Total Pageviews

Friday, June 10, 2016

Forecasts by Scientists vs. Scientific Forecasts

Climate "science" is led by people who don't understand, and can't explain, the complex causes and relationships of many variables believed to be responsible for climate change.

They confuse mathematical correlation with causation.

They ignore evidence that contradicts their long-term climate forecasts.

They've repeated their long term climate forecasts for 40 years so far, even after actual temperatures have proven them wrong for 40 years.

The same people who make the forecasts also compile the actual average temperature, which they frequently "adjust" to better match their forecast -- yet they have still been wrong for 40 years!




Climate change uncertainty comes from:
(1) Missing data (99.999% missing),
(2) Data containing measurement errors,
(3) Data series that are unstable and non-cyclical, and
(4) Knowledge about the climate change process is VERY incomplete.

Average global temperature, compiled from measurements with thermometers at ground stations throughout the world, is not a useful statistic because:
(1) No one lives in the average temperature,
(2) An average temperature statistic is not "the climate",
(3) 99.999% of Earth's historical data are unknown, and as a result,
(4) No one knows what a "normal" average temperature is.




The current assumption by the "warmunists" is that Earth was at an optimal average temperature and carbon dioxide concentration in 1750 … which they claim to know with false precision (because almost no real-time measurements were made during that century).

That '1750' assumption is bizarre, and wrong:
--- The climate was unusually cool between 1300 and 1800, based on climate proxy data, and anecdotal evidence left behind in writing.

--- The CO2 level in 1750 is believed to have been near the lowest level in 4.5 billion years -- and not a healthy level to support green plant growth.

That wrong assumption about the climate being 'perfect' in 1750 is being used for important government policy decisions.




Climate "experts" are hired by governments only if they believe in a coming climate catastrophe -- and surprise, surprise -- after they are hired, these people forecast a coming climate catastrophe!

No one should care what they believe in.

Beliefs are not science.




With no scientific proof, the government employee climate "experts" claim CO2 controls the average temperature.

--- That claim allows them to blame global warming on the rise of man made CO2 in the air after 1940 … and never mind that the average temperature went down from 1940 to 1975, not up.

--- That claim ignores one very important fact: 
There's no evidence of any human influence on the 4.5 billion years of climate change before 1975 … or after 2003 ... and no explanation of how man made CO2 could have suddenly replaced natural variations as the 'climate controller' from 1975 to 2003, when there was global warming.




The general public has a lot of faith in the value of "expert" forecasts, aided by the mainstream press ignoring the fact that "expert" forecasts have been wrong for the past 40 years.

Faith increases when "experts" agree with one another -- aided by the mainstream press ignoring skeptical scientists, except to criticize and character attack them.

The mainstream press prefers scary pronouncements and predictions from people such as Al Gore, Barack Obama, and the Pope -- all of whom are ignorant on the subject of climate science ... and will gain political power if people believe their dire warnings.





Climate scaremongering and wrong predictions are not new -- consider the following headlines from the New York Times from 1924 to 2005:
Sept. 18, 1924:
   “MacMillan Reports Signs of New Ice Age”


March 27, 1933:
    “America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776”


May 21, 1974
   “Scientists Ponder Why World’s Climate is Changing: A Major Cooling Widely Considered to be Inevitable”


Dec. 27, 2005
   “Past Hot Times Hold Few Reasons to Relax About New Warming”





The UN's IPCC Summary Report is not a scientific forecast because knowledge of the causes of climate change is far from complete.

The popular 'CO2 is evil' climate physics model is obviously wrong because it underlies the inaccurate climate forecasts for the past 40 years!

Opinions of a small group of climate modelers are obscured by mathematics and complex writing, into what appears to be a "scientific climate forecast".

But their "forecasts" are nothing more than opinions, from "experts" who have no idea what caused climate change in the past 4.5 billion years.

All climate forecasts are based on opinions.

Opinions are not useful for forecasts.

That's why the forecasts have been wrong for 40 years.






These climate modelers are so stupid they do not even try to learn from their wrong climate forecasts in the past 40 years, in an effort to make better climate forecasts.

--- They have been making the same wrong 'coming climate change catastrophe' forecast for the past 40 years.

--- Making the same dire climate change forecast over and over, and expecting different results, is one definition of insanity.