Scientific
understanding
understanding
of climate change
is weak.
is weak.
You'd never know that
from the ultra-high
confidence levels
( "the science is settled" )
among leftist politicians,
and the bureaucrats
with science degrees
that they hire ...
... but, in fact,
their climate science
is surprisingly weak,
and their ability
to predict the
future climate,
does not exist !
Climate change is
secular religion,
with a similarity
to other religions:
Similar
predictions
of doom,
predictions
of doom,
unless
you do
as the
you do
as the
leaders say,
without
question.
question.
As an atheist, since
I was old enough
to understand
what the word meant,
I see scary predictions
as a centuries-old method
to control people,
first used by
conventional religions,
and than adapted by
the climate change "religion".
One group might say:
'follow our rules, or
you will go to hell',
while the
other group
might say:
'follow our rules,
or Earth
will become hell'.
It's all nonsense to me,
like almost all predictions
of the future.
After 21 years of
reading about
climate science,
as a hobby
( reading I have
summarized on this blog,
as a public service,
for the past few years ),
I am still as stunned
as I was
in the first week
of reading about
"global warming",
by how little real science
supports the climate
change predictions.
Which explains why
the predictions
have been wrong
for the past
three decades !
The past 30 years
of very wrong
computer model
average temperature
forecasts
-- typically predicting
triple the global warming
that actually happened !
In their misguided effort
to blame climate change
on humans, the
bureaucrats have
simply declared, with
no scientific proof,
that one variable
( man made CO2 )
is the 'control knob' for
average temperature,
meaning
the bureaucrats
the bureaucrats
have ignored all
4.5 billion years
of natural
climate change,
that had nothing to do
with man made CO2 !
And the bureaucrats
simply dismiss the sun,
as not important.
In fact, our sun
is a steady source
is a steady source
of light and heat,
compared with
other stars.
other stars.
But its output does vary.
Solar light, heat,
and particle streams
affect weather and
atmospheric chemistry
in some way.
How the Sun’s
variability affects
Earth's climate,
and how much?
No one knows.
How does Earth’s
temperature change
as it receives
more or less heat
from the Sun?
No one knows.
How do streams
of ionized particles,
that make up
the solar wind,
affect certain
weather patterns
on Earth?
No one knows.
Dark sunspots cause
a small decrease in
irradiance in the
visible band, but they
increase irradiance
in the ultraviolet bands.
Scientists wonder
how solar activity
across wavelengths
influences climate.
In recent years,
a series of initiatives
brought together
scientists working on
different aspects
of this issue.
Three of these initiatives were:
(1) TOSCA:
“Towards a more
complete assessment
of the impact
of solar variability
on the Earth’s climate”.
TOSCA used a network
of European scientists
from 20 countries,
from 2011 to 2015,
to assess contributions
of solar variability
to Earth’s climate.
(2) SOLID:
Solar Irradiance
Data Exploitation,
or SOLID, is a
European-funded
project, dedicated to
merging all exploitable
spectrally resolved
solar irradiance records
into one single composite
data set.
(3) ISSI:
An international team
of scientists that met
at the International
Space Science Institute (ISSI)
to produce a comprehensive
data set that includes
solar radiative forcing
and contributions from
energetic particles.
These initiatives
produced
two public data sets
to assist with the
scientific analysis
of solar energy:
(1)
A composite data set
of all irradiance observations,
and
(2)
A comprehensive data set
containing different ]
solar forcings since 1950
(radiative, and by particles).
Careful
statistical
analysis
is required
to extract
the climate effect
of solar variability
from a noisy
background.
Such analyses
require records
that extend over
a long period of time.
But scientists
have only been making
direct measurements
( from satellites in space )
of the total solar radiative
input to Earth’s atmosphere,
since 1978.
Solar radiation
represents
more than 99.9%
of the energy
entering Earth’s
climate system.
Another source of variability
comes from energetic particles,
some of which originate
from the Sun.
The most energetic particles,
known as galactic cosmic rays,
have an extragalactic origin;
their role in cloud formation
has attracted some attention
in recent decades.
But recent experiments,
at the European Organization
for Nuclear Research (CERN),
suggest these cosmic rays
have a limited impact
on cloud formation.
Energetic protons,
produced during
solar flares, and
energetic electrons
that originate from
the Earth’s
magnetosphere,
received
much less attention,
yet they may
contribute to ozone loss
in the polar atmosphere
Andersson, M. E., et al. (2014),
Missing driver in the
Sun–Earth connection
from energetic electron
precipitation impacts
mesospheric ozone,
Nat. Commun., 5, 5197,
Such ozone depletion
primarily affects
the upper layer
of the atmosphere,
( at 60–80 kilometers )
but that layer
eventually affects
the lower layers,
and the climate, too.
Auroras
are produced by
energetic electrons,
that penetrate into
Earth’s atmosphere,
after a perturbation
of the solar wind.
Solar variability
drives auroras,
as well as variations
of UV (ultraviolet)
radiation.
Radiation in
the UV wavelength
affects climate
through direct heating,
and the production
and destruction of ozone
in the stratosphere,
which then leads
to minor
regional effects
at Earth’s surface.
For many years,
scientists used
a single quantity,
total solar irradiance
(TSI),
-- the total solar
radiated power
reaching Earth’s
upper atmosphere.
TSI integrates
all spectral bands
( UV, visible, and infrared )
into one single quantity.
Spectrally resolved
solar irradiance (SSI)
is different, because
it reveals variations
at specific wavelengths,
each of which
affects Earth
in a different way.
SSI measurements
must be made in space
to capture radiation
that would be
partly absorbed
by the atmosphere.
The satellite-mounted
instruments degrade
in the
harsh environment,
leaving researchers
with large
data uncertainties.
And on the few occasions
when several instruments
measured SSI simultaneously,
their observations disagreed.
TOSCA produced
a handbook
that summarizes
our present understanding
of the different processes
by which solar variability
may affect climate.
Lilensten, J., T. Dudok de Wit,
and K. Matthes (Eds.) (2016),
Earth’s Climate Response
to a Changing Sun,
EDP Sci., Paris,
Scientists also produced
a data set through SOLID,
merging all exploitable
SSI records
into one single
composite data set.
This merged data set
was recently made public,
covering the period
since 1978, including data
for the UV, visible,
and near-infrared bands.
Haberreiter, M., et al. (2017),
A new observational
solar irradiance composite,
J. Geophys. Res.,
122, 5,910–5,930,
Solar energy proxies,
such as sunspot counts,
and cosmogenic isotopes
such as carbon-14,
have to be used
for the pre-satellite era.
But scientists need
a record of real time
satellite measurements
for a period longer than
the past few decades,
before reaching
any conclusions.
The effect of the sun
on Earth's climate
is just like the rest of
climate science,
where the right answer
to most questions,
especially predictions
of the future climate, is:
"We don't know."
The leftists who say
"the science is settled",
are liars, and fools.
They are liars
to scare people
into thinking humans
are ruining the planet,
and only voting
for Dumbocrats
can save them.
They are also fools,
because real science
is NEVER settled.