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"Green jobs are of intense interest but heretofore have not been rigorously estimated. Here we correct disinformation being disseminated by analysts and interest groups who are opposed to green jobs programs and who minimize their potential significance. However, our findings also upend much conventional wisdom being propagated by green jobs advocates.
We estimated the green jobs created by the USA economy 1970 – 2030 by industry, occupation, skill, and salaries (1). The findings derived are relevant to many of the economic, environmental, and job issues currently being debated, including infrastructure spending, climate mitigation policies, the Green New Deal, etc.
We show that:
Jobs generated by the USA green economy have increased from 1% of total jobs in 1970 to 6% in 2020, and are forecast to comprise 14% of jobs in 2030;
Most persons in these jobs do not realize that they owe their livelihood to the green economy;
Jobs generated by the green economy are at least 3 or 4 times larger than realized;
Green energy investments have net positive economic and jobs benefits;
Most green jobs are not attractive, well paid, or unionized;
Green jobs salaries are not higher than average;
Advocates are their own worst enemies by misrepresenting green job realities;
The significance of green jobs is not appreciated.
Green Economy
The USA green economy is much larger than is realized, is growing rapidly, and will continue to increase rapidly. Jobs generated by the green economy increased from less than 1 million and 1% of USA jobs in 1970 to over 8 million jobs and 6% by 2020. By 2030, they total 24 million and comprise 14% of all jobs (Figure 1). Over 1970 - 2030, they are forecast to increase 16X as rapidly as total jobs. These estimates are much larger than most of those currently available and emphasize that green jobs are being seriously under-estimated.
Most jobs generated by the green economy are not “green” (Figure 2). Rather, the vast majority are standard jobs for accountants, engineers, analysts, clerks, factory workers, mechanics, etc., and most of the persons thus employed do not realize they owe their livelihood to the green economy. Many companies, whether they realize it or not, owe their profits – and in some cases their existence – to “green” expenditures.
MISI Green Job Definition
There is no consistent definition of a “green job.” Different estimates of USA green jobs are available from a variety of sources, and vary widely. National estimates differ by a factor of 40 and even recent estimates differ by a factor of 10, and state estimates also differ markedly.
Our green job concept is not based on industrial or occupational characteristics or on survey methods. Rather, we define green jobs as full time equivalent (FTE) jobs generated – directly, indirectly, or induced – by the green economy.
Green Economy Detail
We resolve the contentious debate over the relative salaries of green jobs. Since the vast majority of jobs generated by the green economy are standard “non-green” jobs, the average salaries for these jobs must – due to the law of large numbers – be close to the USA average.
While many of the jobs generated pay higher than average salaries, many others do not (Figure 3). For example, three types of the most numerous green jobs created – Refuse and Recycle Workers, Insulation Workers, and Septic Tank Cleaners – pay below average wages. Thus, it is not valid to contend that jobs generated by the green economy pay salaries that are significantly higher – or lower -- than average.
Most jobs in firms producing green products or services are not “green.” For example, in a wind turbine factory there are few if any classic green jobs. Rather, the job profile reflects that of a typical manufacturing facility with numerous jobs for Assemblers, Machinists, Engineers, Inspectors, Laborers, Clerks, etc. Nevertheless, these are green jobs due to the product being produced.
Green jobs advocates can be their own worst enemies. Advocates and politicians have greatly tightened the criteria for defining green jobs and have, paradoxically, greatly reduced the number of jobs that can, according to these criteria, be defined as “green.”
The more stringent the criteria – high pay, good benefits, quality jobs, union jobs, favorable working conditions, etc., the fewer the jobs that are defined as green. The reality is that most jobs created by the green economy do not adhere to the stringent criteria.
A very strict list of criteria greatly reduces estimates of the number of green jobs. Utilization of these criteria seriously underestimates the size and rates of growth of USA green jobs, and will hinder efforts to address pressing environmental, climate, and energy issues and to expand the green economy.
Jobs generated by the USA green economy have increased from 1% of total jobs in 1970 to 6% in 2020, and are forecast to comprise 14% of jobs in 2030;
Most persons in these jobs do not realize that they owe their livelihood to the green economy;
Jobs generated by the green economy are at least 3 or 4 times larger than realized;
Green energy investments have net positive economic and jobs benefits;
Most green jobs are not attractive, well paid, or unionized;
Green jobs salaries are not higher than average;
Advocates are their own worst enemies by misrepresenting green job realities;
The significance of green jobs is not appreciated.
