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Thursday, October 18, 2018

Professor Richard Lindzen, Phd. -- A summary of his lecture at GWPF

A speech by 
MIT Professor emeritus, 
Richard Lindzen, 
a former participant 
in the UN's IPCC, 
who resigned. 

Atmospheric physicist 
Richard Lindzen 
was the Alfred P. Sloan 
Professor of Meteorology 
at MIT, working in 
dynamic meteorology, 
atmospheric tides, 
ozone photochemistry, 
quasi-biennial oscillation, and 
the Iris hypothesis. 


A summary of
his key points,
with the complex
"PhD sentences",
formatted for 
easier reading
on a smart phone:

“While some 
might maintain 
that ignorance 
of physics 
does not impact 
political ability, 
it most certainly 
impacts 
the ability of
non-scientific 
politicians 
to deal with 
nominally 
science-based 
issues. 


The gap 
in understanding 
is also an invitation 
to malicious 
exploitation. 


Given the 
democratic necessity 
for non-scientists 
to take positions 
on scientific problems, 
belief and faith 
inevitably replace 
understanding, 
through 
trivially 
oversimplified 
false narratives 
serving to reassure 
the non-scientists 
that they are not 
totally without 
scientific 
‘understanding.’ 

The issue 
of global warming 
offers 
numerous examples 
of all of this.”



Lindzen describes 
Earth’s climate system 
as the circulation of 
two turbulent fluids 
-- the atmosphere 
and the oceans.

They interact 
with each other
and the land, 
made turbulent 
by the rotation 
of the globe,
exposing 
the fluids 
and the land 
to uneven heating 
by the sun. 

These 
circulations 
carry heat 
to and from 
the surface, 
so the 
surface itself 
is never 
in equilibrium 
with space. 

There is never 
an exact balance 
between 
incoming heat 
from the sun 
and outgoing
infrared radiation 
generated by 
the Earth
"cooling off". 

Heat is always
being stored in, 
and released 
from the oceans, 
causing 
surface 
temperatures
to vary. 



Air flows 
interact with 
uneven 
topography 
of the land, 
playing 
a major role in
regional climates. 

These air-flows 
generate 
fluid waves 
that alter climate 
at distant locations. 



The atmosphere
includes water 
in the liquid, solid 
and vapor phases.

Changes in phase 
have vast impacts 
on energy flows. 



Quote on the
greenhouse effect:
“...that the two 
most important 
greenhouse 
substances, 
by far, 
are water vapor 
and clouds. 

Clouds are also 
important reflectors 
of sunlight.

“The unit 
for describing 
energy flows 
is watts per 
square meter. 

The energy budget 
of this system 
involves 
the absorption 
and reemission
of about 
200 watts 
per square meter. 

Doubling CO2 
involves a 
2% perturbation 
to this budget. 

(and) so do 
minor changes 
in clouds 
and other features, 
and such changes 
are common ...” 

"Consider 
the massive 
heterogeneity 
and complexity 
of the system, 
and the variety 
of mechanisms 
of variability 
as we consider 
the current narrative 
that is commonly 
presented 
as ‘settled science.”

“Now 
here is the 
currently 
popular narrative 
concerning 
this system: 

The climate, 
a complex 
multifactor system, 
can be summarized 
in just one variable, 
the globally averaged 
temperature change, 
and is primarily controlled 
by the 1-2% perturbation 
in the energy budget 
due to a single variable 
– carbon dioxide -- 
among many variables 
of comparable importance.

“This is 
an extraordinary 
pair of claims 
based on reasoning 
that borders on 
magical thinking. 

It is, however, 
the narrative 
that has been 
widely accepted, 
even among 
many skeptics."

“Many 
politicians ...
endorse 
carbon dioxide 
as the 
controlling variable. 

And although 
mankind’s 
CO2 contributions 
are small 
-- compared to 
the much larger 
but uncertain 
natural exchanges 
with both the oceans 
and the biosphere -- 
they are confident 
that they know 
precisely 
what policies 
to implement 
in order to control 
CO2 levels.” 




“At the heart 
of this nonsense 
is the failure 
to distinguish 
weather from climate. 

Thus, global warming 
refers to the welcome 
increase in temperature 
of about +1 degree C.
since the end 
of the Little Ice Age, 
about 200 years ago. 

On the other hand, 
weather extremes 
involve temperature 
changes 
of the order 
of 20 degrees C. 

Such large changes 
have a profoundly 
different origin 
from global warming. 

Crudely speaking, 
they result from 
winds carrying 
warm and cold air, 
from distant regions 
that are very warm 
or very cold. 

These winds 
are in the form 
of waves. 

The strength 
of these waves 
depends on 
the temperature 
difference 
between the tropics 
and the Arctic 
(with larger differences 
leading to stronger waves). 

Now, the models 
used to project 
global warming 
all predict this
temperature 
difference 
will decrease, 
rather than 
increase. 

Thus, 
the increase 
in temperature 
extremes 
would best 
support 
the idea of 
global cooling, 
rather than 
global warming. 

However, 
scientifically 
illiterate people 
seem incapable 
of distinguishing 
global warming 
of climate 
from 
temperature 
extremes 
due to weather. 

... there doesn’t 
really seem to be 
any discernible trend 
in weather extremes.”



Lindzen concludes:
“None of the 
proposed policies 
will have much impact 
on greenhouse gases. 

Thus we will 
continue to benefit 
from the one thing 
that can be 
clearly attributed 
to elevated 
carbon dioxide: 
namely, 
its effective role 
as a plant fertilizer, 
and reducer of 
the drought 
vulnerability 
of plants. 

Meanwhile, 
the IPCC 
is claiming 
that we 
need to 
prevent another 
+0.5 degrees C.
of warming, 
although 
the +1 degree C.
that has occurred 
so far, has been 
accompanied by 
the greatest increase 
in human welfare 
in history. 

As we used to say 
in my childhood home 
of the Bronx (NYC): 
‘Go figure’”




Your Editor 
needs to add:
The UN's IPCC 
claims its process
is real science
... but that does not 
make it real science.

It is actually 
"political junk science",
which is the ise of 
'climate astrology'
to make false predictions 
of doom to scare people,
which makes them
much more likely to 
accept increased 
government power
to 'manage' 
the economy,
( AND SAVE THE PLANET,
WHICH DOESN'T NEED SAVING  ! )
better known
as socialism.


Modern "climate science"
is 99% politics,
and 1% real science.