"The common element they have is they raised issues with the central theme of the UN International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are the primary cause of climate change and that human CO2 emissions are causing dangerous global warming.
In no particular order these issues include: one, a questioning of Willie Soon’s use of machine learning to feel confident enough in patterns observed to forecast a diminishing solar intensity;
two, a paper by two researchers at the Institute for High Temperatures of the Russian Academy Science that on first review appears to support the work of van Wijngaarden and Happer on Earth’s thermal radiation of five most abundant greenhouse gases; and
three, two papers appearing in AAAS Science Advances that question IPCC’s claims in its Summary for Policymakers of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, SPM, 2021) that there was no climate change for 2000 years, until after the industrial revolution and its use of fossil fuels.
These papers seem remarkable because since the mid-1990s, AAAS Science has had the editorial policy of not publishing anything that questions the “wisdom” of the IPCC.
This policy followed by other journals as well has led to many highly questionable “bandwagon” studies that can be described as science fiction.
Also, TWTW will mention efforts of others questioning the IPCC process as well as the absurdity of the energy policies of the Biden administration.
But first, a wide-ranging interview of physicist and philosopher Christopher Essex by Calvin Beisner will be presented.
Belief in the Ignorance of Experts:
The blurb under the video of Christopher Essex by Calvin Beisner of the Cornwall Alliance For The Stewardship of Creation reads: “’Just follow the science!’
That exhortation gets used to silence anyone who questions anything from COVID lockdowns and mask and vaccine mandates to catastrophic manmade climate change to Darwinism to atheism.
Challenge official public policy on lockdowns, masks, and vaccines, or on catastrophic global warming, and you’re a ‘science denier.’
Challenge Darwinism or atheism, and you’re a ‘science denier.’
But just what is science?
How can it contribute to our understanding of our world—and how we get along with each other?
Tonight’s wide-ranging discussion features Dr. Christopher Essex, ... the professor of both physics and applied mathematics at the University of Western Ontario, Canada,
co-author with Dr. Ross McKitrick of Taken By Storm: The Troubled Science, Policy, and Politics of Global Warming (one of my favorite books on climate change), and all-round creative and challenging thinker. The conversation will go far beyond climate change to the whole state of scientific activity today.”
The interview is wide-ranging with a number of succinct comments by Essex.
Some of them are presented below in an effort to encourage readers to watch the entire interview, which is one hour and forty minutes.
Comments by TWTW in brackets.
• There is no such thing as average temperature of the earth.
An average is a statistic, not a measurement.
Temperature indicates a state (condition) which is not meaningful.
[NOAA’s Climate.gov., no longer reports a single temperature and states: “Earth’s temperature has risen by 0.14° F (0.08° C) per decade since 1880, and the rate of warming over the past 40 years is more than twice that: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade since 1981.”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
• The more Essex learns about thermodynamics of radiation the less he feels humanity knows.
• Essex is suspicious of probability and statistics.
[As Ross McKitrick has shown, using tools of descriptive statistics for inferential statistics is a giant leap, which advocates of dangerous CO2-caused global warming have misunderstood.
Descriptive statistics explain the characteristics of a sample of a population.
Where inferential statistics rely on probability theory to suggest underlying characteristics of the entire population.
The IPCC’s greenhouse gas attribution process is based on a misunderstanding of the Gauss-Markov (GM) Theorem and the conditions needed for unbiased and efficient rules for calculation. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05913-7
• The IPCC claims very small changes in temperature are significant.
But these are tiny when compared to daily, seasonal, and annual changes.
• The models do not build the effect of water vapor until later, but it is an integral part of the greenhouse effect.
You cannot throw it in later and expect the model to predict. [this is done after falsely balancing CO2 with aerosols to meet (actual0 surface temperatures].
Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas.
He designed a completely good atmospheric model with only water vapor, the other gases have minimal effect.
• People doing modeling first recognized they were working with “cartoons” but lost track of that.
• Making policy is a far deeper problem and working with computers to see into the future is a deeper problem than many realize, even experts.
Numerics are a question of recipes.
• Computers are not an oracle.
Mathematics goes beyond computers.
... • With weather-based models there is a symmetry problem.
What is conserved in the differential equations is not the same that is conserved in the discrete maps (graphs).
• Along with Richard Lindzen, Essex believes the highly used Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) concept does not matter.
ECS does not exist in nature; it’s a value in models.
As a result, we have computational overstabilization, trying to stabilize problems in the models, etc.
As a result, long term dynamics is gone
• A big problem is over interpreting the models and not understanding their limits.
Anyone who has a tool must understand the limits of the tool.
[After a discussion on the closure problem in turbulence which goes back to the 19th century and that the influence of clouds completely overwhelms the effect of greenhouse gases (at least in the real atmosphere), Essex discusses the corruption of science and states that it has happened. For example, the claim that there is a consensus is a corruption. There is no one view.]
• Scientists engage in a duality, they must be humble, not to fool themselves, yet they have the arrogance to tackle the mysteries of the universe. This requires humility.
• A good definition of science is the belief in the ignorance of experts, [the quote from Richard Feynman]. We Need to see evidence and reasoning, see for yourself.
• Highly educated people get caught up in herds, including scientists. Ordinary people often don’t.
• You have to stop being afraid!
The doom that will come to get you, is not the one you are expecting.
The above is a sample of what was discussed.
TWTW readers may benefit from watching the entire interview. It reinforced the efforts by TWTW to question everything, including assumptions, physical evidence, reasoning process, and conclusions. http://www.sepp.org/twtwfiles/2021/TWTW%2011-27-21.pdf
Even though mathematics is the language of science, mathematics and logic are not sufficient for understanding."
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Monday, November 29, 2021
"After the UN Conference of Parties, COP 26, ended with a whimper, a number of diverse topics appeared.
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