U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia’s national oil companies (i.e. the only companies granted access to the Arctic) have made things worse for Russia. Russia keeps discovering new Arctic oil fields. But Arctic production requires about $100 oil to break even. And only two companies can lay their hands on license blocks, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft.
Gazprom discovered a new shallower gas deposit at the Leningradskoye field that has yielded flow rates above 1 MCm per day, the highest-ever attained within Russia’s Arctic region. The Leningradskoye field boasts reserves of 1.9 TCm, that might increase in the future, with further exploration.
Intensive geological appraisals of untapped fields date back to the late 1980s and early 1990s. The biggest find by modern Russia is the Universitetskaya prospect (renamed Pobeda), drilled in 2014 with the active participation of ExxonMobil. Rosneft boasted of 3P reserves of 1MMbbls crude and 499 BCm gas, but the field’s past five years have been characterized by total idleness.
Rosneft did seismic surveying of the bountiful Prinovozemelskiy license in 2018, and the Russian company decided to start drilling again. The results are still unknown, as Rosneft only finished drilling operations in late September 2020.
The Kara Sea, home to most known Arctic discoveries, has experienced the most tangible increase in air temperatures – with the annual averages having risen 5°C since 1998.
Few people live there. But warming would open up the Northern Sea Route for navigation. Coastal territories along the Kara Sea would still have negative temperatures for an average of eight months a year. Temperatures in July fluctuate between 1 and -6°C. With continued warming, drilling campaigns and navigation seasons could be extended, and cost less.