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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

We're living in The Good Old Days of fossil-fueled energy

We're currently living 
in the Good Old Days 
of fossil-fueled energy.

We should be happy 
with what we have now.

But there are some 
pesky science deniers 
who want to replace 
inexpensive,
reliable energy with 
much more expensive, 
intermittent, solar 
and wind energy.

Nothing is broken,
so let's fix it ?

Their magical thinking 
is sometimes called
the “Green Revolution” !

They want to “save us” 
from some imaginary
"existential threat"
from climate change.

They've lived their 
entire lives in  
a period of mild, 
and harmless 
global warming.

A climate change 
that people have 
been ENJOYING 
since the late 1600s 
unusually cold 
climate of the 
"Little Ice Age"

Many people, 
and all leftists, 
are deluding 
themselves 
with “feel good” 
expectations 
about green energy.



Let's consider 
some reality:
The three main 
fossil fuels 
are coal, oil and 
natural gas.

Their energy content 
can be converted 
into a common unit
called :
“Millions of tons 
of oil equivalent”, 
or Mtoe.

A million tons of oil 
= 1 Mtoe

Some amount of coal 
has the same energy 
as 1 Mtoe of oil.

Some amount 
of natural gas
has the same energy 
as 1 Mtoe of oil.

All different kinds
of fossil fuels
burned during a year 
can be converted 
to a single Mtoe number.

The world consumed 
11,743 Mtoe in 2018,
in the form of coal, 
natural gas and
 petroleum. 

Causing about 
33.7 billion tonnes 
of CO2 emissions. 



Let's estimate 
12,000 Mtoe 
for 2019.

For all of those 
CO2 emissions 
to reach "net-zero", 
we'd have to replace 
roughly 12,000 Mtoe 
with renewable energy.

12,000 Mtoe 
is a huge amount 
of energy.

Especially if you want 
net zero CO2 emissions 
globally by 2050.



There are about 
11,050 days left 
until January 2050.

To achieve net-zero 
global CO2 emissions
by 2050 would require
deployment of  >1 Mtoe 
( ~12,000 Mtoe  /  11,050 days ) 
of additional 
carbon-free energy
consumption 
every day,
starting today, 
and continuing 
for the next 
30+ years !

We’d also have to 
decommission, 
and retire, an 
equivalent 1 Mtoe 
of functioning 
fossil fuel property, 
plant and equipment 
every day.



To achieve net-zero 
CO2 global emissions
by 2050, here are two
very simple alternatives:

(1)
Using only nuclear energy:
Deploy 3 new
nuclear plants 
EVERY  TWO  DAYS, 
starting today, 
and continuing 
until 2050. 

(2)
Using only wind energy:
Deploy ~1500 
new wind turbines 
( @ 2.5 MW each ) 
EVERY  DAY, 
( 1,500 turbines
spread over 
~300 square miles ), 
starting today, 
and continuing 
until 2050.



REALITY:
A full transition 
to alternative energy 
won’t happen.

And that's 
good news,
because our mild
global warming 
is good news, 
not a threat
at all.

Every one of us
has been living 
our entire lives
with rising 
CO2 emissions
especially those of 
us born after 1950.

Almost no one 
outside of Alaska 
would have noticed 
the gradual warming, 
if not for bellowing
leftists scaremongering
about "climate change".

The threat from global
warming is imaginary,
and has been imaginary
for over 60 years.

Repeated, wrong 
scary predictions,
of a "coming" 
climate crisis 
( that never comes ), 
even when stated
with great confidence, 
are not a real threat.

We've had 60+ years 
of coming climate crisis
predictions, yet for 
the United States'
contiguous 48 states,
January through August 
2019 was the COLDEST 
January through August 
since U.S. records 
were kept in 1895.
( based on the Average
Daily Maximum 
Temperatures in NOAA's 
1,218 U.S. Historical 
Climatology Network, 
or USHCN, land surface 
weather stations ):









Can people be convinced
they are living in a climate
crisis, when they don't 
even feel a change ?

Of course leftists 
still believe their
fellow leftists with 
science degrees,
without question,
even as they predicted 
a coming climate 
crisis every year, 
for many decades,
that never shows up !

For leftists, 
even better is 
if the people with 
science degrees 
work for the 
government,
or a university,
because leftists 
love governments,
and universities.

If a PhD scientist
predicts the climate
100 years in the 
future, then he 
or she must know ?

The Appeal to Authority 
logical fallacy works
especially well on leftists.





There are plenty
of real problems 
in the world.

A very expensive, 
global energy 
infrastructure 
rebuild, over the
next 30 (or 50) years
is not in the Top Ten.

And should not be 
in the Top One Hundred !

The current green energy 
movement is a leftist
pipe dream, requiring
strict government
control of all energy use,
... which would mark
the beginning 
of the end
of the prosperity 
made possible
by free markets
and inexpensive
reliable, consistent
sources of energy.