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Wednesday, February 28, 2018

Fake Consensus Survey (C)

Anderegg et al., 2010

William R. Love Anderegg, 
then a Stanford University student, 
used Google Scholar 
to identify the views 
of the most prolific writers 
on climate change. 

He claimed to find “97% – 98% of the 
climate researchers most actively publishing 
in the field support the tenets of anthropogenic 
(man made) climate change outlined by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "

This college paper was published 
in Proceedings of the National Academy 
of Sciences, thanks to the addition 
of three academics as coauthors.

This is not a survey of scientists.

Anderegg simply counted the number 
of articles he found on the Internet, 
published in academic journals, 
by 908 scientists. 

This counting exercise falsely assumes
abstracts of papers accurately reflect 
their findings. 

Anderegg did not determine 
how many of these authors 
believe global warming is harmful, 
or that the science is sufficiently 
established to be the basis 
for public policy. 

Anderegg didn’t count as “skeptics” 
the scientists whose work 
exposes gaps in the man-made 
global warming theory, 
or contradicts claims 
that climate change 
will be catastrophic. 

Hundreds of scientists 
fall into this category, 
even though some profess 
to “believe in" global warming.

Anderegg et al. found 
the average skeptic 
has been published 
about half as frequently 
as the average alarmist 
(60 versus 119 articles). 

The 50 most prolific alarmists 
were published an average of 408 times, 
versus only 89 times for the skeptics. 

Reason:
The US government paid $64 billion 
to climate researchers during the four years 
from 2010 to 2013, virtually all 
to find a human impact on the climate, 
and virtually no dollars spent 
on examining natural causes 
of climate change.

It is also increasingly
common for academic articles 
on climate change 
to have multiple authors,
even a dozen or more,
inflating the number of times 
a researcher can claim 
to have been published.

Climate scientists 
who are skeptics 
tend to be older, 
and under much less  
pressure to publish.

What Anderegg discovered 
is a small clique 
of climate alarmists 
who had their names added 
to hundreds of articles 
published in academic journals, 
something that would have been 
considered unethical 
just a decade or two ago. 

Anderegg asserts those “top 50" 
are more credible than scientists 
who publish less often, but 
he made no effort to prove that.

Once again, no one asked
if the authors believe 
that global warming 
is a serious problem, 
or if the science 
was sufficiently established 

to be the basis for public policy.