In 2017, the US was hit by two
strong hurricanes that caused
a lot of damage.
Many people blamed them
on "climate change".
That's politics,
not real science.
not real science.
Did they bother to mention
that 2017 ended the longest period
without a major hurricane hitting
(category 3, 4 and 5)
(category 3, 4 and 5)
the 48 contiguous states ?
Why not ?
Because that fact
didn't fit their beliefs.
didn't fit their beliefs.
Below is a chart
showing the 10-year average
of US landfalling hurricanes:
Below is a chart
of the long-term
of the long-term
US hurricane trend
versus CO2 levels,
through 2008:
This blog exists,
as a public service,
with no ads, and
no money
for your editor,
because:
for your editor,
because:
Based on real science,
rather than the junk science
of climate model wild guesses,
of climate model wild guesses,
of a future climate catastrophe --
predictions that have been
very far from reality
for the past 30 years,
predictions that have been
very far from reality
for the past 30 years,
CO2 is the staff of life,
not a pollutant,
and our planet
significantly benefits
from more CO2
in the air, when
fossil fuels are burned
without excessive pollution.
and our planet
significantly benefits
from more CO2
in the air, when
fossil fuels are burned
without excessive pollution.
My home state of Michigan
had the coldest consecutive
three-week period
I have experienced
I have experienced
in my 40 years here --
the last two weeks
of December 2017
plus the first week
of January 2018.
of December 2017
plus the first week
of January 2018.
Believe it or not, some people
blamed that cold weather on
"climate change" !
So it was no surprise to me
that people blamed the 2017
fires on "climate change",
so why not blame 2018
fires on "climate change" too ?
Governor Jerry Brown and
the mainstream media
frequently blame wildfires
on climate change.
The CO2 is Evil "believers"
love to blame bad news on CO2,
and apparently they don't care
if real science supports their claims !
love to blame bad news on CO2,
and apparently they don't care
if real science supports their claims !
The charts below show
the hottest decade for the
United States was the 1930s:
In addition:
Only 2 of 50 US states
had their record
high temperature
after the year 1995
( South Dakota reached
120 degrees F. in 2006, and also
in 1936 ... and South Carolina
reached 113 degrees F. in 2012 ).
Details in a prior article:
http://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2018/07/us-number-of-really-hot-days-peaked-in.html
Details in a prior article:
http://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2018/07/us-number-of-really-hot-days-peaked-in.html
California's hottest decade
was also the 1930's,
and their hottest day ever
was July 10, 1913
and their hottest day ever
was July 10, 1913
-- 134 degrees F. at the
There were far more acres burned
in the 1930s than in the past ten
years - not even close.
Warm temperatures
encourage combustion.
The hot weather in the 1930s
contributed to the wildfire damage,
but no one seems to care
about the 1930s.
For United States' wlldfires,
formerly called forest fires,
the first six months of 2018
were not as bad as
the first six months of 2017,
according to the National
Interagency Fire Center.
2018 first half:
37,591 fires and
4,810,195 acres burned.
2017 first half:
39,227 fires and
5,639,919 acres burned.
2015 was a bad year for fires,
but the total acres burned
were less than 20%
of the 1930 record.
For the years
1957 through 1998,
the total US area burned
in a year was rarely
more than 5%
of the 1930 peak.
After 1998, area burned
did have a mild uptrend,
but no years through 2016
reached 20% of the area
burned in 1930.
Source of information in above charts:
National Interagency Fire Center
Please do not assume
that the recent decades
have had fewer acres burned
because there are fewer forests
to burn:
to burn:
The USDA Forest Service says:
“forest area has been
relatively stable since 1910”.
What’s really
causing the fires ?
causing the fires ?
Answer: People !
80% to 90% of the fires
that are burning,
and have burned,
in the United States,
were caused by PEOPLE:
Carelessness or arson,
according to the U.S.
Department of the Interior.
Those causes of fires
have nothing to do
with the harmless
+1 degree C.
of global warming
since 1880
(+/- 1 degree C.).
Wildfires can be caused
by lightning strikes,
and downed power lines,
but the vast majority
are caused by PEOPLE,
from unattended campfires,
burning debris, cigarettes,
heat / sparks from vehicles
and equipment, and
intentional arson.
Maybe we need a return
of the Smokey Bear ads:
“ Only YOU can prevent
forest fires ! ”,
so people will enjoy nature
more responsibly ?
Dry weather and drought
create more flammable fuel.
During the 1930s Dust Bowl years,
20% to 35% of the USA and Mexico,
were in extreme drought.
California has been in a drought,
on-and-off, for at least the past
one hundred years.
But even if California
summer and fall
temperatures rose and the
conditions dried further
due to global warming,
IT WOULD NOT MATTER.
The fuels for wild fires,
in the state of Californis
in summer and fall,
are already dry enough to burn
without any additional warming !