Green Economy
The USA green economy is much larger than is realized, is growing rapidly, and will continue to increase rapidly. Jobs generated by the green economy increased from less than 1 million and 1% of USA jobs in 1970 to over 8 million jobs and 6% by 2020. By 2030, they total 24 million and comprise 14% of all jobs (Figure 1). Over 1970 - 2030, they are forecast to increase 16X as rapidly as total jobs. These estimates are much larger than most of those currently available and emphasize that green jobs are being seriously under-estimated.
Most jobs generated by the green economy are not “green” (Figure 2). Rather, the vast majority are standard jobs for accountants, engineers, analysts, clerks, factory workers, mechanics, etc., and most of the persons thus employed do not realize they owe their livelihood to the green economy. Many companies, whether they realize it or not, owe their profits – and in some cases their existence – to “green” expenditures.
MISI Green Job Definition
There is no consistent definition of a “green job.” Different estimates of USA green jobs are available from a variety of sources, and vary widely. National estimates differ by a factor of 40 and even recent estimates differ by a factor of 10, and state estimates also differ markedly.
Our green job concept is not based on industrial or occupational characteristics or on survey methods. Rather, we define green jobs as full time equivalent (FTE) jobs generated – directly, indirectly, or induced – by the green economy.
Green Economy Detail
We resolve the contentious debate over the relative salaries of green jobs. Since the vast majority of jobs generated by the green economy are standard “non-green” jobs, the average salaries for these jobs must – due to the law of large numbers – be close to the USA average.
While many of the jobs generated pay higher than average salaries, many others do not (Figure 3). For example, three types of the most numerous green jobs created – Refuse and Recycle Workers, Insulation Workers, and Septic Tank Cleaners – pay below average wages. Thus, it is not valid to contend that jobs generated by the green economy pay salaries that are significantly higher – or lower -- than average.
Most jobs in firms producing green products or services are not “green.” For example, in a wind turbine factory there are few if any classic green jobs. Rather, the job profile reflects that of a typical manufacturing facility with numerous jobs for Assemblers, Machinists, Engineers, Inspectors, Laborers, Clerks, etc. Nevertheless, these are green jobs due to the product being produced.
Green jobs advocates can be their own worst enemies. Advocates and politicians have greatly tightened the criteria for defining green jobs and have, paradoxically, greatly reduced the number of jobs that can, according to these criteria, be defined as “green.”
The more stringent the criteria – high pay, good benefits, quality jobs, union jobs, favorable working conditions, etc., the fewer the jobs that are defined as green. The reality is that most jobs created by the green economy do not adhere to the stringent criteria.
A very strict list of criteria greatly reduces estimates of the number of green jobs. Utilization of these criteria seriously underestimates the size and rates of growth of USA green jobs, and will hinder efforts to address pressing environmental, climate, and energy issues and to expand the green economy.
Average 2020 Annual Salaries of Selected Jobs
Generated by the Green Economy
Contrary to green jobs advocates’ hype, many green jobs are not necessarily glamorous or desirable. Thus, forecast jobs openings for occupations such as Recycle Worker, Hazardous Materials Removal Worker, and Septic Tank Cleaner greatly exceed those for occupations generally promoted, such as Wind Turbine Technician, Solar Photovoltaic Installer, and Environmental Engineer. Advocates must be realistic as to the “green jobs of the future” and to relevant education and training policies.
There are numerous studies contending that green initiatives create substantial numbers of jobs and just the opposite – that they destroy jobs. Nevertheless, the balance of research indicates that investments in green energy programs have favorable net positive economic and jobs benefits.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupational data have serious limitations for green jobs assessments for they do not include numerous designations that would be useful in green jobs analyses. Further, BLS occupational classifications will never be able to identify many distinct green occupations such as “Green Lawyer,” “Green Accountant,” “Green Welder,” “Green Programmer,” “Green Carpenter,” etc. Further, how “green” an occupation is does not necessarily depend on the occupational definition. Rather, it is also determined by the product or service involved.
