A speech by
MIT Professor emeritus,
Richard Lindzen,
a former participant
in the UN's IPCC,
who resigned.
Atmospheric physicist
Richard Lindzen
was the Alfred P. Sloan
Professor of Meteorology
at MIT, working in
dynamic meteorology,
atmospheric tides,
ozone photochemistry,
quasi-biennial oscillation, and
the Iris hypothesis.
A summary of
his key points,
with the complex
"PhD sentences",
formatted for
easier reading
on a smart phone:
“While some
might maintain
that ignorance
of physics
does not impact
political ability,
it most certainly
impacts
the ability of
non-scientific
politicians
to deal with
nominally
science-based
issues.
The gap
in understanding
is also an invitation
to malicious
exploitation.
Given the
democratic necessity
for non-scientists
to take positions
on scientific problems,
belief and faith
inevitably replace
understanding,
through
trivially
oversimplified
false narratives
serving to reassure
the non-scientists
that they are not
totally without
scientific
‘understanding.’
‘understanding.’
The issue
of global warming
offers
numerous examples
of all of this.”
Lindzen describes
Earth’s climate system
as the circulation of
two turbulent fluids
-- the atmosphere
and the oceans.
They interact
with each other
and the land,
made turbulent
by the rotation
of the globe,
exposing
the fluids
the fluids
and the land
to uneven heating
by the sun.
These
circulations
carry heat
to and from
the surface,
so the
surface itself
is never
in equilibrium
with space.
There is never
an exact balance
between
incoming heat
from the sun
and outgoing
infrared radiation
generated by
the Earth
"cooling off".
Heat is always
being stored in,
and released
from the oceans,
from the oceans,
causing
surface
temperatures
to vary.
Air flows
interact with
uneven
topography
of the land,
playing
a major role in
regional climates.
These air-flows
generate
fluid waves
that alter climate
at distant locations.
The atmosphere
includes water
in the liquid, solid
and vapor phases.
Changes in phase
have vast impacts
on energy flows.
Quote on the
greenhouse effect:
“...that the two
most important
greenhouse
substances,
by far,
are water vapor
and clouds.
Clouds are also
important reflectors
of sunlight.
“The unit
for describing
energy flows
is watts per
square meter.
square meter.
The energy budget
of this system
involves
the absorption
and reemission
of about
200 watts
per square meter.
Doubling CO2
involves a
2% perturbation
to this budget.
(and) so do
minor changes
in clouds
and other features,
and such changes
are common ...”
"Consider
the massive
heterogeneity
and complexity
of the system,
and the variety
of mechanisms
of variability
as we consider
the current narrative
that is commonly
presented
presented
as ‘settled science.”
“Now
here is the
here is the
currently
popular narrative
popular narrative
concerning
this system:
this system:
The climate,
a complex
multifactor system,
can be summarized
in just one variable,
the globally averaged
temperature change,
and is primarily controlled
by the 1-2% perturbation
in the energy budget
due to a single variable
– carbon dioxide --
among many variables
of comparable importance.
“This is
an extraordinary
pair of claims
based on reasoning
that borders on
magical thinking.
It is, however,
the narrative
that has been
widely accepted,
even among
many skeptics."
“Many
politicians ...
politicians ...
endorse
carbon dioxide
carbon dioxide
as the
controlling variable.
controlling variable.
And although
mankind’s
CO2 contributions
are small
-- compared to
the much larger
but uncertain
natural exchanges
with both the oceans
and the biosphere --
they are confident
that they know
precisely
what policies
to implement
in order to control
CO2 levels.”
“At the heart
of this nonsense
is the failure
to distinguish
weather from climate.
Thus, global warming
refers to the welcome
increase in temperature
increase in temperature
of about +1 degree C.
since the end
of the Little Ice Age,
about 200 years ago.
On the other hand,
weather extremes
involve temperature
changes
changes
of the order
of 20 degrees C.
Such large changes
have a profoundly
different origin
from global warming.
Crudely speaking,
they result from
winds carrying
warm and cold air,
from distant regions
that are very warm
or very cold.
These winds
are in the form
of waves.
The strength
of these waves
depends on
the temperature
the temperature
difference
between the tropics
and the Arctic
(with larger differences
leading to stronger waves).
Now, the models
used to project
global warming
all predict this
temperature
difference
difference
will decrease,
rather than
increase.
increase.
Thus,
the increase
the increase
in temperature
extremes
extremes
would best
support
support
the idea of
global cooling,
rather than
global warming.
However,
scientifically
illiterate people
seem incapable
of distinguishing
global warming
of climate
from
temperature
from
temperature
extremes
due to weather.
... there doesn’t
really seem to be
really seem to be
any discernible trend
in weather extremes.”
Lindzen concludes:
“None of the
proposed policies
proposed policies
will have much impact
on greenhouse gases.
Thus we will
continue to benefit
from the one thing
that can be
clearly attributed
to elevated
carbon dioxide:
namely,
its effective role
as a plant fertilizer,
and reducer of
the drought
vulnerability
of plants.
Meanwhile,
the IPCC
is claiming
that we
need to
prevent another
+0.5 degrees C.
of warming,
although
the +1 degree C.
that has occurred
so far, has been
accompanied by
the greatest increase
in human welfare
in history.
As we used to say
in my childhood home
of the Bronx (NYC):
‘Go figure’”
Your Editor
needs to add:
needs to add:
The UN's IPCC
claims its process
is real science
... but that does not
make it real science.
It is actually
"political junk science",
which is the ise of
'climate astrology'
to make false predictions
of doom to scare people,
which makes them
much more likely to
accept increased
government power
to 'manage'
the economy,
( AND SAVE THE PLANET,
WHICH DOESN'T NEED SAVING ! )
better known
as socialism.
the economy,
( AND SAVE THE PLANET,
WHICH DOESN'T NEED SAVING ! )
better known
as socialism.
Modern "climate science"
is 99% politics,
and 1% real science.