There are a large number
of papers in scientific literature
that state this fact, such as:
(Keeley and Fotheringham 2003;
Keely et al., 2004,
Abatzoglou and Kolden 2013,
Keely and Syphard 2016).
But even if California
summer and fall
temperatures rose and the
conditions dried further
due to global warming,
IT WOULD NOT MATTER.
The fuels for wild fires,
in the state of Californis
in summer and fall,
are already dry enough to burn
without any additional warming !
There are a large number
of papers in scientific literature
that state this fact, such as:
(Keeley and Fotheringham 2003;
Keely et al., 2004,
Abatzoglou and Kolden 2013,
Keely and Syphard 2016).
MODERN
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATIONS
MAKE FIRES WORSE
Environmental policies designed
Environmental policies designed
to protect forests, including the 2012
Obama regulations, are responsible
for increasing the fuel load for wildfires.
In recent times, the number of
deliberate, prescribed burns
have been severely restricted,
so they have greatly decreased.
The reason is environmental regulations.
For one example:
When there are highways, schools
and hospitals anywhere in the vicinity,
no deliberate, prescribed burns
of excessive undergrowth are allowed,
because of air-quality issues
caused by the smoke.
These limitations cause a higher
buildups of invasive undergrowth,
brush and ground litter.
A fire that would have done
modest harm fifty years ago,
now burns so hot it annihilates
everything in its path.
Perhaps an unmanaged forest
looks "natural" to hikers,
but the lack of forest management
and logging in recent decades,
has created denser forests.
Dense forests are susceptible
to intense, fast-moving fires.
MODERN
FOREST
MANAGEMENT
POLICIES
MAKE FIRES WORSE
In the early 1900s,
In the early 1900s,
land management agencies
sought to suppress all fires
quickly, in an effort
to preserve timber.
Over the decades,
those fire policies
led to more living
and dead vegetation
on the landscape,
increasing the fuel
for future fires.
Poor forest management
has led to additional fuel
for wildfires, and increased
the risk of those fires
being large.
being large.
Wildfires have always happened.
They are nature’s method
of forest management.
Whether intentionally set,
or started by lightning strikes,
it's good to know that fires
regenerates forests,
and renews the soil.
THE LARGEST FIRES
BEFORE 2018:
The largest fire,
The largest fire,
in Canadian history,
was the 1825 Miramichi Fire,
burning three million acres,
in New Brunswick,
and extending into Maine.
The 1871 Peshtigo, Wisconsin fire,
blackened 1.5 million acres,
and killed 1,500 to 2,500 people.
Tucson, Arizona had individual fires,
that burned over one million acres,
before 1890.
In 1910, three million acres burned,
in "The Big Blowup".
(aka The Great Fire of 1910).
GROWTH TRENDS
THAT MAKE FIRES WORSE
(1)
THAT MAKE FIRES WORSE
(1)
There are more people
living in the United States
to carelessly cause fires,
(2)
One-third of homes
are now built
in or near forests,
and natural areas,
something called the
Wildland-Urban Interface,
or WUI.
The USDA reported that:
“Homes located anywhere
in the WUI will eventually
be exposed to wildfire,
regardless of vegetation type
or potential for large fires.”,
and
(3)
The fuel load has increased:
Every decade
the U.S. Forest Service
conducts an inventory
of our public and private,
timber resources.
We stopped
harvesting timber
harvesting timber
on federal lands
in the late 1970s,
in the late 1970s,
but the trees
continued to grow.
continued to grow.
In 2016,
for one example,
we had 57% more
standing timber
than in 1953,
the year I was born,
according to the
U.S. Forest Service.
according to the
U.S. Forest Service.
What can you do
to protect your home?
The US Forest Service is
bursting with information
about the topic with their
FireWise program.
Here are some
of their suggestions:
Clean roofs and gutters of
dead leaves, debris
and pine needles
that could catch embers.
Replace or repair
loose or missing shingles
or roof tiles to prevent
ember penetration.
Clean debris from
exterior attic vents
and install 1/8 inch
metal mesh screening
to reduce embers.
Move any flammable material
away from wall exteriors
– mulch, flammable plants,
leaves and needles,
firewood piles, etc.
– anything that can burn.
Remove anything stored
underneath decks or porches.
From 5 to 30 feet
from the home:
from the home:
Employing careful landscaping
for creating fire breaks.
Clear vegetation from under
large stationary propane tanks.
Create fuel breaks with driveways,
walkways / paths, patios, and decks.
Keep lawns and native grasses mowed
to a height of four inches.
Remove vegetation under trees.
Tree placement should be planned
to ensure the mature canopy
is no closer than ten feet to the edge
of the structure.
From 30 to 100 feet,
out to 200 feet:
out to 200 feet:
Dispose of heavy accumulations
of ground litter / debris.
Remove dead plant and tree material.