Green Jobs Workers
Identifying the job openings and the requisite skills, education, training, and experience required is especially important for education and training purposes (2). We estimated the average annual job openings for jobs generated by the green economy through 2030 (Figure 4). The vast majority of the annual job openings will not be for “green” or even “semi-green” occupations.
There are numerous studies contending that green initiatives create substantial numbers of jobs and just the opposite – that they destroy jobs. Nevertheless, the balance of research indicates that investments in green energy programs have favorable net positive economic and jobs benefits.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) occupational data have serious limitations for green jobs assessments for they do not include numerous designations that would be useful in green jobs analyses. Further, BLS occupational classifications will never be able to identify many distinct green occupations such as “Green Lawyer,” “Green Accountant,” “Green Welder,” “Green Programmer,” “Green Carpenter,” etc. Further, how “green” an occupation is does not necessarily depend on the occupational definition. Rather, it is also determined by the product or service involved.
Green Jobs Workers
Identifying the job openings and the requisite skills, education, training, and experience required is especially important for education and training purposes (2). We estimated the average annual job openings for jobs generated by the green economy through 2030 (Figure 4). The vast majority of the annual job openings will not be for “green” or even “semi-green” occupations.
For example, over the coming decade the average annual USA job openings generated by the green economy will total 30 times more Office Clerks (42,000) than Wind Turbine Service Technicians (1,400); 11 times more Assemblers and Fabricators (26,300) than Solar Photovoltaic Installers (2,300); 16 times more Construction Laborers (22,000) than Foresters (1,400); and 11 times more Customer Service Representative (44,000) than Environmental Engineers (4,000).
Though 2030, there will be relatively few annual job openings for Wind Turbine Service Technicians or for Solar Photovoltaic Installers (3). Accordingly, it is not advisable to produce many thousands of workers annually in these occupations. The end result is likely to be disappointed workers trained in these skills functioning as baristas and fast-food workers.
Further, even for certifiable green occupations, over the coming decade most annual job openings generated by the green economy will not be for the types of glamorous green jobs that are the most publicized and hyped; e.g., Wind Turbine Service Technician, Solar Photovoltaic Installer, Environmental Scientist, etc. Rather, most of annual job openings will be for occupations such as Refuse and Recycle Workers – 21,400 annual job openings;
Water and Waste Treatment Plant Operators – 10,500 annual openings; Hazardous Materials Removal Workers – 5,800 annual job openings; Septic Tank Cleaners – 4,200 annual openings; Insulation Workers – 3,300 annual openings. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that green job advocates will be publicizing Refuse and Recycle Workers or Septic Tank Cleaners as the glamorous “green jobs of the future.”
Though 2030, there will be relatively few annual job openings for Wind Turbine Service Technicians or for Solar Photovoltaic Installers (3). Accordingly, it is not advisable to produce many thousands of workers annually in these occupations. The end result is likely to be disappointed workers trained in these skills functioning as baristas and fast-food workers.
Further, even for certifiable green occupations, over the coming decade most annual job openings generated by the green economy will not be for the types of glamorous green jobs that are the most publicized and hyped; e.g., Wind Turbine Service Technician, Solar Photovoltaic Installer, Environmental Scientist, etc. Rather, most of annual job openings will be for occupations such as Refuse and Recycle Workers – 21,400 annual job openings;
Water and Waste Treatment Plant Operators – 10,500 annual openings; Hazardous Materials Removal Workers – 5,800 annual job openings; Septic Tank Cleaners – 4,200 annual openings; Insulation Workers – 3,300 annual openings. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that green job advocates will be publicizing Refuse and Recycle Workers or Septic Tank Cleaners as the glamorous “green jobs of the future.”
Author Dr. Roger Bezdek has over 30 years’ experience in the energy, utility, environmental, and regulatory areas, serving in private industry, academia, and the Federal government, and is the founder and president of MISI – a Washington, D.C.-based economic, energy, and environmental research firm. His background includes energy R&D, technology, and markets; oil, coal, natural gas, hydrogen, renewable, hydro, and nuclear energy analyses; assessment of DOE energy programs; estimation of the costs and benefits of energy systems; economic analyses of environmental and energy technologies; energy forecasting; and creation, funding, and management of Federal government and private industry energy programs.