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Sunday, October 6, 2019

Why The Green New Deal Won't Work

Conclusions from 
prior articles on 
the green new deal:
-- The cost is huge

-- Most of the cost
is for socialist programs,
unrelated to energy,

-- A 100% "renewables"
electric grid is not feasible,

-- GLOBAL CO2 emissions
will continue to rise with
only a US green new deal, and

-- The US fossil fuel industry
has been a great success --
so why destroy it ?


The U.S. 
Green New Deal 
supports 
100% wind, 
hydroelectric, 
and solar power
for the U.S., but not 
burning wood, which
has CO2 emissions and
causes deforestation.

Existing nuclear 
power would 
have to remain, 
for practical reasons,
but that's NOT a goal,
even though France's
nuclear energy program
has been a long term
success. 



I've written many times
that solar and wind
"renewables" are
very expensive
compared with 
natural gas.

And they produce 
inconsistent energy, 
so require a huge 
amount of fossil
fuel back-up, or 
very expensive
battery back up.

Another problem
is seasonal trends,
where the season
with maximum 
electricity output
from solar energy,
for one example,
does not match 
the season with 
maximum electricity
consumption.

Getting enough 
solar and wind 
energy during 
winters is a 
problem.

Energy needs
are less seasonal
in the tropics.

But at higher latitudes,
there's a greater need
for light and heat during 
the winter months ...
but solar output 
peaks in the summer:









Hydroelectric power 
tends to peak 
in the spring,
but varies a lot 
from year to year:










In some parts 
of the world, maximum
wind energy output 
best matches winter 
consumption needs:









But wind tends to be 
variable, from year 
to year, and from
month to month. 



California’s electricity 
consumption peaks 
in August, due to 
air conditioning usage 
-- two months after 
their June peak 
in solar panel output:











Over 80% of today’s 
energy consumption 
is from fossil fuels:








Based on the transition
speed since 1985,
moving to an 
all-electric economy 
would take 100+ years !


Today, wind, 
hydroelectric, 
and solar 
account for about 
10% of global world 
energy production: 
-- Hydroelectric, about 7%
-- Wind, about 2%
-- Solar, about 1%:








For hydroelectric, 
wind and solar 
to produce 100%
of the world’s 
energy supply, 
wind and solar, 
now at only 3%, 
will need 
to ramp up 
to over 90%
 -- meaning a huge
30-fold increase 
in wind and solar 
energy output.

That won't happen
between 2018 
and 2030  -- 
not even close !




More electric private 
passenger autos 
are not currently helpful 
if the electricity needed
to charge their batteries 
comes from coal.
( 64% coal use for 
DTE Energy electricity 
in my Detroit metropolitan 
area -- about half of that 
percentage for the entire
world ).

And private 
passenger autos 
are a smaller share 
of total oil consumption 
than many people 
would expect. 

BP data indicates 
that only 26%
of worldwide 
oil consumption 
is used for gasoline. 



From a Norway study:
  With large subsidies, 
EVs are disproportionately 
sold to high-income families 
as a second vehicle, 
often used for 
commuting to work.

Prior to the EV ownership, 
many owners had been taking 
public transportation to work:













Source for above chart:
Holtsmark and Skonhoft 
"The Norwegian support and subsidy 
policy of electric cars. Should it be 
adopted by other countries ?"