, 
not colder.

This all adds up to no obvious 
correlations between the four 
Little Ice Age Minimums and
England temperatures.

And also no obvious correlation 
of the "11 year" sunspot cycle
and the global average temperature.


Note: 
I used H. H. Lamb's 
England Winter Severity index
as my primary source of 
Little Ice Age temperatures: