Why the IPCC climate models are wrong -- predicting an average of triple the warming that actually happened in the past 30 years !

Note:
This article excludes one 
Russian climate model 
that does not over-predict
global warming, obviously
working in collusion 
with Donald Trump, 
so it can't be trusted !


Claims of dangerous 

greenhouse gas-caused 

global warming, 

are based on 

meaningless 

computer games -- 

-- "climate models"

that have made 

very wrong predictions

of the average temperature,

for three decades.

In real science, 

the 'IPCC climate models' 

would be falsified by 

their far off the mark 

average temperature

predictions.

But in modern 

climate "science",

it seems nothing

that is claimed 

can ever be falsified,

just like religious beliefs.

So, never mind 

the wrong predictions

for three decades, 

the IPCC will stick with

their wild guess number 

for how much 

global warming 

is caused by CO2,

that was first publicized

in the 1979 Charney Report,

... and never changed.

That number matches

the results of almost all 

of the climate models,

which are obviously 

programmed to get 

that "preferred",

but wrong, answer 

= a doubling of CO2 

in the atmosphere

will increase the

average temperature

by about +3 degrees C.

But, in reality, 

if we assume that

all the warming

since 1950 

was caused by CO2

( with no scientific proof 

that ANY of the warming 

was caused by CO2 )  

the warming rate 

has only been ...

... +1 degree C. 

per CO2 doubling,

... not +3 degrees C.

per CO2 doubling,

...so its no surprise

the climate model 

predictions 

have averaged 

triple the warming

that actually happened ! 

The IPCC treatment 

of water vapor, 

is as a feedback 

that triples the warming 

allegedly caused 

by carbon dioxide alone. 

There is no evidence

that theory is correct.

But water vapor 

is the dominant 

greenhouse gas 

-- water vapor and clouds 

account for up to 90% 

of the greenhouse gas 

effect. 

Water vapor is natural, 

and constantly changing, 

both regionally 

and seasonally. 

Water vapor 

is a natural cause 

of greenhouse gas 

warming 

not a "feedback".

Naturally occurring 

water vapor 

also reduces the 

greenhouse warming 

potential of other gases, 

especially methane 

and nitrous oxide.

With greenhouse gases, 

the actual 

greenhouse effect 

is a slowing 

of Earth's cooling

( cooling by 

infrared heat from 

Earth's surface 

radiating upwards

toward space ... 

but the cooling rate 

is disrupted by

greenhouse gases).

CO2 mainly affects 

surface temperatures 

at night, although 

the reason for that

is still being debated***

( nights not 

cooling off

as much as they 

otherwise would,

before dawn,

is described as 

"global warming",

which misleads 

many people

about what is

really happening ).


*** The strongest reason,
in my opinion, at the link below,
why the greenhouse 
gas warming 
of surface temperatures,
is measured mainly at night:
https://elonionbloggle.blogspot.com/2018/07/global-warming-mainly-at-night-why.html

The ‘greenhouse effect’ 

is attributed to gases 

that absorb and re-emit 

up going infrared energy,

in the 3 to 70-micron 

wavelength range,

where greenhouse 

gases have some effect.

But the cooling Earth 

emits very little 

infrared energy 

in the wavelengths 

that both methane CH4 

and nitrous oxide N2O 

can absorb.

The final cooling step, 

heat emission into space,

is infrared radiation 

leaving the 

upper troposphere 

and stratosphere.

The solar radiation 

coming down from the sun, 

is in the ultraviolet

and visible light wavelengths.

Clouds and water vapor

block some of the 

incoming solar energy. 

Greenhouse gases of

CO2 ( carbon dioxide ), 

CH4 ( methane ), and 

N2O ( nitrous oxide ), 

have almost no effect 

on incoming sunlight.

By ignoring 

water vapor 

as the primary 

greenhouse gas, 

the IPCC ignores 

the practical fact 

that water vapor 

severely limits 

the ability of methane (CH4)

and nitrous oxide (N2O)

to absorb outgoing radiation

as Earth cools,

severely limiting their 

greenhouse gas effect. 

The greenhouse effect

of both CH4 and N2O, 

are vastly overstated 

by the IPCC, 

The logarithmic relationship 

between atmospheric 

carbon dioxide (CO2)

concentrations and

average temperatures 

is based on the MODTRAN 

atmospheric model 

at the University of Chicago. 

Even with CO2 at the low

pre-industrial level 

( under 300 ppmv, 

or parts per million, by volume ) 

the influence of adding CO2 

to the atmosphere,

was already small.

And even smaller effect

starting at today's

CO2 atmospheric level 

of about 400 ppmv.

CO2 accounts 

for no more than 

10% to 20% of all

greenhouse warming,

and probably a lot less,

with water vapor 

and clouds

accounting for 

at least 80% to 90%, 

and probably a lot more.

The effects of 

CH4 and N2O 

are trivial. 

Reliable models 

for the effects of 

greenhouse gases 

can not exist

without a 
reliable model 

for the effects 

of water vapor,

which does not exist.

Earth's CO2 levels 

had been 

much higher than now, 

in most of the past 

4.5 billion years. 

There were no

climate "tipping points",

with runaway warming,

ending life on our planet.

There was no known

ocean acidification problem.

We know that because

corals flourished, 

leaving extensive 
fossil reefs 

for us to study.

The bad news back then

was giant meteor strikes, 

and massive 

volcanic eruptions 

that probably released 

carbon dioxide CO2, 

methane CH4,

nitrous oxide SO2, 

and other gases, 

that affected the oceans 

and atmosphere.

But evolution continued.

The only undisputed effect 

of adding CO2 to the air

over the past century, 

has been a 'greening' 

of the Earth.

And, of course,

that's good news !

Unfortunately,

modern climate "science"

consists of lots of 

government bureaucrats,

with science degrees, 

stating with great confidence,

for three decades so far, that

"we know the future climate", 

even as their very wrong

computer game predictions

prove they have no idea

what the future climate will be !

However, 

the bureaucrats 

know they will have 

permanent job security, 

to play computer games 

for a living,

as long as 

the politicians 

who hired them,

continue to claim 

a climate disaster 

is coming.

And that's why 

modern 
climate "science"

is junk science ... 

with the annual, scary, 

wrong climate predictions,

repeated year after year ... 

followed by the false claim

from leftist politicians,

that only a 
powerful government 

( which they've always wanted )

'can save the Earth 

for the children' !

It's self-serving 

junk science,

for money and power.