Pokrovsky O.M.
2019
Cloud Changes in the
Period of Global Warming:
The Results of the
International Satellite Project
Russian Academy of Sciences,
NOTE:
Clouds cover
two-thirds of
Earths surface.
They reflect 30%
of the total energy
from the Sun,
back to space.
The more clouds
there are in the day,
the less sunlight
reaches Earth's
surface.
A small
change in the
percentage of
cloud cover
can easily
warm, or cool,
our planet.
Cloud changes
warm or cool
Earth's surface,
but not the
troposphere.
That means
weather satellite
global average
temperature data,
measured in
the troposphere,
would NOT be
useful for this study,
and was not used,
even though satellites
have much better
global coverage
than surface
temperature
measurements.
Clouds over
the dark oceans
change Earth's albedo
( reflection of sunlight )
Earth's albedo
changes less
from clouds
over a bright
desert.
Clouds in
the tropics
will reflect
more sunlight,
than clouds
over the poles.
SUMMARY:
A new paper in Russian,
by OM Pokrovsky, shows
global cloud cover decreased
from 1986 to 2000, based on
ISCCP satellite data
( the U.S. “International Satellite
Cloud Climatology Project" )
Most of the differences
between the climate models
the UN's IPCC favors,
come from different
assumptions about clouds.
Cloud feedbacks are the
“largest source of uncertainty”
[IPCC, 2007]
see "REFERENCE", below
Cloud changes
could explain
all the global
warming from
1986 – 2000,
and the
temperature
"pause"
after 2000.
”Thus, cloud cover
changes over
three decades
during the period
of global warming
can explain not only
the linear trend
of global temperature,
but also a certain
inter-annual variability.”
We don’t know why
clouds decreased.
It wasn’t due to CO2,
which kept rising.
Cloud cover changes
could be caused by
many factors:
(1)
Changes in the solar magnetic field,
affecting cosmic rays, which drive
cloud seeding
( the Henrik Svensmark theory ).
(2)
Changes in the solar wind,
or by solar spectral changes,
( not included in climate models ).
(3)
Changes in aerosols ( atmospheric
particulate matter due to man made
air pollution, volcanoes, bacteria,
and plankton ).
(4)
Changes in jet-streams,
or ocean currents,
that move cold air
into warm air zones.
That's a recipe for
more cloud formation
(5)
Changes in Earth’s
magnetic field.
Clouds are
masses of ions,
and magnetic
fields affect ions.
Global Climate Models
assume cloud changes
are a feedback, not a
direct cause of global
warming or cooling.
Models assume
no outside force
changes cloud cover.
In 2012, Miller et al.,
said climate models
got cloud feedbacks
wrong by 70W/m2 —
an error that's
20 times larger
than the alleged
total effect
of doubling
the CO2 level !
The chart below
describes the
relationship between
global temperatures
and cloud cover.
There's a +0.07C
warming effect
for each 1% decrease
in cloud cover.
A fall of 4% in cloud cover
would lead to +0.3C
of warming.
A 4% cloud cover decline
happened from 1985 to 2000,
and the +0.3 degrees C.
of expected waming
is roughly the same as the
actual amount of warming
in Hadley British data !
The chart below
shows the results of the
regression analysis,
of the global clouds series,
( ISCCP )
and the surface air temperature
( CRUTEM3 )
"As global temperatures,
we used the data of CRUTEM 3
( University of East Anglia,
Great Britain,
"High global cloud cover
is associated with
low global temperatures,
demonstrating the
cooling effect of clouds."
"The regression linear
approximation model
suggests that a 1% increase
in global cloud cover
corresponds to a global
decrease in temperature
of about 0.07oC ,
and vice versa."
"From a statistical point of view,
this model accounts for about
31% of the observed dispersion
of surface air temperature."
" ( A ) High ( percentage of )
low clouds are associated
with low global temperatures,
demonstrating the cooling effect
of low clouds."
"A simple linear
regression model
suggests that
a 1% increase
in global l
low cloud cover
corresponds to a
global temperature drop
of around 0.06 degrees C .,
and vice versa."
"Thus, cloud cover
changes over
three decades
during the period
of global warming
can explain not only
the linear trend
of global temperature,
but also a certain
inter-annual variability."
" ... the factor
of cloud cover
on climate change
cannot be ignored
due to the significant
contribution of this
climate-forming
parameter, and
should be studied
more carefully
to improve
climate forecasts."
REFERENCE:
IPCC, Assessment Report 4,
2007,
Working Group 1,
The Physical Science Basis,
Chapter 8. [PDF]
Page 636
8.6.3.2 “Clouds”