14.2.2
Predictability
in a Chaotic System
"The climate system
is particularly challenging
since it is known that
components in the system
are inherently chaotic;
there are feedbacks
that could
potentially switch sign,
and there are
central processes
that affect the system
in a complicated,
non-linear manner.
These complex, chaotic,
non-linear dynamics
are an inherent aspect
of the climate system.
As the IPCC WGI Second
Assessment Report
(IPCC, 1996)
has previously noted,
“future unexpected,
large and rapid
climate system changes
(as have occurred
in the past)
are, by their nature,
difficult to predict.
This implies that
future climate changes
may also involve
‘surprises’.
In particular, these arise from
the non-linear, chaotic nature
of the climate system. "
... “Reducing uncertainty
in climate projections
also requires
a better understanding
of these non-linear processes ... "