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Sunday, December 9, 2018

General Circulation Models = The Computer Games of Climate Junk Science

General circulation 
computer models (GCMs) 
do not accurately depict 
complex 
climate processes, 
and can't hind-cast 
( or forecast ) 
the effects of 
human-related
greenhouse gas 
emissions 
on the climate.

To make 
climate predictions,
the UN's IPCC 
relies entirely 
on those inaccurate
computer models (GCMs). 

Relatively few people 
in the climate science 
community, 
are experts in 
building and operating 
such models, 
so the rest 
of the community 
accepts their outputs 
on faith. 

The outputs of models
are nothing more than 
a statement of how 
the modeler believes 
a part of the world works
= a personal opinion !

Modelers assume
a CO2 increase 
must cause 
a significant 
temperature increase, 
so they program 
that assumption
into their models. 

When asked 
how they KNOW
this happens, 
they have 
no answer !




Dr. Freeman Dyson, 
professor of physics 
at the Institute 
for Advanced Study 
at Princeton University 
and one of the world’s 
most eminent physicists, 
said the models, 
used to justify 
global warming alarmism, 
are “full of fudge factors”. 

"The models 
solve the equations 
of fluid dynamics, 
and they do 
a very good job 
of describing 
the fluid motions 
of the atmosphere 
and the oceans. 

They do a very poor job 
of describing the clouds, 
the dust, the chemistry, 
and the biology of fields 
and farms and forests. 

They do not begin 
to describe 
the real world 
that we live in.”



Dr. Antonino Zichichi, 
emeritus professor of physics 
at the University of Bologna, 
and former president of the 
European Physical Society, 
said global warming models 
are “incoherent and invalid.”




Christy (2017) 
performed a test of 
102 climate model runs 
conducted by GCMs 
in the Coupled Model 
Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), 
an international collaboration 
that provides GCMs 
to the IPCC, and to
national governments.

Almost all models 
predicted 
double to triple 
the warming
that satellite and 
weather balloons 
later measured. 

With such poor hind-casts,
why would anyone believe 
what today's climate models 
predict about earth’s 
future climate?




Of the 102 model runs 
considered by 
Christy and McKitrick, 
only one came close 
to accurately hind-casting 
temperatures since 1979: 
  The INM-CM4 model 
produced by
the Institute of 
Numerical Mathematics 
of the Russian Academy 
of Sciences. 

That model 
happens to predict
only +1.4°C warming 
by the end of the 
( 21st) century, 
a warming 
only one-third 
as much as the 
IPCC predicts. 

INM-CM4 had the lowest 
CO2 forcing response 
at 4.1K for 4xCO2. 

That is 37% lower than
the multi-model average.

INM-CM4 also had,
by far, the highest 
climate system inertia: 
 ( Deep ocean heat capacity ).

INM-CM4 also 
exactly matched 
observed atmospheric 
water vapor content
in the lower troposphere 
(215 hPa), 
and was biased low 
above that altitude. 

Most others models 
were biased high.


But when only one 
out of dozens of
climate models
seems to be "right",
I strongly suspect
that correct "prediction"
iwas just a coincidence 
-- a "lucky guess" --
not based on 
any great knowledge 
of climate change,
unknown to all other
modelers.

The outputs of GCMs 
are only as reliable 
as the data 
and theories 
“fed” into them, 
which scientists 
widely recognize 
as being flawed.




The real purpose 
of GCMs, 
in my opinion, 
is to present 
a scary prediction
of the 
future climate,
that seems like 
real science,
to laymen.

GCMs are 
nothing more than
complex props, 
in a political
power game,
designed to 
tell the world
exactly what
leftist politicians
want them to hear !