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Sunday, November 25, 2018

California's Deadly Camp Fire - facts and real science

The Camp Fire that leveled 
the northern California town 
of Paradise, was an 
environmental disaster.  

A major community 
was destroyed, 
and millions of people 
were exposed 
to toxic smoke.  

Smarmy politicians, 
environmental 
advocacy groups, 
and activist scientists,
made the false claim 
that the Camp Fire 
was the result 
of global warming.

Blaming global warming 
takes attention away 
from the actions needed 
in "forest management".

A major factor 
was strong, 
offshore-directed, 
winds 
that started the fire,
most likely by 
knocking down 
electric wires, 
and drove it
towards Paradise.   

These 
"Diablo winds" 
are driven by 
the pressure 
difference
between 
the mountains 
and the coast.

The winds from the east
that struck that day 
were not unusual,
according to the
nearby Jarbo Gap USDA 
weather station.  

The sustained winds 
on the day the 
Camp Fire started
      (November 8)
were 32 mph, 
with gusts to 52 mph.

Winds peaked 
at 4 AM that day.   

The Jarbo Gap record
goes back to 2003.

Northeasterly winds 
of 30 mph or more 
occurred 508 times 
in those 15 years
-- not an unusual event.  

There is no reason 
to expect Diablo winds 
will increase 
with global warming.

In fact, 
the opposite is true.  

Global warming 
actually warms 
the land more than 
the oceans.

Man made warming 
would tend to weaken 
the interior (land)
high pressure,
reducing a key 
driving force 
of the Diablo winds.   

There are 
peer-reviewed 
studies in the 
scientific literature  
that show 
global warming 
should weaken 
southern California's 
Santa Ana winds, 
which are also driven 
by the 
pressure difference 
between the 
western interior (land)
and the coast (ocean).

Camp Fire was 
most likely caused 
by downed  
PG&E power lines, 
not by any
natural causes, 
that could be blamed 
on global warming.  

Nearly all wildfires 
in California 
are caused 
by human error, 
or arson. 

Some people claim 
global warming 
is causing 
increasing droughts,
that dries fuels 
and encourages fires.

In  fact,
global warming 
had little or no role 
in producing 
the dry conditions 
that assisted 
the Camp Fire, 
the wine country fires
last year, or the fires 
in coastal southern CA.

California 
is very dry 
nearly half 
of the year,
when fuels 
such as 
grasses, 
bushes 
and small 
vegetation 
dry out 
( during any
typical summer ).   

The specific fires 
mentioned above,
were associated 
with offshore, 
downslope winds 
which rapidly 
dry out vegetation, 
even if wet 
the day before!

In much of California, 
especially the areas 
of those specific fires, 
most of the fuels 
were grasses 
and small stuff,
that dry very quickly, 
from Diablo winds.  

Those small diameter fuels 
are known as "chaparral", 
and there was a lot of 
chaparral north and east 
of Paradise.


Even in the middle of the winter, 
when rain is falling occasionally,
there are short dry periods, 
because the Diablo winds 
can dry out the vegetation.

The vegetation is 
always dry enough 
to burn, during 
every "fire season".

Whether 
global warming 
is increasing 
temperatures 
a few degrees, 
or not,
does not matter.

August to October 
precipitation 
is typically light 
      (about 2 inches), 
with lots of variation 
from year to year.  

Many prior years 
were as dry, 
or drier than, 
2018. 

Some people 
talk about 
tree deaths, 
and bark beetles, 
claiming that 
global warming 
is killing trees, 
leading to fires.   

The Camp Fire area
was NOT known 
for tree deaths,
and most of the fire 
was on dry 
chaparral vegetation.  

The fire spread 
over a region 
that had been logged, 
previously burned, 
and was mainly 
dry grass and 
small shrubs
= ready for a fire !   

There was 
a huge influx 
of people 
moving into
a wild land area, 
that burned 
many times 
in the past.  

Flammable, 
non-native 
invasive grasses 
had spread 
through the region. 

Homes were not built 
to withstand fire, 
and roadways 
were inadequate 
for evacuation. 

Power lines 
were not 
de-energized 
even though 
strong winds 
were forecast.   

The list 
of real problems 
is a long list   

Global warming 
should not be 
on the list 
of real problems.