Doran and Zimmerman, 2009
A paper by Maggie Kendall Zimmerman,
a University of Illinois student,
and her master’s thesis advisor,
Peter Doran, was published in EOS.
They claimed “97% of climate
scientists agree” that mean
global temperatures have risen
since before the 1800s
and that humans are
a significant contributing factor.
The researchers sent a two-minute
online survey to 10,257 Earth scientists
working for universities and
government research agencies,
generating 3,146 responses.
The two researchers
started out by excluding
thousands of scientists
most likely to think that the Sun,
or planetary movements,
might have something to do
with the climate on Earth.
They deliberately
excluded:
solar scientists,
space scientists,
cosmologists,
physicists,
meteorologists
and astronomers.
That left the 10,257 scientists
in disciplines such as geology,
oceanography, paleontology,
and geochemistry.
Note that only 5%
of the respondents
self-identified
as climate scientists.
The survey asked two questions:
“Q1.
When compared with pre-1800s levels,
do you think that mean global temperatures
have generally risen, fallen,
or remained relatively constant?
-- I would answer "risen", but caution
the global average includes a higher
percentage of wild guesses, than
actual measurements, and those
actual measurements are so rough,
and so often "adjusted", that it is
possible there was no warming.
(90% answered “risen”
to question 1)
Q2.
Do you think human activity
is a significant contributing factor
in changing mean global temperatures?”
-- I don't know what "significant" means,
but I would answer "yes", because
I believe it's possible humans
have caused all the warming,
from faulty measurements and
economic growth !
- Faulty measurements:
--- "Adjustments" to raw data,
---- Wild guesses of temperatures
made for a majority of the Earth's
surface, where there are
no thermometers, and
- Economic growth over time:
Building roads, parking lots,
buildings, airport runways, etc.
in the vicinity of land-based
thermometers.
(82% percent answered “yes”
to question 2. )
The authors get their fraudulent
“97% of climate scientists believe”
sound bite by focusing
on only 79 scientists out of
3,146 responses!
They kept editing the responses
until they got the "right answer".
The 79 scientists were those
who listed climate science
as their area of expertise,
and who had published
more than 50% of their
recent peer-reviewed papers
on the subject of climate change.
Most skeptics
of man-made
global warming,
including me
would answer
those two questions
the same way
as alarmists would.
Only 79 climate scientists
is hardly a representative sample
of scientific opinion.