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Thursday, January 23, 2020

Will the next "Carrington Event" damage the electric grid ? And is it about time to protect the grid ?

Quotes directly below 
are from 
"The Sun Kings", 
by Stuart Clark.

“It began 
around 6:30 
in the evening 
on August 28. 

An aurora spread 
across the northern sky 
as far south as Cuba. 

The greatest intensity 
in color was at the Zenith. 

The aurora’s rays emitted 
an intense red light. 

Flashes of white light 
appeared among them. 

Similar auroras occurred 
in the 
southern hemisphere 
with one observed 
as far north as Sydney, 
Australia and in Chile.

The aurora continued 
on August 29, and then 
again on September 1 
and through September 3rd.

Telegraph operators 
were thrown from 
their equipment – 
equipment too hot 
to touch from the 
surge of electric 
currents.

An analysis showed 
hat equipment connected 
to the longest lines was 
damaged the most severely. 

These conditions 
were observed 
in the United States 
and London.”


The above events
actually happened 
in 1859, and are 
referred to as the 
Carrington Event, 
named for the
astronomer 
who reported on
the solar storm.

Other solar storms, 
roughly 40% the size 
of the Carrington Event, 
were in 1921 and 1989. 

The 1989 event 
caused the grid 
in Quebec, Canada 
to fail.

Another solar storm 
anywhere near the size 
of the Carrington Event, 
or even half that size,
could significantly damage
the current electric grid.

Specifically, 
any of he 300 
high voltage 
transformers 
in the U.S. 
and Canada 
could fail.

The risk 
is high 
because 
it requires 
a year to build 
a custom size
high voltage 
transformer, 
and there are 
very few
potential
replacements 
available for 
transformers 
now in service. 


The Congressional 
Research Service
has said:
“While a few 
manufacturers in 
the United States 
claim to be able to 
manufacture 
transformers 
rated over 300 KV, 
it’s not certain 
they can do so.”

“High voltage 
transformers make up 
less than 3% of all
transformers in U.S. 
power substations, 
but they carry 60%-70% 
of the nation’s electricity.” 

“The destruction of more than 
three transmission substations 
would cause long-term blackouts 
in many areas of the country.” 

“Reportedly, a FERC power flow 
analysis in 2013 identified 
30 such critical HV transformer
substations across the continental 
United States; disabling as few as 
nine of these substations 
during a time of peak electricity 
demand reportedly could cause 
a ‘coast-to-coast blackout.’ ”
( from EIA's "High Voltage 
Transmission Lines" ) 

Burnouts of 
very high voltage 
transformers 
would not be an 
ordinary type of 
blackout that 
would be fixed 
in a few days.

This potential disaster
could also result from 
an electromagnetic 
pulse (EMP) nuclear 
attack.

President Trump 
issued executive 
order, EO 13865,
in March, 2019, 
to establish actions 
needed to protect 
the country from 
such pulses. 

EO 13865 is 
the first action 
that would address
the civilian population,
not just the military, 
from a Carrington 
Event, or from an 
EMP nuclear attack.

Another 
Carrington Event 
is inevitable, with
a 100% probability.

Maybe this year, 
or this decade, 
or the next decade
 -- no one knows.

Not knowing 
the date
has resulted in 
almost no action
for decades.

President Trump's 
Executive Order 13865
is a start, but far from
a solution.