Total Pageviews

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Climate Proxies - The Hide the Decline Trick

You may assume climate proxies, 
such as ice cores, are only used 
to collect approximate temperature 
data for centuries before real time
thermometer measurements began
(late 1800s) ... and for CO2 level 
estimates before accurate real time 
CO2 measurements began 
in the late 1950s.

In fact, climate proxy data 
can be used 
for recent decades too.

Northern Hemisphere climate proxy 
evidence from tree-rings, bore holes, 
pollen, etc., consistently fails to show 
sharply rising temperatures after 1940.

One example:
In 2016, Dr. Pei Xing 
and co-authors 
unveiled a new method (MVDM) 
for calibrating low-frequency 
NH tree-ring data 
for the last 1,200 years 
in "The Extratropical Northern 
Hemisphere Temperature 
Reconstruction during the 
Last Millennium Based 
on a Novel Method."

Using 126 proxy temperature records 
from the Northern Hemisphere, 
they found a clearly visible 
Medieval Warm Period (950-1150) 
and Little Ice Age (1450-1850).

The smoothed MDVM reconstruction 
also exhibited a general agreement 
with reconstructed total solar irradiance, 
or TSI.

But the Xing et al. 
reconstruction 
of Northern Hemisphere 
temperatures 
revealed no net warming 
for the past 60 years, 
following a 1930s and 1940s 
temperature peak.






Many smarmy climate
proxy reconstructions 
stop at 1980 or 1990, 
and then splice on a
hockey-stick-shaped
rising surface temperatures
from thermometer records
from US-NASA, US-NAAO GISS, 
or England-HadCRUT).

As a result, the recent decades 
on the right side of their charts 
show significant warming. 

The purpose of splicing
two completely different 
data sources on the same chart 
is global warming propaganda: 

-- Constructing a temperature chart 
with an upward trend from left 
(the old days) to right (today) 
suggests dangerous warming ahead

 ... compared with a 100% 
climate proxy chart that showed 
no upward trend after 1940.

The most famous of these 
smarmy spliced charts 
is the now discredited 
Michael Mann
 "Hockey Stick Chart" 
that Al Gore loved, and 
probably still uses today
to scare people.

The multi-century 
"Hockey Stick Chart" 
didn't bother to mention 
that tree ring data 
showed no trend 
for many centuries, 
and then actually 
showed cooling 
in the past century
 -- but the cooling period 
was cut off, and replaced 
by surface thermometer data, 
that showed warming 
in the past century ! 

Deceptions like that 
are typical of 
government 
bureaucrat 
"scientists".

The lack of recently 
rising temperatures 
in most climate 
proxy evidence 
is called the 
“divergence problem”.

The “trick” of splicing on 
surface thermometer data 
for recent decades, even when 
proxy data are available, 
is called “Hiding the Decline”.





There were many 
"Hide the Decline" 
conversations found 
in the hacked
 "Climate Gate" eMails
 in 2009 and 2011:

 “…you really ought to replace 
the values from 1961 onwards 
with observed [instrumental] 
temperatures due to the decline.”



“I’ve just completed Mike’s 
(Michael Mann's) Nature trick 
of adding in the real temps 
to each series for the last 20 years 
(ie; from 1981 onwards) and 
from 1961 for Keith’s 
to hide the decline.”



“Also we have applied 
a completely artificial adjustment 
to the data after 1960, so they 
look closer to observed temperatures 
than the tree-ring data actually were” 


…. “Also, we set all post-1960 values
 to missing in the MXD data set 
(due to decline), 
and the method will infill these, 
estimating them from
 the real temperatures
 – another way of ‘correcting’ 
for the decline, though may be 
not defensible!”






There is a large and 
growing discrepancy 
between the 
surface thermometer 
temperature data and
all other temperature data, 
both real time data, 
and climate proxy 
reconstructions:

(1) 
Data that show 
little or no warming since 1940:
-- Most climate proxy studies


(2) 
Data that show little or no warming 
from late 1990s through 2018: 
-- Weather Satellite data, and 
-- Weather Balloon data 


(3)
Data show significant warming 
since 1980:
-- Surface thermometer data, 
with measurements that sample 
less than half of Earth's surface, 
supplemented by wild guesses 
to "infill" all other areas, 
and there are also
requent arbitrary 
"adjustments" of the
historical temperature data, 
going back to the 1800s ! 


Given the data choices,
 (1), (2) and (3), 
only a smarmy 
government bureaucrat 
"scientist" would chose (3),
while completely ignoring 
(1) and (2). 

And that's exactly what they do !

I would ignore (3).

And I bet you would too.





The claim that rising CO2 levels 
will cause runaway global warming, 
that will end all life on Earth,
is a hoax based on absolutely 
no scientific evidence. 

There is absolutely 
no scientific evidence 
of runaway warming in
the past 4.5 billion years, 
with CO2 levels 
higher than today 
almost the whole time
 -- 10x to 15x higher 
at the peak.

Claiming climate change
is an "existential threat",
is a propaganda tool used 
to control and manipulate
stupid, gullible people.

Some people use that 
propaganda to attack 
capitalism, and promote
communism: