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Saturday, November 2, 2019

What is the ECS ? (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) -- The right answer is so obvious that a six year-old child could explain it ... to 99.9% of climate scientists, who are clueless !

Does someone have
a six year-old child 
available to explain this ?

Ask any 
six year-old child
what the CO2 ECS is,
and he'll say:
"I don't know".

That's the 

Yet over 99.9% of 
"climate scientists"
do not give that 
correct answer.

And 99.9% wrong,
is a serious problem:
It supports junk
climate science,
and two false claims:
The false 
claimed ability 
to predict
the future climate, 
as computer
         ( confuser ? )
climate "models" 
keep predicting 
triple the global 
warming rate 
that we have actually 
since the 1970s, 

The false 
claimed ability 
to "know"
that the 
future climate
must be 
bad news,
even though the past
325 years of intermittent
global warming, since
the late 1600s, has been 
100% good news !

Climate sensitivity 
to CO2 is defined 
as the surface 
global warming
that occurs when 
the concentration 
of carbon dioxide 
in the atmosphere

The equilibrium climate 
sensitivity (ECS) 
is defined as the change 
in global mean surface 
temperature, caused by 
a doubling of the 
atmospheric carbon 
dioxide concentration, 
after the climate system 
has had several centuries 
to respond. 

It is not possible 
to measure ECS 

The climate sensitivity 
to carbon dioxide, 
or ECS, is unknown.

To know the "right" ECS,
you would first need scientific
proof that CO2 is causing 
warming in the troposphere.

The only real 
"scientific proof"
is indirect:
proving CO2 
acts as a mild
greenhouse gas,
in a closed system
lab experiment,
using artificially
dried air

Results of the
lab experiments,
merely assumed 
to also happen 
in the troposphere, 
an ECS 
of about 
+1 degree C., 
excluding any 

To know the 
"right" ECS number
for the atmosphere,
you'd need to know
if there are feedbacks,
reducing or increasing
the alleged warming 
effects of CO2 alone.

Only then 
would you know
what percentage of 
total global warming 
was caused by increasing 
CO2 levels in the air.

The ECS 
is currently,
and has 
always been, 
an assumption 
-- a wild guess 
that covers
a very wild range.

There's no way 
to know how much
global warming 
was caused 
by CO2, if any, 
and how much 
global warming 
had other causes, 
both natural, and 
other man made

most scientists
are reluctant to say 
"we don't know".

They prefer 
to wild guess
a very large
range for ECS.

And they 
seemed to find 
a very wide range 
guess they really liked
back In the 1970s.

That wild guessed 
1970's ECS range 
has barely changed
in 40 years.

if scientists 
revised their 
wild guess
more often,
fewer people 
would believe it.

of actual warming
strongly suggest
estimate of 
CO2 global
warming effect, 
must be
the low end 
( +1.5 degrees C. )
of the popular 
wild guessed 
range !
( +1.5 to +4.5 degrees C. )

The UN's IPCC 
Fourth Assessment 
Report (2007) stated:
"The equilibrium 
climate sensitivity
... is likely to be
in the range of 
+2C  to  +4.5
with a best estimate 
of about +3C,
and is very unlikely 
to be less than 

Values higher than 
+4.5C cannot be 

Fifth Assessment 
Report (2013):
+1.5C  to  +4.5
( high confidence ), 
extremely unlikely 
less than +1
( high confidence) , 
and very unlikely 
greater than +6
( medium confidence ),

Note that "confidence"
has no scientific meaning
for these IPCC wild guesses --
"confidence" is just their
subjective "feeling" , 
not a real measurement 
of anything !

The wild guessed
ECS range varies 
by a factor of three !

These IPCC guesses 
are very similar to the 
1979 National Academy 
of Sciences study, 
( aka The Charney Report )
which wild guessed
an ECS range 
of +1.5 to +4.5C.

The stated reason 
for not citing a
"best estimate" 
in the 2013 IPCC
Fifth Assessment,
as they did in 2007, 
was a large difference
between actual 
global temperature
       ( lower ECS )
and estimates from 
the climate models 
        ( higher ECS ).

In the so-called 
climate models,
the equilibrium 
climate sensitivity 
is not directly 
or tuned.

ECS is assumed. 

So in 2019, 40 years after 
the 1979 Charney Report, 
there is still a huge range 
for the wild guessed ECS.

40 years later, 
the right answer 
about ECS is still 
"No one knows".

But we can make 
a worst case 
ECS estimate:

We have measured
all global warming
since we started 
adding lots of CO2
into the air (1940 ) -- 
( although temperature data 
before the 1979 weather 
satellites were launched,
did not have full
global coverage ).

Assume all the warming 
since 1979 was caused 
by CO2, 
( IPCC only says "Over 50% ) 
and you get a worst case 
ECS estimate of about 
+1 degree C.

If ECS is actually 
near +1 degree C.,
rather than 
being near 
+3 or +4 degree C.,
then future global 
warming could not 
be a problem at all
= totally harmless.