Warming before 1940
accounts for
over two-thirds
of the total warming
after the
"Little Ice Age"
"Little Ice Age"
ended in 1850.
However,
only 15%
of all man made CO2
emitted so far,
had been emitted
before 1940.
Think about that.
Data quality note:
Temperature measurements
before 1950
include far too few
before 1950
include far too few
measurements made in
the Southern Hemisphere.
So the "global average"
is mainly based on
Northern Hemisphere data,
combined with a lot of
wild guesses about
Southern Hemisphere
temperatures.
Early 20th century
global warming
is claimed to be
about two-thirds
as large as
late 20th century
global warming.
Prof. Phil Jones,
former head of the
Hadley Climate
Research Unit
of the UK MetOffice,
recognized
in a BBC interview
that the early
20th century
global warming
was statistically
indistinguishable
from late 20th century
global warming:
“As for the two periods 1910-40
and 1975-1998, the warming rates
are not statistically significantly different”.
The causes of the
early 20th century
global warming
are unknown,
just like the causes
of the post-1950
global warming !
Most likely causes
of global warming
are some combination
of natural factors,
economic growth
near land thermometers,
increased air pollution
( cooling, by blocking sunlight ), and
some amount
of greenhouse gases
( warming, from more CO2 and methane ) .
Highlights of the early
20th century warming:
-- Arctic warming
in the 1920s and 1930s,
very unlikely to have had
man made causes.
-- “Dust Bowl” droughts
and extreme heat waves
in North America
in the 1930s.
-- A World War II period
drought in Australia,
between 1937 and 1945.
-- European droughts,
and heat waves,
in the of late 1940s
and early 1950s.
In 1910,
the atmospheric
CO2 concentration
has been estimated
at 300 ppm
( parts per million ),
based on Antarctica
ice core studies.
In 1950
the CO2 level
was estimated
to be about 311 ppm.
In 2018
the CO2 level
was measured
at 408 ppm.
So, the warming
during the period
from 1910-1945
was associated with
a CO2 increase
of less than +10 ppm
( only a +3.3% CO2 increase ) ?
If so, then CO2
is an VERY powerful
greenhouse gas!
But ...
the global warming
from 1950 to 2018,
about 50% more
than the earlier
warming period,
was accompanied
by a CO2 increase
of +97ppm, which is
almost ten times larger !
( a +31% CO2 increase )
If CO2 really controlled
the average temperature,
then why would
50% more global warming,
in the second half
of the 20th century,
require a ten times larger
CO2 increase,
compared with
the global warming
compared with
the global warming
period in the first half
of the 20th century?
of the 20th century?
Those numbers
makes no sense,
if CO2 levels
really 'controlled'
the average
temperature
of our planet !
So, there were obviously
other causal factors
of global warming,
besides CO2 emissions !
But the exact contribution
of each possible cause,
to the actual global warming,
remains unknown.
With real science,
many things
are unknown.
With junk science,
everything is "known",
with great "confidence",
even the climate
one hundred years
in the future !
The smarmy, lying
climate alarmists
claim global warming
in the second half of
the 20th century
was "unprecedented".
So,
they declare
the only "possible"
cause must have been
the +31% CO2 increase!
Meanwhile,
they ignore
global warming
in the first half of the
20th century,
which was 2/3 as large,
but accompanied by
only a small +3%
CO2 increase !
That doesn't add up,
because junk science
never does !
Much more effort
is needed to understand
the pre-1950 global warming,
and also the global cooling
period from 1945-1975
( global cooling, even as
atmospheric CO2 rose a lot ! )
Two interesting observations:
-- In the early 20th century
global warming period,
land surface warming
and sea surface warming
were claimed to be
about the same.
-- But in the late 20th century
global warming period,
land surface warming was
much greater than
sea surface warming.
Perhaps the cause
of the discrepancy,
was a problem
with data quality ?
The late 2015 - early 2016
El Nino Pacific Ocean
heat release,
like all El Nino's,
was a temporary,
local warming event,
that was so intense,
it significantly raised
the global average
temperature.
El Nino's cause
"global warming",
but have nothing to do
with carbon dioxide.
That 2015 / 2016 El Nino
was very similar
to the 1998 El Nino.
With the exception
of that temporary
2015 / 2016 El Nino,
there has been NO
statistically significant
global warming
in the 21st century,
through 2018,
in spite of
a large increase
in atmospheric CO2
( Mauna Loa Keeling curve ).
In 1958,
CO2 emissions
were about 9,
in 2000 about 25,
and in 2018,
about 37 Gt/year.
The 21st century, so far,
includes over 40%
of the total increase
of CO2 emissions
since 1958.
But the
average temperature,
average temperature,
since 2003,
has been in
a flat trend !
Why ?
has been in
a flat trend !
Why ?
The only logical conclusion,
from actual temperature
observations, is the
average temperature
'control knob', can NOT be
honestly attributed
to CO2 levels in the air.
Apocalyptic future
climate scenarios
are fairy tales
based on guesses
about how climate
changes on our planet.