a little more complicated
than most articles here,
and I apologize in advance
if there is any confusion,
because that would be my fault !
The forcing-feedback
model of climate (FFM)
is a model for estimating
the Earth’s sensitivity to CO2.
The idea that
“it’s basic physics” ,
makes the FFM,
and the CO2
greenhouse theory,
into a "fact",
to people with
closed minds.
The CO2 is Evil Cult
are so convinced
by the FFM model,
that it overrides
contrary evidence,
in their weak minds.
The Charney Report of 1979
is the document that started
the current false hysteria
about carbon dioxide.
The FFM is the foundation of
modern climate "science",
although it does not have
a formal name,
and the "science"
is wrong !
There is no
empirical evidence
that rising levels
of carbon dioxide,
will increase the
average temperature
of our planet's surface
as fast as the UN's IPCC
( Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change )
has been predicting
since 1988.
IPCC predictions
are entirely based
on computer models,
whose predictions
seem to match
the climate sensitivity
to CO2 first guessed
( and never revised )
in the 1979
Charney Report.
The water vapor
emissions layer (WVEL)
plays an important role
in climate.
The WVEL
is the top band
of water vapor,
as seen from space
-- water molecules
that can emit outgoing
infrared heat into space,
cooling off our planet.
The WVEL is usually
in the upper troposphere,
but it moves up and down
as water vapor moves
within the atmosphere.
On average, the WVEL
it in the upper troposphere.
Its average height
is ~8 km (5 miles),
though in the tropics,
it is ~10 km (6 miles)
The air
above the WVEL
is dry,
but the air
below the WVEL
is moist.
If the WVEL rises,
it creates the hotspot,
which is the warming
of a volume of air
that was previously
dry and cool
when it was
just above
the WVEL,
( but becomes
moist and warmer
as the WVEL rises
above it ).
The “hotspot” is
the informal name
for a warming
of the upper
troposphere,
in the tropics.
Surface warming
causes more evaporation
(70% of the surface is ocean),
and the
greater volume
of water vapor
in the atmosphere,
is assumed
to push up
the WVEL.
“Water vapor
amplification”
is a theory that
any surface warming
is amplified (tripled)
by the rise
of the WVEL,
creating
a "hotspot".
In the FFM model,
surface warming
causes:
the WVEL to rise,
water vapor amplification,
and a "hotspot".
But in reality,
the WVEL
has not moved higher
in the past few decades !
The only instruments
that accurately measure
the change in height
of the WVEL ,
over the last few decades,
are weather balloon
radiosondes.
From 1979 to 1999,
the primary period
of global warming
after World War II,
the atmosphere
at the WVEL height
of ~8 km, warmed by
~0.12 °C per decade
due to very similar
surface warming.
CO2 is Evil
supporters
ignore, or dispute,
the radiosonde data,
and substitute
vague satellite data,
even though satellites,
due to inadequate
vertical resolution,
are the wrong tool
for the job.
Based on actual
radiosonde
measurements,
increasing CO2
in the atmosphere,
did not cause
the WVEL to rise !
Climate models
apply the
water vapor
amplification
positive feedback
to CO2, and predict
a rising WVEL.
and a hotspot.
That means all the
Climate Models,
are wrong --
of course we
already knew that,
because they
have predicted
triple the
global warming
that happened
since 1950 !
Given a
non-rising WVEL,
and the
grossly excessive
global warming
predictions,
it's very obvious
that the water vapor
amplification theory
is wrong.
Which means
the warming effect
of CO2 is no more than
one-third ( i.e.; harmless )***
of what has
been predicted
since the 1979
Charney Report.
*** Which means a
Transient Climate
Sensitivity ( TCS )
+1.0 degrees C.,
or less,
causing harmless
global warming
per CO2 doubling
( +1 degree C. of
global warming
in the next 200,
or more, years )