This is my last COVID -19
science article for this
climate science blog.
I may write about economic
effects in my finance blog.
Here is what
I have learned
so far:
THE BIG PICTURE:
Don't listen
to politicians,
or government
bureaucrat
scientists,
claiming to be
COVID-19 experts !
Until the COVID-19
pandemic ends,
and there is time
for data analysis,
there will be
no COVID-19
experts.
Not one person ... yet.
But there are generic,
proven ways to slow
an epidemic:
DON'T PANIC !
STRESS AFFECTS
YOUR HEALTH !
Even if you
do get COVID-19,
there's a 99.9%
chance you'll
survive.
You may not even
know you were
infected !
SARS-CoV-2,
the virus
that causes
COVID-19,
or the "Wuhan Flu",
attacks mainly older,
retired people, like me,
but younger workers
have been affected
too -- mainly by
over-reactions
to the disease.
Economic distress,
from partial lockdowns,
has serious heath
effects that are
rarely discussed.
People who
avoid doctors
and hospitals,
fearing COVID,
may degrade
their own health.
DETAILS:
The Basic, Generic
Epidemic Strategy:
Reduce the probability
of having contact with
any infected person,
who may have mild
symptoms.
(which is one reason
why COVID spreads
so easily).
In general,
a person
with mild
symptoms
is less likely
to spread a virus,
than an obviously
sick person.
It is still unknown
if an infected person
with no symptoms
can spread the disease.
Some research suggests
living in the same home
with an infected person
who feels healthy could
spread the disease.
WHAT TO DO
-- Use face masks indoors
to reduce the distance
of potentially contaminated
"spray" when YOU cough,
sneeze, sing in church
and even talk!
A violent cough,
by a person
with no mask on,
can "spray"
for over 20 feet.
A mask shortens
the spray distance,
by an unknown amount.
-- Increase person-to-person
distance indoors and outdoors
If you can keep your distance
from others outdoors, wearing
a mask outdoors is mainly
a reminder for others to stay
a good distance from you.
But ...
there is no science
behind the
"magic" 6 foot
social distancing.
Except to assume
12 feet would be better,
and 3 feet would be worse
than 6 feet !
-- Shorten the timing
of person-to-person
interactions
-- Sneeze
or cough
into your arm
(inner elbow)
Better yet,
isolate yourself
if you are sneezing
or coughing !
-- Hand wash for
at least 20 seconds
... but make a habit
of not touching
any part of your face
with your hands,
AT ALL TIMES !
-- Avoid all “super
spreading” events,
where you will
come in contact
with lots of people.
A face mask
won't help much
if you are too close
to other people.
In five months I have worn
a mask only four times,
three times for doctor visits.
I can't stand wearing masks
... but of course I want
everyone else in the world
to wear them !
I don't recommend masks
because I like them, this is
a recommendation based on
science in the past 50 years.
Do not keep touching
your mask, or using the
same mask every day !
Do not exercise
with a mask on !
Medical Actions Needed:
-- Fast testing results
-- Quickly isolating new cases
-- Contact tracing
HERD IMMUNITY MYTHS:
Herd immunity
for COVID-19
could be
a nightmare.
We’ve already had
about 175, 000 deaths.
It's possible 20 million
Americans have been
infected.
Getting to herd immunity
could require 1-2 million
total deaths.
Herd immunity
does NOT mean
that all COVID
infections stop.
It means the
reproductive rate ( Rt )
would drop below 1.0,
with no containment
measures.
Without an effective
vaccine, which is
not yet available,
and may never be,
we really need fast
testing results.
One or two days,
not one to two weeks.
Containment requires
fast test results.
SARS-CoV-2 is NOT
an influenza virus.
A young infected person
might lose her sense
of smell, or have no
obvious flu symptoms.
For her grandmother,
living in the same home,
catching COVID-19
from her would be a risk.
The disease can alter
grandma's immune system
and reduce the defenses
of airway cells.
Leading to severe acute
respiratory distress,
degradation of blood
vessel linings, tissue
damage, and death.
Permanent lung damage
is likely for those who
end up in intensive care
and survive.
Especially for older people.
Like me.