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Saturday, December 7, 2019

Modern climate science is 1/3 science and 2/3 science fiction

The five big questions 
of climate science 
would support 
government policy 
changes ONLY if 
all five answers 
were "yes".

Based on what is known 
about climate change, 
during earth's past,
I believe all five answers 
are "no".

Which means there's
no logical reason 
to use the five beliefs 
to set public policies:

1) 
“Is climate change 
mostly human caused ? 

No one knows, except to state 
that humans did NOT cause 
any of the warming or cooling
for over 4.5 billion tears 
... yet climate alarmists claim 
natural causes of climate
change are now just "noise".


2)
Is the human-caused portion 
of global warming large enough 
to be damaging ? 

There is no way 
to know what 
percentage is 
"human caused".

But total warming 
since the 1690s, 
of roughly 
+2 degrees C.,
hurt no one.


3)
Do the climate models 
accurately predict 
climate change ? 

No. 
The models predict
2x to 4x the 
actual warming, 
depending on 
when observations 
start, and what global
average temperature
compilation is used .

Starting in 1940 
and using only 
satellite temperature
data from 1979, 
creates the 
largest errors.

Starting in 1975, 
and using only 
surface temperature 
dar, creates the 
smallest errors.


4)
Would the proposed policy 
changes substantially 
reduce climate change 
and resulting damage ? 

Climate change 
would not slow much, 
if any.

"Resulting damage" 
is only imaginary 
damage -- a climate
fantasyland.



5)
Would the policy changes 
do more good than harm
to humanity ?

The costs would be high 
to replace inexpensive, 
reliable, constant sources 
of power ... with expensive, 
unreliable, inconsistent 
sources of power.

It's hard to believe 
doing that would be 
the best use of
a lot of money, 
when there are 
one billion people 
with no electricity 
on our planet.


Climate models 
over-predict warming 
because they claim 
only a small amount 
of direct warming 
from a doubling of CO2
levels in the atmosphere.
 (about +1 degree C. )

That claim could 
be defended 
with results of 
lab experiments.

But the 
climate models, 
except for one 
Russian model, 
then triple the 
claimed warming 
from CO2 alone.

And suddenly the
climate models claim,
on average, that a 
CO2 doubling has 
a water vapor
positive feedback, 
causing more warming 
than CO2 alone -- 
adding up to a
+3 degree C. warming, 
per CO2 doubling,
rather than +1 degree C.

+ 1 degree C. warming 
from CO2 is a rough 
estimate based on 
laboratory science.

The extra +2 degrees C. 
warming is science fiction.

The imaginary water vapor 
positive feedback process 
is responsible for most 
(about 2/3) of the warming 
the climate models predict.

They sell the laboratory physics 
supporting the +1 degree C.
of direct CO2 warming, but then 
switch to the full +3 degrees 
of warming, with no evidence 
actual warming has ever been 
higher than +1 degrees 
per CO2 doubling.

That means the 
UN's IPCC science is: 
-- One-third based 
on real science and 
-- Two-thirds science fiction